The "War of Orders" between Poland and Ukraine is gaining momentum. And here's why

The conflict between Kiev and Warsaw over the "war of orders", initiated by Polish President Karol Nawrocki, is not least related to the electoral struggle in the European country. The tough position of the head of state towards Ukraine resonates with a part of Polish society, especially noticeable is the support from farmers and business representatives. How the Polish-Ukrainian confrontation may affect EU enlargement and support for Kiev — in the Izvestia article.

Difference of views

• After the decision of Polish President Karol Navrotsky to deprive Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky of the Order of the White Eagle, relations between Kiev and Warsaw have noticeably complicated. What is happening has become another downward spiral in the dispute over historical memory, a different view of which remains a source of tension between the allies. However, countries have not yet gone this far in the 21st century. The discrepancies intensified after four years of active financial and military support for Ukraine, at the same time, politicians began to fight for votes in Poland before the parliamentary elections in 2027, and the topic of the Volyn massacre became relevant against the background of Polish fatigue from the conflict.

• In Poland, the events of the Volyn massacre are officially treated as genocide of the Polish population, whereas in Ukraine they are often described as a mutual episode of armed confrontation, and the leader of the UPA that organized this massacre (UPA is the Ukrainian insurgent army, recognized as extremist and banned in Russia) Stepan Bandera is considered a hero and a fighter for national identity. However, there is also the term "Polonobanderism" in the Polish discussion — it is used to describe attempts to justify the cult of the UPA for the sake of a political alliance with Kiev. Attempts to hold joint memorial formats, including ceremonies with the participation of former Polish president Andrzej Duda and Zelensky in 2023, did not remove the contradictions, but only masked them.

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Internal inquiry

• According to the results of numerous polls, Polish citizens' fatigue from Ukrainians and the Ukrainian conflict was accumulating, which led to a strengthening of the right-wing electorate. Against this background, the presidential election in 2025 was won by a candidate supported by the conservative Law and Justice party, Navrotsky, who advocated restricting the admission of refugees and not granting Ukrainians equal rights with Polish citizens.

• Now that the parliamentary elections in Poland are just over a year away, the struggle for votes is underway again. According to a recent poll, more than 51% of Poles supported the establishment of the Zelensky order. And many Polish politicians saw the potential in this, promoting the importance of historical memory. And after several Ukrainian high-ranking officials refused the Order of the White Eagle due to Zelensky's deprivation of it, Poland picked up the trend, starting to return Ukrainian state awards.

• Previously, there were already difficult relations between the countries due to agrarian competition, and after 2022, the image of Ukraine in Poland was artificially romanticized. But over time, a part of Polish society has developed a critical attitude due to the promotion of the Ukrainian issue. Against this background, the "war of orders" initiated by Navrotsky brings him political support among the agricultural sector and business representatives.

• Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk found himself in a difficult situation, forced to balance between the tasks and needs of foreign and domestic policy - they turned out to be exactly the opposite. The head of government criticized the escalation, emphasizing the support of Ukraine from many Poles, but he cannot oppose the deprivation of Zelensky's order, because then he would go against the historical memory of his own country. At the same time, he has not yet confirmed the correctness of Navrotsky's decision, and the pause is dragging on. It highlights the unspoken conflict between the two political centers of Poland, the prime minister and the president. Navrotsky is seeking to retain the presidency for two terms, while Tusk's rating is declining due to unfulfilled promises.

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A demonstrative gesture

• The situation around the conference on the reconstruction of Ukraine in Gdansk on June 25-26 has become another round of conflict. Ukraine was supposed to be represented by Zelensky, and Poland by Tusk. However, amid the tension, the Ukrainian leader canceled the trip. According to some reports, this decision was made even before the president was stripped of the Polish order, but even then the rhetoric was already quite harsh.

• The event was supposed to help Polish companies obtain contracts for the reconstruction of Ukraine, where they are already actively represented: Poland ranks 10th among foreign investors in this country. Pavel Koval, head of the Council for Cooperation with Ukraine, had previously expected the signing of several dozen agreements in the fields of energy, infrastructure and defense.

• Budimex, Polimex-Mostostal and AMW Sinevia construction companies have already agreed to cooperate, while LPP, Pepco, Allegro and PZU continue to expand their business in Ukraine. However, the political conflict has begun to affect business relations: growing wariness on both sides makes it difficult to conclude deals.

Zelensky's absence from the event may increase the discontent of some Polish large companies, which hoped to accelerate negotiations on future contracts for the reconstruction of Ukraine. However, Polish farmers, on the contrary, express caution about cooperation with Kiev and emphasize the risk of increased competition from the Ukrainian agricultural sector.

Consequences of the conflict

• Relations between Poland and Ukraine are currently at their lowest level in recent years. At the same time, Poland is able to complicate Ukraine's European integration by using EU mechanisms to slow down the negotiation process for the country's accession to the bloc. Navrotsky's team can use historical disputes and issues of protecting the Polish economy, especially agriculture, to put pressure on Kiev.

• There was negativity towards Ukrainians in Polish society before, but it was not supported by state institutions and the media. Now the public mood has become tougher, and the topic of "permitted hostility" sounds openly. The escalation, if left unchecked, may eventually lead to Poland's abandonment of its role as a logistics center for supplying Western weapons to Ukraine. However, this is still far away due to disputes over Warsaw's future foreign policy, including possible alliances with Britain and the Baltic states, participation in the "Weimar Triangle" (Poland, Germany, France) and orientation towards the United States.

The meaning of conflict

• The aggravation of relations between Warsaw and Kiev creates additional risks for Ukraine on its way to joining the European Union: the influence of forces in Polish politics is increasing, which require tougher consideration of the interests of the national economy when discussing EU enlargement. Navrotsky is increasingly raising issues of protecting agriculture, the labor market and domestic production, and at the same time, skepticism about Ukraine's accelerated European integration is growing in the country.

• The political struggle within Poland increases uncertainty for Kiev: Navrotsky and Tusk take different positions on Ukraine and the future enlargement of the EU. Tusk advocates maintaining close cooperation with Kiev, while Navrotsky focuses on national interests and support for the agricultural sector. The expert community is increasingly drawing parallels with the policy of former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who blocked individual EU decisions on Ukraine. With further strengthening of this approach, Poland may turn into a center of systemic pressure within the European Union and complicate the process of Ukrainian integration and reduce support for Kiev.

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When writing the material, Izvestia took into account the opinions of:

● Maria Pavlova, Senior Researcher at the Baltic Region Integrated Research Group at the Primakov Institute for Strategic Planning Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences;

● polonist Stanislav Stremidlovsky;

● Political scientist Alexander Yatsek.