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- Relaxation without hugs: what has changed in relations between Ukraine and Hungary after Orban's departure
Relaxation without hugs: what has changed in relations between Ukraine and Hungary after Orban's departure
Hungary has softened its rhetoric towards Ukraine after the scandalous elections and Viktor Orban's resignation from the post of prime minister. The parties managed to resolve several painful issues, including oil supplies. However, there is no need to talk about a complete idyll: Budapest still demands that Kiev respect the rights of national minorities. Izvestia investigated the situation.
Gold by batch
Crucial parliamentary elections were held in Hungary on April 12. Following the results of the vote, the Fidesz party and its chairman Viktor Orban, who had been in power for 16 years, were defeated. The Tisa association, headed by the young leader Peter Magyar, received the majority of mandates and the right to form a government.
Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar
After that, Hungary began to review the country's foreign policy, including relations with its closest and most problematic neighbor, Ukraine. Immediately after the elections, Kiev unblocked oil supplies via the Druzhba pipeline, which had been on pause for three months before.
Budapest responded by lifting its veto on the granting of a European loan of €90 billion to Kiev and the adoption of the 20th package of anti-Russian sanctions. At the same time, the general staff of the Hungarian armed forces began to curtail the troops that were stationed near power facilities under Orban to protect them from the alleged Ukrainian attack.
In addition, the epic with the Ukrainian collectors of Oschadbank ended, who were detained in Hungary in early March with $ 40 million and € 35 million in cash, as well as 9 kg of gold. Under Orban, these people were accused of money laundering, and it was unofficially said that the funds were intended to finance the post-election Maidan.
Under Magyar, all seven detainees were released, and the police reversed their decision to ban these people from staying in the Schengen area. The Hungarian side also returned cash and gold to Kiev. "I am grateful for the constructive and civilized step," Volodymyr Zelensky said in this regard.
Finally, on May 13, after the Russian strike on Transcarpathia, the Russian ambassador was summoned to the Hungarian Foreign Ministry for the first time. Under the previous authorities, Budapest limited itself to calls for a peaceful resolution of the conflict after such incidents. After the current meeting, Russian diplomat Yevgeny Stanislavov said that he had quoted to the host the publications of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, which report attacks exclusively on AFU targets.
The Transcarpathian question
All this, however, did not remove the main contradiction between Kiev and Budapest, which concerns the situation of ethnic Hungarians in the Transcarpathian region of Ukraine. After taking office as Prime Minister, Peter Magyar said that the neighboring state would have to fulfill 11 conditions for the normalization of bilateral relations and further European integration.
Half of the items on this list relate to the field of education. Budapest wants the children of Transcarpathian Hungarians to be able to study and take state exams in schools, colleges and universities in their native language. This clearly contradicts the entire educational policy that Kiev has been pursuing for many years.
In addition, Budapest demands that the course towards total Ukrainization be abandoned altogether. According to these wishes, Hungarian in Transcarpathia should be freely used in the media, cinema, theaters, advertising, when citizens apply to government agencies, clinics and hospitals. The emphasis is also on lifting restrictions on the use of national symbols, that is, it will not be possible to interfere with the placement of Hungarian flags.
The third part of the requirements concerns the political and administrative-territorial structure. Budapest asks to recognize Transcarpathia as a territory where "Hungarians traditionally live," that is, to actually agree to the creation of autonomy. In addition, it is required that the national minority has its own guaranteed representative in the Verkhovna Rada.
I must say that similar desires were voiced by Viktor Orban's government back in 2024. The problem for Ukraine is that meeting these conditions will mean, in fact, abandoning the country's long-standing policy of building a unitary Ukrainian state. It is clear that if other national communities move towards Budapest, they will also declare similar wishes, and then it may turn out that Russians also have their rights.
It is impossible to simply dismiss Hungary, because it is part of the European Union, where it uses its veto power. Actually, under Viktor Orban, Budapest was considered the main obstacle to Kiev's European integration. "Our position is crystal clear: Ukrainians cannot be in the EU if they do not comply with European legislation on the protection of national communities," said former Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto.
Now the parties are trying to restart the dialogue. In particular, on May 18, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiga held telephone talks with his new Hungarian counterpart Anita Orban (the namesake of the former prime minister). After the conversation, he said that Kiev was supposedly ready to cooperate on minority issues. Expert-level consultations began on May 20.
Peter Magyar also phoned the President of the European Council, Antonio Costa, to whom he informed about the start of negotiations on the situation of ethnic Hungarians. It is expected that in June, the new Hungarian prime minister will meet with Vladimir Zelensky in the Transcarpathian city of Beregovo.
In this regard, there is talk in Ukraine that the country is now rapidly integrating into the status of a full-fledged EU member. Some decisions could allegedly be made as early as the next summit of EU leaders on June 18-19. However, there are many doubts about this. Firstly, Kiev and Budapest are unlikely to be able to move beyond simple consultations in a month. Secondly, it is doubtful that Ukraine has really embarked on a radical change in its policy.
Thirdly, even if agreement is reached between the countries, Kiev's European integration will remain a problematic issue. The fact is that Brussels really doesn't need to take care of Ukraine in crisis. It is characteristic that on May 21 it became known about the letter that German Chancellor Friedrich Merz sent to the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and the head of the European Council Antonio Costa.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz
In his message, he notes that full-fledged membership of Ukraine is impossible in the near future. According to him, instead, Nezalezhnaya may receive the status of an associate member of the EU without the right to vote. If Ukraine backs down in the negotiation process or departs from the values of unification, then Brussels will be able to lower this status.
Works for 30 years
Any Hungarian government will fight for the rights of ethnic Hungarians, says Vadim Trukhachev, a political scientist and associate professor at the Department of Political Science at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
— Hungary is a national state. The country's constitution stipulates that the authorities are obliged to protect the rights of Hungarians outside the country. That is, the Magyar in this case acts simply in accordance with the law. Actually, for Orban, this was the basis of foreign policy, in this sense, nothing has changed in the country," he emphasizes.
At the same time, the new authorities of the republic treat Russia worse than the previous government, but not Ukraine any better, the expert adds.
— I am sure that there will be no European integration of Ukraine in the near future, there is simply no money and desire for it now. First, Brussels will deal with the membership of the Balkan countries, which in Europe, by the way, include Moldova. They will think about Ukraine sometime later, although talks about joining will be very active, because they motivate Ukrainians well to continue the fight against Russia," the source clarifies.
Meanwhile, former Verkhovna Rada deputy Spiridon Kilinkarov does not rule out that Ukraine and Hungary may indeed find common ground on some issues.
— Kiev can satisfy some of the demands on the situation of the national minority, and the Magyars will probably soften the rhetoric somewhat. It is beneficial for both sides to show that they have turned over the previous page in the relationship. At the same time, the contradictions between the two countries will not go away, because the new Hungarian authorities adhere to conservative, right—wing positions," he argues.
However, there will be no accelerated entry of Ukraine into the EU, the Izvestia interlocutor is convinced. Hungary, he said, may abandon its intransigent position, but will insist that Kiev integrate into Europe on a common basis, without any preferences.
— And this is a job for 20-30 years. It is difficult to imagine the fulfillment of some points at all. For example, Brussels demands that the personnel policy in law enforcement agencies be transferred under its control. All this will be discussed for many years to come," Kilinkarov is confident.
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