Training alert: how Taiwan is preparing to go to war with China
Taiwan is actively preparing for a possible Chinese attack. Lai Qingde Island's leader, wearing a bulletproof vest and helmet, rode an armored personnel carrier to a secure command center, as he rehearsed his own emergency evacuation. Residents are also being prepared for an emergency scenario: 4G and 5G networks have been severely restricted for several hours. Moreover, until recently, the Pentagon admitted that Beijing could complete its preparations for war by 2027. How the armed conflict around Taiwan threatens the world and who benefits from such exercises — in the material of Izvestia.
The enemy is everywhere
Taiwan is rehearsing the first hours of a possible war with China. Large-scale military exercises "Hanguang" are taking place in the country, which involve not only the armed forces, but also civil services. This is the 42nd maneuver in a row - they have been preparing for a possible attack from the PRC on the island since 1984. The command and staff stage took place on April 11-24, and the practical phase started on August 5 and will last until the 14th.
One of the most revealing episodes was the evacuation of Taiwanese leader Lai Qingde. After receiving the threat signal, he put on a bulletproof vest and helmet, boarded an armored personnel carrier and went to the National Command Center for Political and Military Management, a protected facility from where the top leadership should continue to manage the island in the event of war.
Moreover, they tried to make the task as difficult as possible for a potential opponent. Three similar columns left the presidential residence at once, moving at different time intervals and on different routes. Taiwanese media believe that in this way the military tried to confuse Chinese intelligence and hide the whereabouts of the island's head.
The "decapitation strike" scenario is not new for Taiwan: similar actions were practiced by Lai Qingde's predecessors. However, for the current leader, who took office in 2024, such an evacuation was the first. Moreover, CNN even drew a parallel between the American operation to capture Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela and the scenario that was being worked out in Taiwan.
Ordinary residents are also being prepared for a possible war. Since August 7, the island has been checking the stability of the infrastructure and the actions of the population during air attacks. After the siren sounds, people should take shelter in specially designated places.
Another scenario being worked out involves a partial loss of communication. On August 10, the authorities for the first time deliberately reduced the speed of mobile Internet in some areas to 1% of the usual. The experiment lasted half an hour. Some users stopped sending messages, but voice calls and communication with emergency services worked.
The American way, but without guarantees
The current Hanguang has another feature — the Taiwanese army is increasingly adopting American methods of warfare. Now, having received the order, the junior commander must not only confirm it, but explain to his superiors exactly how he intends to complete the task. According to the plan, this should teach units how not to get lost if communication with the command is disrupted.
The American footprint is also noticeable in weapons. For example, the M1A2T Abrams tanks are being used in the exercises for the first time. In total, Taiwan has ordered 108 such machines from the United States, the last batch arrived on the island in April 2026. In addition, reservists train with M4A1 rifles.
"The most important innovation in the current Hanguang exercises is the introduction of American—style military training methods aimed at improving the coordination and combat readiness of the Taiwanese armed forces," William Yang, senior Northeast Asia analyst at the International Crisis Group, told AP.
Almost simultaneously with the start of the exercises, it became known about a possible new large-scale supply of American weapons to Taiwan. On August 4, Republican Michael McCaul said that the Donald Trump administration could soon send an arms package worth up to $14 billion to Congress.
"I am confident that President Trump will soon send to Congress the next package of critical military supplies worth up to $14 billion," he said. Taiwanese media are already discussing the possible content of the deal: we may be talking about hundreds of missiles for Patriot complexes, new radars and air defense controls. However, Washington has not yet made a final decision.
Moreover, according to the Pentagon, Beijing plans to increase its military potential for a military operation against Taiwan by the end of 2027, by the centennial anniversary of the People's Liberation Army of China (PLA). American intelligence clarifies that Beijing does not yet have a specific fixed plan or order for an invasion next year.
In the Middle Kingdom itself, the island's authorities are accused of destabilizing the situation. Zhu Fenglian, an official representative of the Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China for Taiwan Affairs, called the military maneuvers an empty bluff of the separatists. "In the face of the powerful People's Liberation Army of China, any maneuvers carried out by the authorities of the island's ruling Democratic Progressive Party are just an empty bluff," she said at a briefing.
What the experts say
Even a military scenario does not promise Beijing a quick victory. To capture the island, it will be necessary to transfer significant forces through the Taiwan Strait, and then ensure their supply in combat conditions.
— Given that Beijing somehow sets itself the task of restoring control over Taiwan, holding military exercises on the island looks quite logical. Taipei is working out plans and measures to counter possible PLA operations. The main risk for China will be the possibility of getting bogged down in this operation, since no one guarantees that it will take place quickly and effectively," Igor Korotchenko, editor of the National Defense magazine, tells Izvestia.
Taipei also benefits from Washington's support, which will be on the island's side in the event of a conflict. Russia, according to the source, will not fight on the side of China.
— There is no military alliance between Russia and China. Therefore, the Russian armed forces will not participate in repelling the actions of the United States if they join the conflict on the side of the Taiwanese leadership. China will solve this problem on its own," the expert notes, recalling that the Chinese military also did not participate in the fighting in the Kursk region.
The consequences of a possible collision will quickly spread far beyond the region. Evgeny Shatov, a partner at Capital Lab, calls the prolonged blockade of the island one of the most dangerous scenarios. Taiwan remains the most important center of global semiconductor manufacturing, and TSMC holds a dominant position in the production of the most advanced chips.
— A full-scale war over Taiwan could cost the global economy about $10 trillion in the first year. Even a naval or air blockade can cause several trillion dollars in damage. The most severe scenario involves a direct military conflict between China and Taiwan, with the possible involvement of the United States and its allies, which would mean a global recession, a collapse in stock markets and a large—scale disruption of production chains," the source explains.
The current exercises are intended to reduce possible damage to Taiwan. The authorities are checking how quickly businesses, the public and government agencies will be able to switch to backup communication channels and autonomous management.
— First of all, it is beneficial for Taiwan itself, as it increases the stability of the economy and civil infrastructure. Indirectly, the United States, Japan and other countries that are critically dependent on Taiwanese semiconductors benefit. For China, on the contrary, such measures reduce the potential effectiveness of pressure through cyber attacks, communications and infrastructure," the expert concludes.
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