Changing of the guard: what do Budapest think about the future of relations with Russia?

The victory of the Tisa party in the parliamentary elections in Hungary is recognized by all parties. A few hours after the polls closed, Viktor Orban congratulated his opponent Peter Magyar on his victory, and there are no protesters on the streets of Hungarian cities who would challenge the results of the vote. Experts are confident that Hungary's foreign policy will now be in line with the EU's general policy towards Russia. What is the situation in the country after the opposition's victory, why local residents are equally critical of Orban, Trump and Zelensky, and what the election results mean for Russia, the United States and the EU — in the Izvestia report from Budapest.

The situation after the elections in Hungary

Budapest, the morning of April 13th. Residents go to work, tourists walk along the Danube — the city lives its own life. Only the posters remind us that parliamentary elections were held the day before, following which Peter Magyar, leader of the opposition Tisa party, won. Prime Minister Viktor Orban's 16-year rule is coming to an end - a new government should be formed by mid—May.

For the first time in many years, a new person will be in power who is "definitely no worse than Orban," Budapest residents say in an interview with a correspondent of Izvestia.

According to preliminary data from the Central Election Commission, Tisa claims 136 of the 199 seats in parliament, while the Fidesz bloc and the Christian Democratic People's Party claim only 56. If the opposite had happened, thousands of people would probably have taken to the streets. The media wrote that Tisa was preparing for protests against the "falsification" of the elections. There were no rallies, but the youth celebrated the victory of the Magyar all night, some of them chanted anti-Russian slogans from the time of the Hungarian uprising of 1956.

"I voted for Tisa," said Bender, a student from Budapest. According to him, he has many Russian friends, and he regularly spends time with some of them, but the young man admits that he does not like Russia.

"We don't need it. I don't like both Trump and Zelensky. I understand that Zelensky is trying to defend territories, but so many people are dying because of it. I think this is wrong," the source says.

Hungarians cannot be called apolitical — the turnout for the elections was over 77%. However, it is probably not accepted in the country to be unnecessarily open about politics (especially with a stranger from Russia). Nevertheless, they all emphasize that if they communicate with Russia, it is only for the sake of developing economic relations.

— Russia is important, but as a business partner, we receive oil and gas from it. However, we should not be too close to Russia," says Budapest resident Balazs.

On April 13, Peter Magyar, who had previously actively advocated pro-European positions, said that Hungary was open to pragmatic cooperation with Russia. The politician stressed that Budapest would not stop buying Russian oil, seeking to purchase it at the most favorable prices.

"Our energy dependence on Russia will also remain, and we will negotiate," Magyar said.

Moscow has stated that it is open to dialogue and is interested in building good relations with Budapest. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that the Russian side is ready to build relations with the new Hungarian government, and everything depends on its understanding of national interests.

— We are waiting for what will happen next. Until a new government is formed and begins work, it is too early to talk about any specifics in relations between Russia and Hungary. We should wait at least two or three more months," a diplomatic source familiar with the situation told Izvestia.

According to him, Hungarians have always been mainly interested in energy cooperation with Russia. At the same time, it is important to understand that Magyar himself used to be a member of Fidesz, and also adheres to conservative views, like Orban.

Hungary is almost the only European country that has retained direct purchases of oil, gas and nuclear fuel from Russia. Peter Magyar noted that the termination of Russian oil supplies via the Druzhba pipeline jeopardizes Hungary's energy supply. At the same time, it is not clear whether the timing of the Paks-2 NPP construction will change. Earlier, Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said that the power plant should be connected to the national grid by the early 2030s.

Relations with Russia under the new government will be cold, says Hungarian political analyst Gabor Stier.

— Magyar says he wants to talk to Putin, advocates pragmatic relations, but I think his party will pursue the same policy towards Russia and Ukraine as it does in Brussels. Russia and Hungary will try to maintain some kind of cooperation in the energy sector, but we will not be friends," he told Izvestia.

Relations with the EU, the USA and Ukraine

Another issue is the future of Hungary's relations with the European Union in the context of the Ukrainian crisis. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk congratulated Magyar on his victory. The Magyar's visit to Warsaw is scheduled to take place in May.

According to the Financial Times, Brussels expects the new leadership in Budapest to take steps to unblock financial assistance to Ukraine, lift the veto on sanctions decisions and review a number of measures (including migration policy) adopted under Viktor Orban and found to violate EU rules.

Peter Magyar made it clear that he opposes the accelerated admission of Ukraine to the European Union. He said that the issue of Kiev's membership would be put to a referendum, but Kiev was unlikely to be able to become an EU member in the next decade. In addition, Magyar stressed that Budapest should not participate in providing Kiev with an EU loan of €90 billion. He stressed that Hungary is in a difficult economic situation and cannot afford to take out new loans. At the same time, the leader of Tisa expects that he will be able to attract EU financing in the amount of about € 20 billion.

— The EU will ask Hungary to resolve the first important issue that led to the EU's funding freeze on Hungary in recent years: namely, the rule of law. Tisa will do its best to ensure that all issues related to the rule of law are resolved in the eyes of the European Commission, regardless of whether this is really the case, in order to receive the money as soon as possible," Valdai Club member and analyst Andrea Bianchi told Izvestia.

Those who voted for Magyar expect that Hungary will now improve relations with Brussels, and this will improve their economic situation. For Budapest, a typical European capital, this is as important as possible. There are places in the city (especially in the tourist center) where there are practically no Hungarians. Instead, they are Italians, Germans, Romanians, British, Serbs, Australians and representatives of many other nations. The Hungarians surveyed believe that the situation with the EU will improve, and it is good if they receive more money from the European Union.

Relations with the United States and the administration of Donald Trump may remain a problem. Many Budapest residents dislike the American leader because of his harsh statements and aggressive policy in the Middle East. A few days before the election, Vice President Jay D. Vance arrived in Hungary to support Viktor Orban, but this did not have the desired effect.

"Vance should have come sooner. But I'm not sure that Trump is a reliable partner. Especially because of the US war against Iran. I don't want Hungary to be involved in wars," Balazs said.

Hungarian Prime Minister-to-be Peter Magyar said he wants good relations with the United States of America, but will not call the head of the White House, Donald Trump. According to him, the United States is a very important partner with whom Hungary needs good relations.