The expert ruled out the redistribution of the air transportation market due to the war in the Middle East

Panteleev: the industry retains a margin of safety, but rising fuel prices are inevitable

Wed, 04/22/2026 - 01:30

Photo: IZVESTIA/Evgeny Pavlov

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The protracted conflict in the Middle East puts pressure on the global aviation industry, but it does not create conditions for its systemic crisis. This point of view was expressed to Izvestia by Oleg Panteleev, Executive Director of the Aviport agency.

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The most vulnerable, according to him, will be European and a number of Asian airlines that depend on fuel supplies from the Middle East region.

"Rising prices for petroleum products will lead to higher airfare and may reduce demand for transportation. An additional risk remains a possible shortage of jet fuel, which can provoke a reduction in flight volumes," the expert admitted.

At the same time, Panteleev stressed that even in the event of interruptions in fuel supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, which provides a significant share of imports for Europe, complete paralysis of air traffic is not expected. He recalled that European countries are already developing mechanisms for the redistribution of resources, assuming priority provision of long-haul flights and the development of rail links on short routes.

According to the interlocutor of the editorial board, fuel—producing countries, including Russia, are in a more stable position. Domestic jet fuel prices remain relatively stable, and the fuel damper mechanism provides additional protection for airlines. The key cost growth factor for Russian carriers is the price of fuel at foreign airports, which affects the cost of international flights.

The further development of the situation will depend on the dynamics of the conflict. If it is completed soon, the market will be able to recover quickly enough, despite inflationary pressures. However, in a negative scenario with escalation and strikes on the oil infrastructure, it is possible to increase fuel shortages and a new round of rising prices for air transportation, Panteleev concluded.