Wings clipped: airline losses from outbound flights may reach 1 billion
Airline losses on outbound flights from March 2 to March 10 may reach 1 billion rubles. Each flight with an empty cabin in one direction reduces the profitability of the flight by up to -30%, and the increased route raises the cost by a third. The minimum losses for each 180-seat aircraft, according to experts, can reach 1.5–3 million rubles. If the skies over the Persian Gulf remain closed until April, the industry will have to seriously rebuild routes to resorts. Istanbul may become a connecting hub for flights to Egypt and Europe, and Indian airports to the Maldives. How much the cost of flights to tourist destinations can increase is in the Izvestia article.
How much will airline costs increase
The conflict in the Middle East results in heavy losses for domestic and foreign airlines. The airspace of six countries remains closed: Bahrain, Israel, Iraq, Iran, Qatar and Kuwait. Ticket sales are suspended until March 14, and to Israel — until March 20, the Federal Air Transport Agency said. In between rocket attacks, carriers evacuate Russian citizens from the conflict zone. Starting March 12, Aeroflot cancels all flights to the UAE until April, the carrier said.
From March 2 to March 5, 105 outbound flights were operated to Moscow, St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, Novosibirsk, Mineralnye Vody, Makhachkala, Kazan and Krasnodar (97 from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and eight from Oman), the Ministry of Transport reported. 21 thousand passengers were delivered to Russia. On March 6, 34 more flights were completed and 7.7 thousand citizens were delivered from the conflict zone. A similar departure schedule will be in effect over the long weekend.
The losses of air carriers are considerable. Flights are operated in one direction empty, which is why their profitability drops from an average of 3-4% immediately to -30%, a source in one of the airlines told Izvestia. The minimum losses for each 180-seat aircraft, according to experts, can reach 1.5–3 million rubles, and wide—body sides - even more.
In addition, in the first days of March, domestic and foreign airlines canceled 216 flights to the UAE and other countries of the Persian region. Refunds of more than 10 thousand tickets have been issued, the Ministry of Transport said. Their cost can reach 400 million rubles.
Thus, in the first decade of March alone, due to the cessation of ticket sales and on outbound flights, airline losses may reach 1 billion rubles, Izvestia estimated.
These losses will not lead to airline bankruptcies, although this will affect their operations, says Fyodor Borisov, chief expert at the Institute of Transport Economics and Transport Policy at the National Research University Higher School of Economics. According to him, Russian airlines have a high degree of adaptability and, depending on the duration of the crisis, they will develop certain solutions to redistribute the flow.
— Relative to spring and summer, the tourist passenger traffic from Russia is still relatively small. The losses are significant, but not yet fatal. They still hope that the conflict will end soon. But by April, serious decisions will have to be made to radically restructure air traffic if the war drags on," the portal's editor—in-chief told Izvestia. Avia.ru aviation expert Roman Gusarov.
Safe routes are already being built to bypass Iran. Medium-haul Airbus A320 aircraft fly through the airspace of Oman, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Due to the increased route by a third, it is necessary to refuel in Navoi (Uzbekistan). Some planes make an intermediate stop in Aktau, Kazakhstan. Wide-body Boeing 777 airliners operate flights without additional boarding.
According to Red Wings, another route has been laid from Muscat International Airport (Oman) through the airspace of this country, as well as Iraq, Turkey and Russia.
"The detour bypassing Iran increases the flight range by about a third," Vadim Baldin, director of Helix Airlines, told Izvestia. — Instead of the usual six hours, we have to fly for eight already. With an average cost of $15,000 per flight hour, the cost of the route reaches $30,000. An additional landing for refueling costs about $ 7 thousand. Additional expenses for air navigation should be added to them. As a result, flights on safe routes will require about $40 thousand in additional expenses from only one flight of one airline.
How will it be possible to fly to Maldives and Thailand?
The conflict in the Persian Gulf affected not only flights to the Middle East, but also to other regions, including Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean, where Russians flew with transfers in Dubai, Andrey Patrakov, founder of the RunAvia flight safety service, told Izvestia. Therefore, the closure of the skies over Iran and the UAE affects connecting flights from Dubai and Abu Dhabi.
Dubai is a major hub through which flights are operated around the world, Roman Gusarov added.
— For example, they fly through it to Europe and countries where there are no direct flights. The second such transport hub is Istanbul. His role is likely to increase significantly in the near future," the expert said.
As for other destinations, for example, the countries of Southeast Asia - Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines, etc. — according to Roman Gusarov, in case of prolongation of the conflict in the Persian Gulf, the route network will have to be rebuilt. Krasnoyarsk is likely to increase in importance, where Aeroflot is forming a transport hub for flights to China and Asian countries. It is possible that similar hubs may appear in Central Asian countries, the expert added.
The Maldives will remain accessible, but it will be more difficult to fly there, Andrei Patrakov believes. Indian airports, for example, can be used as backup hubs. To do this, you will have to make a detour, which will increase the flight time by two to three hours and the range by 20-30%. The cost of the flight will also increase by the same amount. It is possible that they will be placed on the shoulders of passengers, the expert believes.
However, Aeroflot has already announced that it will launch 13 additional flights to Thailand, Maldives and back in March.
"Flights will be operated between Moscow and Bangkok, Phuket, Male to meet the increased tourist demand and expand the opportunity to get to and from vacation destinations for passengers whose transit flights of foreign airlines were canceled due to the unstable situation in the Middle East," the carrier said. Ticket sales for additional flights are open.
The airline currently operates up to 11 weekly flights from Moscow to Bangkok and Male, and up to 19 flights to Phuket.
According to Andrey Patrakov, the transportation capacity of Russian airlines is also limited. The fleet of wide-body aircraft is not too large. There are dozens of them, and there are no direct flights on medium-haul planes to the Maldives and other places in Southeast Asia. Therefore, a new route network will be required.
When choosing tickets for the 2026 tour season, it is better to avoid connecting flights at the airports of Dubai (DXB, DWC), Sharjah (SHJ), Abu Dhabi (AUH), Doha (DOH), Manama (BAH), Kuwait City (KWI), Tehran (IKA), Israel (TLV), Amman (AMM), Riyadh (RUH), Jeddah (JED), Muscat (MCT), the expert advises.
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