Between the first and the second: US demands threaten to disrupt the truce with Iran
The talks between the United States and Iran in Islamabad were in danger of collapse. Tehran has questioned participation in the second round of consultations, pointing to Washington's excessive demands and lack of trust. Despite this, the United States continues to demonstrate its formal "readiness for a deal," while increasing pressure. The situation further escalated after the seizure of an Iranian ship by American forces, which Tehran considers a violation of the truce. And his term is about to expire. According to experts interviewed by Izvestia, fundamental differences remain the key obstacles, primarily due to the unwillingness of the United States to take into account Iran's interests in matters of the nuclear program and regional policy.
Will the second round of negotiations take place
The negotiation process between the United States and Iran is rapidly deteriorating: the second round of consultations in Islamabad came into question after the US military attacked and seized an Iranian-flagged merchant ship. In the republic, this was regarded as a direct violation of the ceasefire.
Tehran categorically refuses to accept the conditions put forward by Washington for the resumption of negotiations. The American side insists on demands that actually imply the surrender of the Islamic Republic — from the complete removal of control over the Strait of Hormuz to the abandonment of uranium enrichment. "Iran does not recognize any ultimatums related to the protection of its national interests," said Esmail Bagai, an official representative of the country's Foreign Ministry.
The truce expires on April 22, and the prospects for its extension look extremely uncertain. US President Donald Trump has actually admitted that the interim agreement may not be extended. At the same time, he continues to declare his readiness to conclude a deal and claims that the parties are supposedly ready for a serious dialogue.
US President Donald Trump
According to the American leader, a U.S. delegation led by Vice President Jay D. Vance is scheduled to arrive in Islamabad on the evening of April 20. The group also includes Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Trump stressed that the negotiating agenda is reduced to a single issue — preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.
However, the opposite attitude is being demonstrated in Tehran. The country's foreign Ministry said that no decision has been made to hold a new round of negotiations, and the US intentions are not perceived as evidence of a real willingness to compromise. He also stressed that Iran does not discuss its nuclear program with Washington and does not intend to respond to ultimatums or artificial deadlines.
Iran does not agree with the demands of the United States
The current crisis over the negotiations between the United States and Iran is systemic in nature and cannot be resolved without eliminating fundamental contradictions, international relations expert Hadi Issa Dalul believes. The conflict is based on a combination of factors that Tehran considers to be gross violations of international law, including attacks on nuclear infrastructure and decisions taken bypassing the mechanisms of the UN Security Council, the expert told Izvestia.
He stressed that without a legal assessment of these actions and their possible consideration by international courts, discussing technical aspects such as uranium enrichment or the parameters of new agreements would be meaningless.
As of the evening of April 20, Iran's participation in negotiations with the United States remains questionable and directly depends on the fulfillment of the conditions put forward by Tehran, Tasnim news agency reports. According to him, the key obstacle to the continuation of the dialogue is the naval blockade by the United States.
Serious disagreements remain on several issues, primarily on uranium enrichment and control over the Strait of Hormuz. The American side claims that Tehran is allegedly ready to transfer stocks of highly enriched uranium, but the Iranian authorities categorically deny this. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic emphasizes that the issue of exporting uranium outside the country was not discussed at any stage of the negotiations and is not on the agenda.
Iraqi analyst Safaa al-Assam told Izvestia that Iran is not ready to discuss the US proposals in the current circumstances, as they involve significant concessions on issues of national security and sovereignty. According to him, Washington's demands, including reducing control over the Strait of Hormuz, are perceived in Tehran as excessive and inconsistent with the principle of equal dialogue.
— The recent attack on an Iranian ship in the Gulf of Oman seriously undermines the level of trust between the parties and complicates the prospects for the negotiation process. At the same time, Tehran does not close the door to diplomacy and remains ready for constructive dialogue. However, this will require a lot of flexibility from Washington," the specialist said in an interview with Izvestia.
The parties are interested in de-escalation
In fact, there is a situation in which Iran regularly refutes US statements, which only increases mutual distrust. This trend is also evident in the issue of the Strait of Hormuz: if earlier Trump spoke about the agreement reached on its opening, then the very next day the Iranian side announced the continuation of restrictions.
Despite the growing tension, both sides are objectively interested in de-escalation. Iran remains at risk of further military strikes, while the United States is aware of the threat to the global economy due to the possible prolonged blocking of a key transport route. Hadi Issa Dalul points to a change in the Americans' approach, which, in his opinion, amounts to an attempt to localize the conflict and minimize risks to the interests of the United States in the region. We are talking about the desire to prevent attacks on US military bases, infrastructure in the Persian Gulf and allied states, while distancing ourselves from possible further escalation.
However, in practice, the parties remain far from a compromise. Among the unresolved issues are not only the nuclear program, but also sanctions, freedom of navigation, and Iran's regional policy. Normally, it would take years to agree on such a complex set of topics, as it did when the 2015 nuclear deal was concluded.
All this points to the risk of a new escalation. Washington, judging by the statements, expects a rapid effect of pressure, including economic measures and a blockade. However, experience shows that such a strategy underestimates the resilience of the Iranian side.
In the event of a further escalation, Tehran may resort to asymmetric measures, from attacks on energy infrastructure in the region to the activation of allied groups, which can significantly affect the global energy situation. Even without these steps, the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is already putting increasing pressure on global markets.
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