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- A divided kingdom: Scotland is once again talking about a divorce from the United Kingdom
A divided kingdom: Scotland is once again talking about a divorce from the United Kingdom
The issue of Scottish independence has once again found itself at the center of British politics. The Scottish National Party (SNP), which remains the largest political force in the region, insists on holding a repeat vote on secession from the United Kingdom, despite the tough position of the British government. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Not new conversations
In Scotland, there is renewed talk of holding a referendum on secession from the United Kingdom. The corresponding proposal was supported in the parliament (Holyrood) of the region by 72 votes to 55. The First Minister of Scotland, John Swinney, then demanded that the government of the United Kingdom respect the opinion of the people's deputies and pointed out that the region had received a "clear mandate" to hold a second independence referendum. In the near future, Swinney intends to discuss this issue with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The vote may take place in 2028.
The SNP leader has repeatedly said that the party will seek a new vote if it wins an absolute majority in the elections on May 7, 2026. This did not happen — according to the results of the vote, his party won 58 out of 129 seats in the legislature. Another 15 candidates were elected to parliament by the Greens, who also advocate the independence of the region. Nevertheless, Sweeney is determined.
John Swinney at a press conference after being elected leader of the ruling National Party of Scotland. The year 2024
In the autumn of 2025, he drew a parallel with the 2011 elections, when the SNP won the majority, which led to the 2014 referendum.
Last year, the Scottish Government presented a number of policy documents on independence. One of them, "Your right to decide," says that it is the residents of the region who must make a choice about what its constitutional future will be. It also calls on the UK Government to declare its commitment to respect the right of the people of Scotland to choose their future.
Another document, A New Beginning with Independence, sets out the reasons why Scotland should become independent, as well as what it might look like in the event of separation. In particular, it argues that an independent Scotland will be able to manage its energy resources more efficiently, reduce dependence on the volatility of global gas prices, ensure a higher level of well-being for the population, and much more.
Can Scotland actually leave the UK
Despite the constant talk of a referendum, Scotland's exit from the UK remains controversial. If, for example, the separation of Northern Ireland from the United Kingdom is regulated by the Northern Ireland Act of 1988, then Scotland's situation is different. According to section 30 of the Scotland Act 1998, Holyrood cannot independently appoint a referendum on independence. To do this, he needs the approval of the official London. Keir Starmer also said that there would be "no second referendum" as long as he remained prime minister.
Scottish Independence March in Glasgow
Thus, there is now a situation in which Edinburgh demands a new vote, and Westminster refuses to authorize it.
After the 2014 referendum, London's position was based on the fact that it was declared a "one-generation vote." It turns out that the issue should be closed for decades to come.
Prerequisites for a new round of discussions
A new wave of talk about Scottish independence did not arise today, the issue has been under consideration for many years. Nevertheless, there are some factors that are pushing for a discussion about withdrawal.:
Brexit. Perhaps one of the main prerequisites was the UK's withdrawal from the European Union. In the 2016 referendum, 62% of Scottish residents opposed this, but the region was forced to leave the union along with the whole country. The SNP uses this argument as proof that Scotland's interests are not taken into account by London. Supporters of independence believe that seceding from the kingdom will allow the breakaway country to return to the European political space.;
Trust in Westminster. The low approval of the British parliament remains traditional. According to data from 2023, only 21% of Scots believed that Westminster would act in the best interests of Scotland. The rapid change of the country's prime ministers also influenced the discontent. The rating of the current head of the British government also remains low.;
Economic discontent. The Scottish government believes that the UK's economic model does not work for the region. The standard of living is not improving, and energy prices are high. It is also argued that the country's economy is too heavily concentrated in London and the south-east of the country, and attempts to reduce regional inequality have failed.
Among other factors, the failed fight of the then government against Covid-19 stands out.
There are also a number of pros and cons of Scotland leaving the UK. The first category for the government of the region, of course, includes return to the EU and control over public administration (a fully independent Scottish government will control constitutional issues, energy, immigration. It will also be able to determine its defense, social and foreign policy).
A poster at one of the bus stops in Edinburgh. Year 2021
But there are still disadvantages. The rest of the United Kingdom is Scotland's largest trading partner. This relationship may be put to the test if it comes to separation. In 2023, the UK accounted for about 60% of Scottish exports.
A separate discussion is unfolding around the issue of finance. As long as Scotland remains part of the United Kingdom, its budget deficit is included in the total UK deficit. In 2024-2025, Scotland's nominal budget deficit increased more than that of the UK as a whole (11.6% versus 5.1%).
At least in the short term, Scotland will also lose access to many organizations, including the UN and NATO.
The 2014 referendum
The first and so far only referendum on Scottish independence was held on September 18, 2014. The vote was the result of an agreement between the UK government and the Scottish authorities following the SNP's victory in the 2011 regional elections.
The main question was: "Should Scotland become an independent country?" At that time, 55.3% of Scots opposed independence, and 44.7% supported secession from the UK.
One of the polling stations during the Scottish independence referendum. The year 2014
The then British Prime Minister, David Cameron, said after the vote that the issue had been resolved "for a generation to come."
However, since then, attempts have been made more than once to hold a new vote. Governments in London have consistently refused to grant appropriate powers to the Scottish Parliament.
It was expected that the referendum could be held in 2020, but due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the issue was postponed. It is noteworthy that during the coronavirus, support for the issue of secession reached a record high — 58% of Scots supported independence. A new proposal for a referendum appeared in 2022, and the vote was planned to be held in 2023. However, in November 2022, London did not give approval.
What's next?
After the 2014 referendum, it was actually possible to postpone the discussion about Scotland's separation "for a generation to come," but opinion polls remain at about the same level as they were more than 10 years ago. Some experts note that 45% now is rather the lower limit of support for independence. Therefore, it can be concluded that at the moment it is too early to consider this issue a thing of the past.
On the other hand, recent polls show that more than 50% of Scots still oppose separation. But there is a long distance between the desire for independence and its real achievement. Even if support for the idea of independence grows, London is able to block the process.
Thus, the prospects for Scotland's real secession from the United Kingdom remain uncertain. Most likely, the political confrontation between Edinburgh and London will continue in the foreseeable future.
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