Experts explained the growth of the dollar and assessed the prospects of the ruble

The growth of the dollar above 82 rubles is associated with several factors at once — from an increase in purchases of foreign currency by the Ministry of Finance to a decrease in demand for ruble assets. Denis Astafyev, an entrepreneur, fund manager and founder of the SharesPro fintech platform, explained the weakening of the national currency to Izvestia on August 7.

"From August 7 to September 4, the Ministry of Finance will allocate 136.17 billion rubles to increase purchases of foreign currency and gold, and the daily volume of purchases will amount to about 6.5 billion rubles. This is about 20% more than a month earlier. The reason for the change in the volume of operations was the growth of oil and gas budget revenues amid rising oil prices. Since the beginning of July, the price of oil has increased by almost 20%, but the market remained unstable: quotes over the past week have moved in a wide range — from levels above $ 100 per barrel to around $ 80," the expert explained.

Additional pressure on the ruble, according to Astafyev, is exerted by the end of the period of large tax payments by exporters, expectations of changes in US monetary policy and new sanctions risks. The weakening of the ruble is explained by several factors acting simultaneously. So far, the combination of budget operations, geopolitical uncertainty and the situation on foreign markets speaks more in favor of a moderate depreciation of the exchange rate, rather than a quick return to previous values.

Another factor remains the changing attractiveness of ruble assets. After the reduction of the key rate by the Bank of Russia to 14% per annum in July, the profitability of deposits and other instruments is gradually decreasing, which may affect the demand for foreign currency.

At the same time, as Andrey Glushkin, managing partner of Main Division and member of the General Council of Delovaya Rossiya, noted, the growth of the dollar is associated not only with the actions of regulators, but also with a change in the balance of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market. According to him, export earnings decreased due to lower oil prices in June, while demand for foreign currency from importers increased. An additional factor was fuel purchases amid production cuts following attacks on Russian refineries.

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The reduction of the Central Bank's foreign exchange sales operations under the "mirroring" mechanism of the National Welfare Fund also had an impact.

"Now there are no prerequisites for a sharp collapse of the ruble, but there are no strong signals for its strengthening yet. The most likely scenario remains a moderate weakening of the national currency," Glushkin believes.

According to the expert, in the coming months, the dollar exchange rate may be in the range of 79-84 rubles. The dynamics will be influenced by oil prices, import volumes, the actions of the Ministry of Finance within the framework of the budget rule, the geopolitical situation, as well as further decisions of the Bank of Russia on the key rate.

According to experts, the dollar's return to lower levels is possible if several conditions are combined.: stable growth in oil prices, a decrease in demand for foreign currency from importers and the continued attractiveness of ruble assets. At the same time, a quick return to the values of spring 2026 still looks unlikely. Experts note that the current dynamics are more like an adjustment after a period of relative stability of the ruble than the beginning of a sharp currency crisis.

The estimated dollar exchange rate rose above 82 rubles on the same day for the first time since March 26, according to the Central Bank. By 11:02 Moscow time, the US currency added 43 kopecks relative to the previous close, reaching 82.01 rubles.

On August 4, the regulator set the official dollar exchange rate at 80.07 rubles. A day earlier, the official exchange rate of the US currency was 79.46 rubles, the European currency was 91.19 rubles, and the Chinese currency was 11.76 rubles.