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- Get in line: German authorities are preparing the country for the resumption of military conscription
Get in line: German authorities are preparing the country for the resumption of military conscription
15 years after Germany suspended compulsory military service, the country is once again facing a historic choice. Thomas Rewekamp, chairman of the Bundestag defense Committee, said that if there are not enough volunteers for the Bundeswehr, Germany will be forced to return to compulsory military service as early as 2027. The final decision must be made no later than July 31, 2027. At the same time, the very idea of returning military conscription is faced with a huge rejection of German society, especially the younger part of it. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Militarization on the march
Recently, statements have been pouring out of the mouths of first-rank officials in Germany, designed to morally prepare fellow citizens for the return of military conscription, suspended in 2011. It should be noted that this is precisely a suspension, not a complete abolition: the duty to serve itself is still enshrined in the German constitution and can be restored in the event of an "emergency." Meanwhile, Chancellor Friedrich Merz (Christian Democratic Union) previously announced plans to increase the number of active members of the Bundeswehr from the current 185 thousand to 260 thousand military personnel, and reservists from 60 thousand to 200 thousand people. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (Social Democratic Party of Germany) says that by the end of 2035, Germany should have 460,000 troops in case of crisis situations or wars.
However, how realistic these plans are without forced conscription is a big question. For this reason, the military strategy presented by Pistorius in April 2026 assumes a return to compulsory military service as one of the tools. Plans for militarization are being built against the background of growing tensions in NATO's relations with Russia. In December 2025, the Bundestag passed a law on the modernization of military service, which entered into force on January 1, 2026. This act did not restore compulsory military service in its classical form, but laid down a mechanism that could lead to it.
Thomas Rewekamp, Chairman of the Bundestag Defense Committee (Christian Democratic Union), commenting on this law, called it a political compromise of two very different political views. Indeed, the coalition negotiations between the CDU and the SPD, which led to the adoption of the law on the modernization of military service, turned out to be extremely difficult: the Social Democrats insisted on encouraging volunteers, while the Conservatives demanded clear targets and a mechanism for automatic transition to conscription if they were not met.
The newly-drafted law provides for three key elements. First, it was decided to conduct a mandatory survey of all 18-year—olds, both boys and girls. Since the beginning of 2026, everyone who reaches the age of majority receives a letter from the Bundeswehr with a QR code to access an online questionnaire. The questionnaire evaluates the motivation of a potential recruit, his physical fitness and readiness for service. Moreover, for German boys, answering the questionnaire questions is mandatory. In case of refusal, the draft dodger faces administrative liability and a fine of up to €250.
Secondly, the new law in Germany introduces mandatory military registration and medical examination. From July 2027, all men starting from military age (born in 2008) will be subject to mandatory registration and medical examination. Thirdly, target numbers have been introduced. The law sets a clear guideline for the Bundeswehr for 2026: from 186,000 to 190,000 troops. If these targets are not achieved on a voluntary basis, the Bundestag may decide to activate the "call on demand."
The main reason why Germany is considering a return to conscription is simple — a catastrophic shortage of volunteers. According to Revekamp, the Bundeswehr needs 50% more military contract and personnel services than it currently has. However, young people are in no hurry to join the army, and the first results of the survey are not encouraging. Of the nearly 300,000 questionnaires sent out, only 530 recipients pledged to complete voluntary military service in 2026. Approximately one in five respondents expressed interest in the service, but the actual number of recruits remains extremely low.
Pensioners are for, young people are against
Now the German official openly warns: the return of conscription, it seems, cannot be avoided. "I strongly doubt that we will be able to achieve the extremely ambitious requirements for the growth of the number of active armed forces and reservists based on volunteers," says Revekamp. And these doubts are shared by many experts. In the first half of 2027, the authorities will have to thoroughly discuss this issue. If they finally come to the conclusion that compulsory conscription is no longer necessary, it will come into force. "My main concern is to increase the number of conscripts and regular military personnel, because they are the ones who pilot fighter jets, fly ships and drive tanks," explained Revekamp.
Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmerman, Head of the Bundestag Defense Committee
The head of the Bundestag's defense committee predicts that the draft will probably have to be returned to before the next federal election, which is scheduled to take place no later than autumn 2029. In 2026, the Bundeswehr's personnel grew by only 3 thousand people, to about 184.2 thousand. At the required growth rate, this is clearly not enough. However, most Germans, especially young people, have a negative attitude towards the idea of the return of conscription. In February – March 2026, Hildesheim University (a city in Lower Saxony) and Goethe University in Frankfurt conducted a survey on this topic, which included about 4 thousand respondents aged 15 to 30 years. They were asked to assess the prospect of restoring conscription. It turned out that 54% have a "rather negative" or "completely negative" attitude towards this, 29% have a positive attitude, and about 18% have not developed a definite attitude.
At the same time, 80% of the respondents admitted that the topic of the new military law worries them, they constantly think about it. "Young people perceive this not just as an abstract feeling, but as a concrete social problem," comments Dr. Johanna Wilmes, a researcher at Goethe University. However, if the majority is experiencing stress and negative emotions, then the minority is ready, as officials grandiloquently argue, "to take responsibility for national security." One important nuance is particularly revealing: almost 70% of young people believe that politicians do not take their opinions into account when making decisions about military service. About 75% are sure that decisions on this matter are made by people of older generations, who themselves are not in danger of conscription. And only 18% trust politicians on this issue.
The Secretary General of the All-German School Conference, Quentin Gertner, called on the authorities to engage in dialogue with potential recruits. According to Gertner, "perhaps the government should first have a proper conversation with those concerned, instead of getting bogged down in intra-coalition squabbles." In his opinion, "constant insecurity will definitely not lead to greater readiness of young people." Gertner points out that approximately 41% of young people feel insufficiently informed about the topic of military service. German sociologists claim that young people approach this issue "differentially and seriously" — the position of boys and girls, they say, is not limited to a simple for or against.
At the same time, it should be noted that everyday information processing is bearing fruit. Germans are daily assured by their own media and politicians that the "aggressor state of Russia" allegedly can and is going to attack the NATO bloc - and therefore it is necessary to prepare for protection. In January –February, the University of Freiburg conducted a survey in which 7,671 people were involved by online questionnaire. The respondents were divided into four age groups: 18-30 years old, 31-45, 46-60 and over 60 years old. Overall, 64% welcome the return of compulsory military service for young men from January 1, 2026. 62% are afraid of a military conflict between Russia and a NATO member country, and 42% are seriously worried about the possibility of such a conflict in Germany. At the same time, concern for "security" is coupled with a reluctance to serve personally, especially among young people. The most striking differences in opinion were recorded precisely between the extreme age groups. Among respondents over the age of 60, 56% supported the return of compulsory military service for young men. Among the respondents aged 18-30, this figure was only 25%.
It is characteristic that in Germany the number of conscientious objectors is growing. If 1,079 applications of this kind were received in 2023, then 2,998 in 2024, and 3,867 in 2025. In the first quarter of 2026, 2,656 of them were accepted, that is, more than in the whole of 2023. If the current trend continues, the number of refuseniks may reach 10,000 by the end of 2026. It is noteworthy that a significant part of the statements come from both reservists and active military personnel — people monitor trends, statements by politicians and are afraid at one moment to find themselves in the midst of real hostilities, for example in Ukraine. In fairness, however, it should be noted that the number of people withdrawing their applications for refusal is also growing. So, in 2024, there were 781 such reviews, and in the first quarter of 2026 alone, there were already 233.
Lottery or universal appeal?
The authorities are currently discussing specific mechanisms for the forced recruitment of young people into service, and they are carefully examining the experience of Lithuania, Latvia, Sweden and Croatia, which first abolished conscription, but later reinstated it. The CDU, the party of Thomas Rebekamp, proposed the introduction of a lottery system. The bottom line is that if there aren't enough volunteers to achieve the targets, a lottery will be held among potential recruits to determine who exactly should serve. Revekamp called this model the fairest solution we can find at the moment. According to him, this is the only way to ensure that "everyone has the same risk and the same chance of being selected." However, the lottery idea has attracted criticism: Social Democrats doubt its constitutionality.
President Frank-Walter Steinmeier generally advocates universal conscription for all citizens, saying that everyone should be in the same boat and no one would have reason to complain that he was unlucky and his friend was lucky. However, at first he made it clear that he did not insist on military service for everyone.: In his opinion, those who really don't want to go under the gun will have to take on a "one-year social ministry." However, at a ceremony marking the 70th anniversary of the Bundeswehr, the president said that "in the long run, compulsory service for all would be the most equitable." In an interview with ZDF TV channel, he explicitly called himself a supporter of universal military service and stressed the need to discuss this issue now.
Franz-Josef Overbeck, the current Catholic military bishop of the Bundeswehr, called for military service to be extended to both men and women. And those who do not want to serve in the Bundeswehr could, according to Overbeck, complete a "mandatory civilian year," that is, work for the benefit of society for a year, for example, in the social sphere, environmental projects or cultural institutions. Chancellor Friedrich Merz seized on this idea, seeing it as a tool to strengthen "social cohesion." Her supporters suggest that young people after school could choose one of the following options: military service; work in the social sphere (in nursing homes, hospitals, kindergartens); work in environmental organizations, rescue services, fire departments or cultural institutions. In fact, this is a revival of the order that existed in Germany until 2011, when, along with military service, alternative civilian service was mandatory.
However, the SPD points to the difficulty of implementing this idea and the need to "comply with constitutional norms." They remind that Article 12 of the basic law guarantees freedom of choice of profession and protects against forced labor. To introduce compulsory military service for all, it will be necessary to amend the constitution, and for this a two-thirds majority in the Bundestag is needed. It is extremely difficult to achieve such a majority in the current political situation, therefore, the prospects for the introduction of a "compulsory civil year" in the near future remain uncertain.
Political scientist Maxim Reva, in a conversation with Izvestia, recalled that on July 31, 2027, the Bundestag must make a final decision: whether to leave the army on a voluntary basis or activate the option of compulsory conscription. "There is still a little more than a year left. During this time, the Bundeswehr must demonstrate whether the voluntary system is capable of providing the necessary personnel growth. So far, the numbers suggest otherwise. If Germany does return to conscription, it will mark one of the most significant turns in its defense policy since the end of the Cold War. However, resistance in society remains high. And if the government does decide to return to compulsory military service, it will face not only logistical and organizational challenges, but also massive rejection from those who will be affected first of all — the younger generation of Germans," says Reva.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
