The orientalist assessed the consequences of the breakdown of the US-Iran talks in Islamabad

The failure of the memorandum in Islamabad signaled the withdrawal of the United States and Iran from the logic of phased de-escalation and increased the risks of a new escalation in the region. This was announced to Izvestia on April 13 by political analyst Dmitry Brije.

"This is not just a diplomatic setback, but a sign of a return to tough confrontation. The negotiations between the United States and Iran ended with mutual accusations: Washington declared Tehran's unwillingness to abandon its military nuclear program, and the Iranian side accused the other side of tightening conditions at the last moment," the expert noted.

The expert stressed that the consequences of the breakdown of negotiations have already affected regional security. The United States announced a naval blockade of Iranian ports, and Tehran warned of its readiness to consider the approach of warships as a violation of the truce. Against this background, oil prices have again exceeded $100 per barrel, which indicates an increase in geopolitical risks.

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Brydje noted that the failure of the dialogue increases tensions over Iran's nuclear program. In the absence of agreements, the nuclear issue is once again becoming an instrument of pressure, and the positions of the parties are becoming tougher. The United States is betting on deterrence, while Iran is stepping up its defense capabilities.

At the same time, according to the political scientist, the possibility of continuing negotiations remains, but remains limited. To return to the conversation, it is necessary to observe the truce, refrain from escalation at sea, move to a phased model of agreements and the participation of international mediators. However, the key obstacle remains the conflict of interests of the parties, each of which seeks to consolidate its own terms.

Bridge identified three possible scenarios for the development of the situation. He called a protracted crisis with the preservation of limited communication channels the most likely. The second scenario assumes temporary agreements on certain issues, and the third — a new escalation against the background of possible incidents.

On the same day, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said that Washington had changed the "rules of the game" when "a few centimeters" remained before the adoption of the agreement between the United States and Iran. According to him, the United States has not learned a single lesson.

American leader Donald Trump announced on April 12 that the US Navy was beginning to block all ships that would attempt to enter or exit the Strait of Hormuz. According to him, the negotiations in Islamabad went well, but the key nuclear issue remained unresolved. Trump said Iran had prevented free passage for ships by using threats about mines.

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