The political scientist estimated the chances of holding a referendum on Scottish independence

Ivan Pyatibratov, an associate professor at the Financial University, assessed the chances of holding a referendum on Scotland's independence from the United Kingdom.

In an interview with the Mail News on Wednesday, May 27, the expert noted that in Scotland the topic of independence is raised regularly and often becomes a key political tool of the Scottish National Party (SNP), which uses it to strengthen its position in power.

"In this regard, the idea of independence is a lifesaver for the SNP. Scotland's independence has become especially popular against the background of the activities of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who is under enormous pressure after the scandal surrounding the Epstein case and in connection with the reduction of social support measures in the country," the political scientist emphasized.

According to him, the Scottish National Party has recently been facing serious problems due to corruption scandals and declining living standards amid rising prices. The expert noted that against the background of what is happening in the UK, interest in independence in Scotland is periodically growing, but society remains divided. According to him, if at the beginning of 2026 there were slightly more than half of the supporters of independence, now the majority, on the contrary, supports the preservation of the union.

He stressed that such a division has been characteristic of the country for a long time and recalled that in the 2014 referendum, 55% of residents voted for Scotland to remain part of the United Kingdom.

At the same time, the expert believes that the chances of a new referendum are low now, since its holding requires London's approval, and the current government is unlikely to take such a step due to the risks of weakening its position.

A divided kingdom: Scotland is once again talking about a divorce from the United Kingdom

A referendum on secession of the region may be held in 2028.

Earlier in the day, it was reported that the Scottish Parliament had approved a call for a referendum on independence from the United Kingdom. The initiative was supported by 72 deputies, 55 opposed. Two more abstained, writes RT. Thus, the supporters of independence won a symbolic victory, although London still has the final say, the website notes. kp.ru .

In May, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told reporters that he had no intention of resigning. Rumors of his resignation appeared after the failure of the Labor Party in the elections and the loss of control over the Welsh parliament. The politician himself stated that he was not going to leave and planned to participate in the election of the prime minister in 2029, the National News Service reported.