Put on pause: will the United States and Iran have 60 days to negotiate peace terms?
The 60-day countdown has begun for Iran and the United States, during which they must reach a final agreement. Moscow hopes that Washington and Tehran will be able to achieve a long-term peace, the Russian Foreign Ministry told Izvestia. The deal provides for the restoration of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a partial easing of US sanctions and the resolution of the Iranian nuclear program. The first point looks the most realistic, while the fate of sanctions and enriched uranium raises questions. Experts are skeptical about the prospects for a full settlement of the conflict and call the memorandum only a way to temporarily freeze it. Who will benefit from the signing of the memorandum and what are its pitfalls — in the material of Izvestia.
Will Iran and the United States be able to reach a final agreement
Weeks of uncertainty in the Middle East have finally ended with a concrete result. On the night of June 18, the United States and Iran signed the so—called Pakistani memorandum of understanding, during which time Islamabad acted as a key mediator between the parties. The document entered into force immediately.
The previously agreed memorandum was planned to be signed on June 19 in Geneva. However, the denouement came unexpectedly and behind the scenes: Donald Trump and Masoud Pezeshkian signed the documents remotely. At the same time, the head of the White House was in France for the G7 summit and signed right in the Palace of Versailles under the gaze of Emmanuel Macron. The French leader did not participate publicly in the negotiations, but he was obviously pleased with his role in this story, given his constant peacemaking ambitions.
The memorandum was personally commented on by Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, stating that it was he who gave permission for its signing.
"From now on, we, that is, you, the proud people, and I, your humble servant, will wait for the fulfillment of the stated conditions. However, it is obvious that future face—to-face negotiations will not mean accepting the enemy's opinion," Khamenei said.
At the same time, he stressed that he would not accept the excessive demands of the American side.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Alimov expressed hope that the terms of the memorandum would be respected.
"Let's just wait to see how the negotiators behave, who, we hope, have managed to reach agreements today within the framework of this memorandum and will be able to develop them to achieve long—term peace in the region," he told Izvestia.
The rush to sign an agreement — while it exists only in electronic form — most likely solves several problems at once. The parties maintain the legend of the lack of direct contacts, and also deprive third countries of the opportunity to disrupt agreements, Farhad Ibrahimov, an expert and lecturer at the RUDN University Faculty of Economics, an expert on Iran, explained to Izvestia.
In addition, Iran probably does not want to distract people from the most important event — the republic is preparing for the funeral of the deceased Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. And Independence Day is approaching in the USA: this year the country celebrates 250 years since its formation. And the midterm congressional elections are just around the corner.
— Trump is aiming to show by July 4 that he has concluded an agreement even with such a recalcitrant and difficult country as Iran, and that the deal is significantly better than the one signed by Obama (the 2015 nuclear deal. — Ed.), — said the political scientist.
The United States and Iran now have at least 60 days to discuss all differences and agree on all problematic points. Otherwise, Donald Trump is ready to resume strikes. At a press conference after the G7 summit, he bluntly stated: "If we don't solve everything in 60 days, it's okay, let's go back to bombing."
It's not a matter of time constraints, because the parties have been negotiating for the last two months. The problem is different: the future agreement will be fragile in any case, says Murad Sadigzade, head of the Center for Middle East Studies.
— Most likely, the conflict will not end, it will simply be frozen, in my opinion, until the end of the year. It should be understood that this Middle Eastern theater of military operations is only a part of global transformations and confrontations. We are getting closer to the peak. And the situation won't change for the better," he said.
The Americans will still be forced to lean towards the most anti-Iranian position of Israel, which is already working on combinations to break off the dialogue between Washington and Tehran, Ibrahimov emphasizes.
— If Washington and Tehran really conclude a full-fledged agreement and the Americans adhere to it, then they sign up to their geopolitical capitulation in the Middle East. Trump will go down in history as the man who started the war and lost it in full. This is such a second Vietnam War, only in a shortened form," he said.
Problems of settlement between the United States and Iran
So far, there is progress only in the situation around Hormuz. Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif noted that it was with him that the settlement would begin: Tehran opens the strait, and Washington lifts the blockade on Iranian ports. As a result, according to CNN and CNBC, on June 18, Iranian ships set sail with oil for the first time in two months. In addition, the media reported on the passage of several supertankers under the flag of Saudi Arabia through the strait.
The markets immediately reacted to this fact. On the morning of June 18, WTI crude oil fell by 2.3% to $75 per barrel, and Brent by 2% to $78. This is already far from the hundred-dollar peaks during the escalation of the conflict.
However, Iran is clearly not going to completely give up control over the strait, through which almost a third of the world's oil exports went before the war. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Bagai said that Tehran protects the safety of navigation and is ready for consultations with neighboring states. But he added a detail: there will be a fee for "services". According to unofficial data, Tehran will begin to introduce this fee only after those 60 days have expired.
It will be difficult to agree on sanctions. The Iranian Foreign Ministry demands that everything be lifted: the primary and secondary US sanctions, the restrictions of the UN Security Council and the decisions of the IAEA Board of Governors.
— Nothing is clear: neither the scope of the parties' obligations, nor the content of this agreement, nor the legal basis for lifting sanctions. There may be some relief in terms of oil. And negotiations on all other positions will be extremely difficult. I assume that in these 60 days, the first step will be to discuss the unblocking of Iran's frozen sovereign assets (about $100 billion). — Ed.), — says Ekaterina Arapova, head of the research program at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies.
There is also a nuance here: there are few of them in American jurisdiction, and most of them are blocked by banks in third countries that fear secondary US sanctions, the expert noted. In addition, this is a painful step for Washington: the White House has been deterring Iran for years precisely by blocking its accounts. The idea of returning money to Tehran has already caused a flurry of criticism even among Trump supporters. And the White House is unlikely to give away billions without strict guarantees.
The main requirement of the United States concerns the nuclear program, and this is still the most vague point of the agreement. According to media leaks, the deal obliges Iran to remove radioactive materials from the country. Russia has repeatedly stated that it is ready to help with this based on its experience. However, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Bagai immediately stated that the enriched uranium would remain in the country. Instead of exporting, Tehran proposes dilution, that is, the processing of highly enriched uranium into low—enriched uranium so that it cannot be used to create weapons. Bagai stressed that Iran will continue to develop a peaceful atom for its needs.
If the uranium remains in Iran, then Washington's key goal will be a failure. But Trump's trademark pragmatism may work here. Sadigzade believes that the United States can impose a new contract on Tehran, under which American companies themselves will supply fuel for Iranian reactors. However, Iran is already working closely with Russia in the nuclear field, which is building the Bushehr nuclear power plant.
Construction of the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant power unit
As a result, the deal still looks unequal. The world is simply regaining a secure trade route, and Iran is getting a chance to lift sanctions and revive the economy, which it could not have dreamed of until recently. There is still room for bargaining on the nuclear issue. Western media agree that Trump has not yet achieved the goals for which he started the war. This means that the risk of a new escalation, whether it is a sluggish conflict or a large—scale war, remains high.
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