Developers estimated a reduction in the key rate to 14.5%

Lowering the key rate to 14.5% is a supportive step by the regulator for the economy and at the same time a critically important decision for the housing market, as it will strengthen demand, which has decreased due to restrictions on preferential mortgages, and attract "non—preferential" buyers. Svetlana Pinigina, founder of Pinigina Consulting, told Izvestia about this on April 24.

"There is already some warming in the market, but further growth in consumer activity requires the consolidation of this trend. Project launches partially depend on the project financing rate: they will take place on the already signed terms anyway, in the absence of a systematic reduction, the launches may be postponed in anticipation of more favorable conditions," she said.

For the real estate market, the trend towards a steady decrease in the key interest rate is a positive signal that stimulates the recovery of pent-up demand, agreed Sergey Goncharov, General Director of the Razvitie Group of Companies. At the same time, real estate is becoming a more reliable tool for saving capital, taking into account the lower profitability of deposits.

"Stability of conditions remains important for developers. Even a small rate adjustment does not have an immediate impact on the cost of project financing, so the focus shifts to internal efficiency: flexibility of transactions, product quality, infrastructural development of projects, and so on," he stressed.

Against this background, customer behavior is changing, added Dmitry Sofronov, Commercial Director of DARS Group. If six months ago loans were considered at the level of about 14%, now the main guideline has shifted to values below 10%.

"This is due to an increase in the cost per square meter, which follows an increase in the cost of building materials and works," he said.

Olga Nart, Deputy General Director of the Luchi resort, noted that the trend towards a gradual reduction in the key rate will continue. Over the past couple of weeks, analysts at two banks have agreed that it could drop to 12-13% by the end of the year.

"Most likely, the regulator will move carefully — in small steps of 0.5 percentage points (percentage points. — Ed.). If this scenario is implemented, it will be an important signal to support the business, which is currently going through a difficult period," the expert believes.

According to him, reducing the cost of borrowing will ease the debt burden and will be able to give an impetus to the unfreezing of investment projects. At the same time, the dynamics of inflation will remain a key factor: the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, in his opinion, is likely to act "as cautiously as possible" to avoid its repeated acceleration.

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The press service of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation reported on the same day that the members of the Board of Directors decided to reduce the key rate by 50 basis points to 14.5% per annum. The statement noted that the dynamics of domestic demand has now approached the opportunities for a potential expansion of the supply of goods and services, while the indicators of steady price growth have remained in the range of 4-5% in annual terms.

The last time representatives of the Russian Central Bank took the same action was on March 20. Then this figure was lowered to 15% per annum. Four days later, the head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP), Alexander Shokhin, said that the Central Bank needed to reduce the key rate to 14%.