Together is power: China has come up with a new way to annex Taiwan
Zheng Liwen, Chairman of the Kuomintang, Taiwan's main opposition party, has accepted an invitation from Chinese Leader Xi Jinping to visit China. For a long time, the Communists considered the authorities in Taipei to be enemies. Apparently, Beijing has switched to a new plan and will try to annex the island not by force, but with money. This development may be hindered by external players. For more information, see the Izvestia article.
The beginning of a new spring
Zheng Liwen became the head of the opposition Kuomintang party in October last year and immediately made it clear that, unlike her predecessor, who did not visit China during his tenure, she intends to get closer to China. The politician's first trip to China is scheduled for April 7-12, the Xinhua news agency reports. During his visit, Zheng Liwen is going to visit Beijing, Shanghai and the eastern province of Jiangsu.
Zheng Liwen
"We hope that the April visit will mark the beginning of a new spring for both sides of the Taiwan Strait and will be the first step towards showing kindness and building mutual trust," she told reporters.
The chairman of the Kuomintang promised that Beijing and Taipei "will work hard to ensure peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, making positive efforts, and will make the whole world feel at ease."
Lai Qingde, Secretary General of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party of Taiwan, has already expressed hope that Zheng Liwen will tell Chinese President Xi Jinping that "Taiwan is a sovereign, independent state."
This statement was made against the background of attempts by Lai Qingde's government to get parliament to approve additional defense spending in the amount of $40 billion. This is not so easy to do, given that the opposition holds the majority in the legislature. And the Kuomintang Party declares support for strengthening the island's defense capability, but demands more detailed information from the government, without intending to "sign blank checks."
Both yours and ours
Taiwan's plans to increase defense spending were actively supported by the administration of US President Donald Trump. At the same time, the United States takes a rather ambivalent position on the Taiwan issue. Washington established diplomatic relations with Beijing in 1979, and since then, the American authorities have called China one and indivisible, and the government in Beijing the legitimate representative of China. Taiwan, according to this, is considered part of the PRC. However, this does not prevent the United States from actively maintaining contacts with the administration in Taipei. In recent years, Washington has increasingly annoyed Beijing with visits by its senior politicians to the island, as well as the active support of local authorities.
In addition, it is the United States that is considered the main supplier of weapons to Taiwan. Washington provides unofficial protection for the island and periodically sends warships to the Taiwan Strait.
Taiwan's desire to buy weapons from Washington in the amount of $7 to $10 billion, including HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems, became known in February last year. The Pentagon recently confirmed that all US commitments to supply weapons to Taiwan will remain unchanged.
The island issue is likely to be discussed at Trump's meeting with Xi Jinping, scheduled for mid-May, Ekaterina Zaklyazminskaya, head of the Center for World Politics and Strategic Analysis at the Institute of China and Modern Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia.
— But he will definitely not be in the focus of attention of negotiators and leaders. They will mainly discuss trade issues and a further attempt to de—escalate the trade war, which was not over, but was only suspended," the expert stressed.
Both China and the United States are currently busy with other issues, as the countries are mired in their own problems, the expert is convinced.
"For Washington, these are the unpredictable consequences of the start of the military operation in the Middle East, for Beijing, the diversification of supplies, primarily of Middle Eastern oil, because approximately 56% of China's total oil imports passed through the Strait of Hormuz," the analyst explained.
A dangerous approach
In 1949, the government of the Republic of China, which at that time was led by the Kuomintang Party, was defeated in the civil war with the Communists of Mao Zedong and fled to Taiwan, declaring itself the only legitimate government.
Passers—by walk past an image of Sun Yat-sen, the leader and founder of the Kuomintang
Neither a peace treaty nor an armistice has been concluded, and neither side officially recognizes the other's government.
At the initial stage, the island part of the country was successful: until the 1970s, many states recognized the Republic of China, and it had a representative office at the United Nations. But in 1971, this status passed to the PRC. Despite the loss of diplomatic recognition, Taiwan continued to have its own government, army, and currency.
China considers Taiwan its territory, and the government of President Lai Tsingde considers the separatists. At the same time, despite the political differences, the economic ties between Beijing and Taipei are quite strong.
The ruling Democratic Progressive Party fears that with the help of the Kuomintang, Beijing is preparing a change of power on the island, seeking to annex it with the help of money. It is believed that a similar scenario was used for residents of Tibet, Hong Kong and the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR).
In XUAR and Tibet, Beijing invested heavily in education, infrastructure, and healthcare, and local businessmen from Hong Kong acquired highly profitable real estate in major Chinese cities.
The wording is important
China is betting on the Kuomintang Party, which is less inclined to peddle the topic of independence and which, in principle, can be negotiated with, explained the scientific director of the Russian Council on International Affairs (RIAC) Andrey Kortunov in an interview with Izvestia.
— Moreover, in general, the Kuomintang positions itself not as a Taiwanese party, but as a general Chinese party. That is, in this sense, their positions are closer to those of the CPC," the political scientist said.
However, it is important to keep in mind that Washington, despite the fact that all attention is now focused on the war in the Middle East, is clearly not going to concede Taipei to Beijing, the expert added.
"Opponents of the rapprochement between China and Taiwan — the United States and some European countries — will certainly try to counteract this," he said.
According to the expert, external players will rely on the most radical political groups advocating Taiwan independence.
— And here it is very important what position will be fixed during Trump's visit to Beijing in mid—May: will he confirm the standard obligations of the United States - the one-China principle, will he abandon the idea of protecting Taiwan in the event of a conflict or not? The wording will be very important here," the analyst emphasized.
Taiwan expected more
In any case, it's too early to talk about a possible rapprochement between China and Taiwan, Ekaterina Zaklyazminskaya is convinced.
— A series of visits by high-ranking officials from Taiwan to mainland China does not indicate that China and Taiwan plan to unite peacefully in the near future. Rather, it is an attempt to establish some kind of dialogue between the parties," she explained.
Taiwan is currently in a difficult situation, the political scientist noted. In particular, all expectations from cooperation with Washington have not been fulfilled, as there are certain delays in the delivery of military equipment promised by the White House.
"Also, this trade deal, which the Taiwanese side had been negotiating with Washington for a very long time, was unexpected because Taiwan expected more assistance and support from the Trump administration," the expert said.
In addition, the analyst noted as an important factor the situation in the Middle East, which directly affects Taiwan, which is very vulnerable in terms of energy infrastructure.
— As far as we know, Taiwan has a very low margin of safety in the field of gas supplies. According to the data for March, the island, in fact, had a strategic reserve for literally 11 days, while most of the energy resources came from states friendly to the United States," the expert noted.
Taking advantage of this, Beijing will try to gradually show certain advantages from cooperation with the mainland, Zaklyazminskaya admitted. Most likely, China will continue this work, but it will do it rather slowly and carefully.
The United States is mired in chaos
In turn, American political scientist Malek Dudakov believes that the Middle East crisis is exacerbating the political split in the camp of the Asian allies of the United States.
"The developments in Taiwan are very significant. It is not a fact that Trump's visit to China will take place. The American leader wanted to come to China in the guise of a conqueror of Iran, who is able to blackmail Beijing by cutting off oil flows. As a result, the White House got bogged down in a difficult conflict," the expert said in his Telegram channel.
This, according to the expert, only weakened the negotiating position of the United States.
"The Kuomintang members, who have a majority in the Taiwanese parliament, watch footage of burning American bases and understand perfectly well that the United States is not able to protect them. The reputational losses from the war with Iran will have far—reaching consequences for Washington," the analyst warned.
He added that the island was experiencing an acute energy crisis, as Taiwan received 40% of its hydrocarbons through the Strait of Hormuz. The island has enough gasoline reserves until May, but gas — only until April.
"Then there will be disruptions in chip production, which will be another shock to the global economy. There are local elections ahead, in which a landslide victory of the Kuomintang is expected," Dudakov admitted.
After that, a representative of the party may take the presidential chair for the first time in 10 years, the political scientist did not rule out.
"The last time the leaders of the Kuomintang held direct talks with Beijing was in 2015. And now, with their visit, they show that, if they win the elections, they are ready to start drifting towards China from the United States, which is mired in self—provoked Middle Eastern chaos," he concluded.
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