Urgent contact: why the US and Iran will not be able to establish lasting peace

The first round of negotiations between the United States and Iran has started in Switzerland on the second attempt. The meeting was held in an extremely difficult atmosphere of mutual distrust due to the latest threats from Donald Trump, who promised to destroy Iran. In addition, Israel flatly refused to stop the operation in Lebanon. Experts emphasize that insurmountable disagreements over Tehran's nuclear program and the upcoming elections to the US Congress reduce the chances of achieving lasting peace to a minimum. The story of why the Iranian delegation threatened to leave the venue of the talks and whether Washington would be able to persuade Israel to stop the fighting is in the Izvestia article.

How was the first day of negotiations between Iran and the United States?

One of the key conditions of the memorandum just concluded between the United States and Iran was the commitment of both sides to adopt a final peace agreement within no more than 60 days.

U.S. Vice President Jay D. Vance, who flew to Europe as a matter of urgency, said that his priorities during the talks would be "making progress" in the nuclear field and a cease-fire in Lebanon. In addition to him, the American delegation included Special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner.

The negotiations are held in the strictest secrecy, however, judging by leaks in the media, in a very difficult atmosphere. Right during the meeting, Donald Trump, who is in Washington, threatened that the United States would "blow Iran to hell" if it broke the deal and tried to interfere with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, representatives of Tehran rejected the Americans' request for a joint photo shoot and a public handshake during the negotiations. A number of media outlets even wrote that the Iranian delegation allegedly left the venue in protest because of Trump's threats, but this information was soon denied by other journalists.

The Iranian side in Switzerland is represented by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif and Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman Al Thani are key international mediators at the talks.

Iran and the United States signed a memorandum last week without Israel's participation, so the Jewish state did not consider it necessary to comply with its terms by continuing its operation in southern Lebanon against Tehran's ally, Hezbollah. Thus, the very first condition of the memorandum – the complete cessation of hostilities – was violated.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stressed that his country will adhere to national interests regardless of what Washington wants.

— We have achieved great achievements and we will not give up on them. We will remain in the "security zone" in southern Lebanon for as long as necessary," he said, commenting on the memorandum between the United States and Iran.

Deal under fire: Israeli strikes threaten U.S.-Iran truce

Tel Aviv demonstrates that the US-Iranian agreements do not concern them.

In addition to this problem, other issues were discussed in Switzerland. According to one version of the memorandum that appeared in the media, the United States pledged to lift international sanctions against Iran, as well as its restrictions that would allow Iran to sell oil. The conditions also prescribe the unblocking of Iran's frozen assets. Naturally, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is also in the spotlight. The ideal scenario involves ending the American blockade of Iranian ports and ensuring Iran's unhindered movement of ships from the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and vice versa.

But if the deal falls through, the United States will seize Hormuz and begin to levy duties on passing ships, Trump threatened.

"The United States can become the guardian angel of the Strait of Hormuz and take 20% of the oil," he said. However, the US president will not be able to put his threats into practice in any way, since Washington does not have the right to charge shipping fees in international waters, says Farhad Ibragimov, an expert and lecturer at the Economics Faculty of the P. Lumumba RUDN University.

— It smacks of some kind of absurdity, which is peculiar to Trump. I don't believe he has such leverage," he told Izvestia.

Will the United States and Iran succeed in establishing a long-term peace

One of the main stumbling blocks remains the notorious issue of the "nuclear deal." According to the memorandum, Iran must commit itself never to produce nuclear weapons. Yesterday, Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said that Washington and Tehran had reached an agreement to reduce the level of enrichment of the Islamic Republic's uranium reserves. He explained that the reserves are still "underground."

—America asked to remove Iran's nuclear reserves, but we have come to a decision to reduce [the level of] enrichment," he said.

However, the parties are unlikely to be able to finally resolve the "nuclear issue" in two months, which was discussed together with European countries, Russia and China for two and a half years during the presidency of Barack Obama, Farhad Ibragimov recalled. At the same time, the Iranian authorities will never accept a deal where there is a clause on non-enrichment of uranium, the president of the Islamic State (IS, a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation) Masoud Pezeshkian emphasized earlier.

The second problematic issue remains the cessation of hostilities in southern Lebanon. It is unlikely that the United States will be able to force Israel to finally curtail its military operation against Hezbollah, Vladimir Sazhin, a senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said in a conversation with Izvestia. He recalled that the war in Lebanon has been going on for many years, and Netanyahu clearly intends to finish what he started. However, there is a possibility that Israel, at Washington's request, will declare a cessation of hostilities for a short time to conclude an agreement, after which it will return to the operation, Farhad Ibragimov believes.

Put on pause: will the United States and Iran have 60 days to negotiate peace terms?

Arab oil has already passed through the Strait of Hormuz, and fuel prices have begun to fall.

Thus, in the next 60 days, the United States and Iran are unlikely to be able to conclude a deal that will establish peace in the region for many years, the expert believes. The problem is that the parties share irreconcilable differences. Neither Washington nor Tehran believes that all the points of the memorandum will be implemented in the near future, Vladimir Sazhin believes.

— The Trump and Tehran administrations are playing a "big game." Trump needs to present the whole Iran story as a victory over him as soon as possible due to the upcoming congressional elections. As for Iran, it needs an early cessation of hostilities," the expert says.

Elections to the US Congress will be held in November and, according to political analysts, Trump's Republican Party is likely to lose control of the House of Representatives, after which the head of the White House will not be able to pass key laws, becoming a "lame duck." In this regard, it is extremely important for him to show the voters that he was able to emerge victorious from the crisis in the Middle East, which he also unleashed. And that's why a beautiful picture is more important for Washington now than the real world for many years to come.