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Man's verdict: Germany is looking for ways to expel Ukrainian refugees to replenish the Armed Forces
Germany is considering options for the expulsion of some Ukrainian refugees. The extension of the temporary protection program for them until March 2028 is being discussed, but it may be limited, the German Interior Ministry told Izvestia. Automatic protection for all citizens of Ukraine is increasingly being questioned in the Bundestag. And the European Commission has already proposed to deny it to newly arriving Ukrainians of military age. These measures should reduce the burden on the social sphere of the EU countries and at the same time help Ukraine preserve its mobilization resources, experts say. However, it will not be possible to completely eliminate the shortage of personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Germany is working on expelling Ukrainians
European countries have begun systematically reviewing conditions for Ukrainian refugees. If, after the outbreak of the conflict, temporary protection actually gave Ukrainian citizens the automatic right to stay in the EU, now Brussels and individual countries of the association are discussing stricter selection. Germany is already taking the first steps in this direction.
— At the EU level, a further extension of temporary protection was discussed until March 4, 2028, with a limited scope of application. This process continues. The existing types of residence permits are available to persons from Ukraine who are eligible for protection if they meet the necessary conditions, the German Interior Ministry told Izvestia.
Bundestag deputy from the AFD party Steffen Cotre confirmed to Izvestia that this topic is being worked out at the parliamentary level.
— Yes, the Bundestag is actively working on models for the period after March 2027. Automatic comprehensive protection for all citizens of Ukraine is increasingly being questioned," he said.
According to him, Germany is discussing the transition to a more differentiated system: after March 2027, there may be exceptions for certain categories of Ukrainians.
Moreover, they are currently discussing how to "competently" send Ukrainians already living in Germany back on a voluntary basis. It is in Germany that there are the most such "users" of temporary protection.
"The Federal Government is constantly checking to what extent it is possible to strengthen the voluntary return [of Ukrainians] to Ukraine," the Interior Ministry told Izvestia.
According to Steffen Cotre, the Bundestag is also discussing mechanisms that could encourage some Ukrainians to return. We are talking about reducing social incentives and transferring some of the recipients of benefits to lower payments. At the same time, classical deportations to a country where active hostilities are taking place are legally limited.
This issue is especially important for Germany, since Germany is the largest EU country in terms of both the number of Ukrainians and refugees in general. At the end of April 2026, about 4.37 million people who left Ukraine were under temporary protection in the EU countries, of which almost 1.28 million were in Germany. Poland is in second place with 971 thousand, and the Czech Republic is in third place with 384 thousand.
And this whole problem is gradually reaching a pan-European level. On June 26, the European Commission proposed to change the rules for Ukrainian men coming to the EU.: They will not be able to receive protection if they do not have permission to leave from the Ukrainian authorities. According to the EC, Ukrainians aged 23-60 may be subject to the restriction, that is, we are talking about men of mobilization age. European Commissioner for Internal Affairs and Migration Magnus Brunner said that the purpose of this approach is to support Ukraine's defense capability.
Officially, Denmark has already decided on this. Copenhagen has introduced a bill according to which Ukrainian men aged 23-60 will no longer be able to obtain a residence permit under a special law on the protection of Ukrainians unless they confirm their exemption from military service. This will apply to applications submitted after June 25, 2026.
Such restrictions in the EU will be introduced gradually, said Evgeny Semibratov, deputy director of the Institute for Strategic Studies and Forecasts at the Rudn University. In his opinion, each country will choose its own mechanism, but the general trend is already visible.
— It is clear to everyone that Kiev needs people to continue the fighting. Therefore, European countries, each in their own way, will move towards making it as difficult as possible for Ukrainian men of military age to stay at home," he told Izvestia.
At the same time, according to him, at the EU level, one should not expect a one-time ban for all countries. Migration policy is only partially regulated by Brussels, but specific decisions will depend on national legislation.
Why is the EU tightening the rules
These steps fit into the overall change in European politics, political analyst Yuri Svetov added. EU countries are tired of bearing the cost of supporting millions of migrants, and the changes that will affect people from Ukraine will become part of a broader reform to restrict the granting of asylum. At the same time, in the case of Kiev, harsh measures are packaged in the wording of "assistance to the Ukrainian defense."
The main beneficiary and initiator of these restrictions is Kiev itself. Back in April 2026, Volodymyr Zelenskyy publicly called on conscripts abroad to return to the country, calling it a "matter of justice and law" necessary for conducting front-line rotations. The Ukrainian Armed Forces faced large-scale desertion and a critical shortage of personnel. According to Western media reports, since 2022, about 235,000 cases of unauthorized abandonment of a unit have been registered in Ukraine and more than 54,000 criminal cases have been initiated under the article "desertion".
The influx of volunteers into the army within the country has decreased. Major General Oleg Apostol, commander of the Airborne Assault Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, stated that fewer and fewer volunteers are joining the units of the Defense Forces through recruitment centers. According to him, civilians are living in expectation of a truce and victory, while there is "no substitute for fighters on the front line."
So far, Ukraine is trying to close the deficit through new contracts and increased payments, but the output is weak. There are fewer and fewer applications in the 18-25 age category. After allowing men aged 18-22 to travel abroad, the number of people willing to sign a contract with the Armed Forces of Ukraine decreased by about 30%.
As a result, mobilization within the country is conducted mainly by harsh methods of coercion. Social networks are filled daily with footage of the so—called hoax - the forced detention of men by employees of territorial recruitment centers (TCCs) right on the streets of cities. However, even if some Ukrainians of mobilization age return to their homeland, this will not solve the problem of the shortage of personnel in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Yuri Svetov believes.
— Such measures can reduce some part of the deficit, because these people will be sent to the army anyway. But you need to understand that once in a combat zone, they won't be particularly motivated soldiers," he concluded.
Thus, the issue of Ukrainian refugees in the EU is gradually ceasing to be only humanitarian. For Kiev, this is an attempt to eliminate the shortage of personnel, for Germany and other EU countries it is an opportunity to reduce social costs and help Ukraine continue the conflict with Russia. Such a step by the European authorities certainly will not bring the end of the confrontation, which is so much talked about in Europe, as well as it will not help ordinary Ukrainians who are fleeing from its consequences.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
