The economist predicted a pullback of oil to $ 90 with progress in the dialogue between the United States and Iran

World oil prices are fluctuating sharply amid the worsening situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the breakdown of negotiations between the United States and Iran. Denis Astafyev, an entrepreneur, fund manager and founder of the SharesPro fintech platform, told Izvestia about this on April 22.

"The market is currently trading not the fundamental, but the news stream in real time. If the fighting resumes, $110-115 will become a real point of attraction. If the negotiations move forward, a rollback to $90 is possible," the expert noted.

According to him, the first wave of fluctuations occurred when Brent crude oil fell by more than 9% amid signals about the partial opening of the Strait of Hormuz and possible negotiations. However, quotes later regained their decline, adding over 5% after reports of the seizure of an Iranian US Navy vessel and the resumption of hostilities in the region.

The second wave of rising oil prices occurred on April 21, when it became known about the breakdown of negotiations: the Iranian side refused to participate in the meeting, and the United States actually put the diplomatic process on pause. Against this background, the price of Brent exceeded $102 per barrel, showing an increase of about 7% in less than half a day.

Astafyev stressed that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which remains de facto blocked, remains a key factor. Even with a formal truce, oil supplies are not being restored due to the continued US military presence off the coast of Iran.

The expert noted that the further dynamics of the market will depend on the development of the conflict and the negotiation process. In the event of an escalation, prices may continue to rise, while diplomatic progress may lead to a decline in quotations.

Between the first and the second: US demands threaten to disrupt the truce with Iran

Trump allowed the resumption of hostilities after the expiration of the ceasefire

Iranian MP Ahmad Naderi said on April 21 that Iran would not hold a new round of talks with the United States until Washington lifted the naval blockade.

On the same day, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi noted that the imposition of a blockade of Iranian ports was a violation of the ceasefire.

On April 21, US President Donald Trump extended the ceasefire in the conflict with Iran at the request of Pakistan until the submission of Tehran's proposals and the completion of the negotiation process. The US military in the Middle East region remains on alert, and the naval blockade of Iranian ports will continue, the American leader added.