Give or take: Houthis and Somali militants are rewriting the rules of the game in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

Militants of the Somali radical group Al-Shabab (recognized as a terrorist and banned in the Russian Federation) visited the resource-rich provinces of Shabwa and Al-Bayda in Yemen to negotiate with the Houthis from the Ansar Allah movement and the local wing of Al-Qaeda (recognized as a terrorist and banned in the Russian Federation), Yemeni media reported with reference. to sources in the security service. The parties discussed the transition from tactical cooperation in the field of arms trade and intelligence sharing to systematic interaction in logistics, finance and joint operations. About how ideological opponents become allies against the background of a major war in the Middle East and what this can lead to is in the Izvestia article.

From tactical cooperation to strategic alliance

The UN Group of Experts on Yemen previously considered that an alliance between the Iranian-backed Shiite Houthis and the Sunni jihadist group Al-Shabab (recognized as a terrorist and banned in the Russian Federation) is hardly possible, since there is "no ideological basis" between them.

Previously, relations between Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (recognized as a terrorist organization and banned in Russia) and the Houthis were more of a confrontation, as the latter sought to establish their control over an increasingly expanding territory. However, gradually the parties began to make prisoner exchanges. As Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula weakened, its relationship with the Houthis only deepened.

Photo: TASS/AP

In 2022, the parties concluded a non-aggression agreement, which put an end to the clashes between the factions. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula helped link the Houthis to Al-Qaeda's affiliate, Al—Shabab, based in southern Somalia.

Back in 2024, American intelligence reported meetings between the Houthis and Al-Shabab militants, who, as the newspaper notes, "operate maritime and smuggling networks along the coast, including networks associated with Somali pirates." This coast gives them a significant logistical advantage for smuggling goods across the Gulf of Aden.

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Mutually beneficial cooperation

According to the UN and African think tanks, Al-Shabab is receiving from the Houthis something it has never had before — modern military technology. It's not just about small arms. The Houthis, who have Iranian support behind them, transfer knowledge to the Somalis on the production of complex improvised explosive devices, as well as training them in working with drones and surveillance drones. Resources and logistics are the price for help.

UN experts and analysts at Chatham House note that in exchange for weapons and training, Al-Shabab is stepping up piracy activities in the Gulf of Aden, attacking cargo ships and collecting ransoms, some of which go to the Houthis. In addition, Somali networks provide the Yemeni movement with access to the African coast, which is used as a transit hub for Iranian weapons and, according to some reports, for drug trafficking, which is an important source of income for Ansar Allah. All of this could dramatically change the balance of power in the Horn of Africa.

Photo: Global Look Press/IMAGO/Hamza Ali

Now, according to American publications, the Houthis and Al-Qaeda are expanding the supply chain of terrorist materials, in addition, they are exchanging weapons, technologies related to the use of drones, and training fighters from Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and Al-Shabab.

"This proves that their cooperation goes beyond ideological differences and threatens the proliferation of advanced weapons," Jamestown writes in this regard.

The authors of the publication are confident that if the structures associated with Al-Qaeda receive opportunities for their own production of missiles or drones that the Houthis have, then "this knowledge will spread throughout the global network of jihadists."

"The growing cooperation poses a serious threat and may contribute to terrorist attacks," the newspaper reports.

The Yemeni "foothold" and the threat to Bab el-Mandeb

The main question facing the international community after this meeting is: what to expect from the alliance in the context of the war with Iran? The Houthis have repeatedly stated their readiness to block the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Arabian Sea with the Red Sea and leads to the Suez Canal. Hussein al-Ezzi, Deputy Foreign Minister in the Houthi government, recently stated on the social network X that if Sanaa decides to close the strait, "neither humans nor jinn will be able to open it."

Photo: Global Look Press/Bulkin Sergey

The alliance with Al-Shabab makes this threat more realistic and multidimensional. If the Houthis launch a full—scale blockade from the north, that is, from Yemen, their allies may create a second front from the south, from Somalia, attacking ships or using captured ports for mining and surveillance. This will effectively turn the entire Bab al-Mandeb region into a completely unsafe zone.

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Moreover, according to the intelligence services of the United States and Israel, the Houthis are seeking to strengthen their positions not only in Somalia, but also in Sudan, trying to create a permanent military outpost on the African continent to threaten shipping and Israel. The American White House counterterrorism strategy of May 2026 has already included cooperation between Al-Shabab and the Houthis in the list of urgent threats.

Dangerous for the global economy

This meeting in Yemen means not just another stage of negotiations, but a change in the role of non-State actors in the Middle East. Sunnis and Shiites have pushed aside their religious differences for access to power and resources. The Houthis are able to operate in the Horn of Africa through their allies, as well as put pressure on global trade. Al-Shabab is a chance to turn into an army armed with drones and modern explosive devices.

Photo: Global Look Press/Abdulnasser Alseddik

Bab el-Mandeb is a critically important artery not only for oil, but also for container traffic from Asia to Europe. Blocking it or turning it into a war zone would deal a blow to the global economy.