Location and demands: The US and Iran are bringing negotiations to a standstill
The first negotiations between Iran and the United States did not lead to any significant success. The stumbling block remains Hormuz, which Iran wants to keep under its control. At the same time, the problem with the strait does not directly affect Russia, as it has its own sales channels, the Federation Council told Izvestia. The Republic also insists on receiving war reparations, unfreezing its assets and a cease-fire throughout the region. However, the IDF continues to attack Lebanon. Over the past 24 hours, Israel has hit more than 200 targets. The number of victims in Lebanon has exceeded 2,000 residents since March 2. What or who is slowing down the negotiation process is in the Izvestia article.
The course of negotiations between Iran and the United States
The negotiations in Islamabad, which the whole world has been waiting for for so long, have finally taken place. This is the first direct meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran in more than 10 years, since the JCPOA, and the first high-level contacts since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
The Iranian delegation was led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi. The Americans are led by Vice President Jay Dee Vance, Special Envoy Steven Witkoff and Donald Trump's son—in-law Jared Kushner.
The current US president trusts only a narrow circle of people who are directly involved in all Middle Eastern issues, Grigory Lukyanov, a researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia. According to him, Trump does not rely on experts in the region. Therefore, he again sent "relatively unprofessional" diplomats to the negotiations.
At the same time, Vance is considered one of the most ardent opponents of the war in Donald Trump's inner circle. As one of the main contenders for the presidency of the Republican Party in 2028, he can benefit politically from the success of the negotiations. But if the dialogue drags on or fails altogether, it risks becoming even more bogged down in the international quagmire, which has already led to the deaths of thousands of civilians, rising gasoline prices and inflation.
According to media reports, the White House considered Ghalibaf as the preferred interlocutor, believing that he was pragmatic and more inclined to conclude a deal. Lukyanov stressed that Ghalibaf is the speaker of the parliament, and a significant part of Iran's political elite is associated with the IRGC. Another Iranian negotiator, Abbas Araqchi, has gained great respect among professional diplomats and the public through both his rhetoric and his work, Lukyanov noted.
The dialogue was organized in several approaches and in a number of formats at once, at a certain point moving to the expert level: the head of the Central Bank of Iran, Abdul Nasser Hemmati, joined the discussions. Specialists, apparently, faced serious difficulties. After almost five hours, there were no significant results. It is reported that the parties exchanged documents on the issues under discussion, and a third round of negotiations is planned.
According to the Middle Eastern media, the American side has agreed to the full unblocking of Iran's frozen assets. However, the parties did not provide official confirmation of this. However, Iran raised the issue of assets long before the negotiations, designating it as a key issue, without which there can be no further dialogue.
According to the IRGC, Washington has authorized the unfreezing of Iran's assets worth $6 billion. Representatives of Qatar and South Korea have started work on the transfer of funds: it will take several days. At the same time, CBS said that the United States did not give permission to unfreeze all assets. Only a part has been unblocked, and the total amount exceeds $100 billion.
According to the Financial Times, the negotiators have reached an impasse over the Strait of Hormuz. The publication claims that Iran insists on its control over the strait and has the right to charge for passage, rejecting the idea of joint regulation. However, the Central Command of the US Armed Forces stated that two American ships had already entered the water area and began clearing it. Later, the Central Headquarters of the Iranian Armed Forces Command denied a report that American ships had crossed the Strait of Hormuz.
However, the problem with Hormuz does not affect Russia, Vladimir Jabarov, First deputy chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, told Izvestia.
— We have almost no ships there. I don't remember that we exported anything through the Strait of Hormuz. We don't take oil from there. Especially gas," the senator added. — Therefore, I do not think that Russia had any problems with the passage of the Strait of Hormuz. We have our own sales channels, our own routes.
Requirements of the parties
Even before the start of the negotiations, the Iranian side outlined to Pakistan a list of requirements, without which there can be no final agreement by the Americans. Namely: control over the Strait of Hormuz, receipt of war reparations, unfreezing of Iranian assets, as well as a cease-fire in the entire region.
Donald Trump, for his part, said that the main requirement of the United States is the absence of nuclear weapons in Iran. According to him, this is 99% of everything the White House wants.
"The main stumbling block in the US—Iranian negotiations is the issue of keeping enriched uranium under Iran's control, as well as the issue of lifting Western sanctions against Iran," Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies, told Izvestia. — At the same time, the American side sees such demands as excessive, since agreeing to them is tantamount to admitting one's own defeat.
According to him, both sides are negotiating from a position of strength: Iran continues to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed to ships of unfriendly countries, and the United States continues to increase military shipments towards the Middle East. This approach does not give flexibility to the negotiation process and confidence that it can succeed, the expert stressed.
Iran and the United States may want to find common ground, but so far they have not seen them, Vladimir Jabarov believes. According to him, a lot depends on the positions of Vance and Ghalibaf in the negotiations.
The situation is seriously complicated by a third party to the conflict. One of the cornerstone demands of Iran, which she put forward even before the start of negotiations, is the cessation of Israeli strikes on Lebanon.
According to media reports, Donald Trump asked Benjamin Netanyahu not to attack Hezbollah based there. According to Al Hadath, the United States gave Lebanon security guarantees for the duration of the dialogue with Iran, otherwise it threatened to disrupt the meeting. But Netanyahu, apparently, decided not to comply with the request. The IDF reported on how more than 200 targets in Lebanon have been attacked over the past 24 hours. The Ministry of Health of the republic stated: since March 2, more than 2 thousand people have died in the country, almost 6.5 thousand have been injured.
In fact, Israel is disrupting the negotiation process. But the United States cannot impose sanctions on him due to the lack of sufficient political will, Grigory Lukyanov said. According to him, there is a serious Jewish lobby in the United States. On the other hand, Trump's considerable personal authority remains, and he will be able, if necessary, to force Israel into the right line of behavior. The US president may appeal to groups of military and political leaders of the Jewish state to put pressure on Netanyahu without publicly discrediting him, the orientalist emphasized.
Nevertheless, Donald Trump retains his bellicose rhetoric. According to him, Tehran has no trump cards in its hands, except for control over international waterways. And the only reason Iran hasn't been destroyed is because of the negotiations. If they fail, Trump will resume the war. The US president started another speech about Iran being doomed on social networks right during the negotiations.
"The United States has completely destroyed the Iranian Armed Forces, including their entire fleet, air force, and everything else. Their leadership is dead! — said Trump in Truth Social. "The Strait of Hormuz will be open soon, and empty ships are rushing to the United States to load up."
It is worth emphasizing that Donald Trump makes such conclusions based on information from his military, Lukyanov noted. The IRGC has indeed suffered significant damage. The republic's Air Force was a weak link in the country's defense, as it had not been systematically updated since the 1980s, and their destruction was a matter of time. The same applies to the fleet: it had a symbolic meaning, and its death also does not affect Iran's overall defense capability.
— The Republic relied on drones and missile technologies. Both are preserved in sufficient quantity. This allows the country to strike at naval targets. So Trump's statements have realistic grounds, but his conclusions are incorrect," concluded a researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
Tigran Meloyan believes that the statements of the American president are aimed at an internal audience. Such statements have been made since March, but they have not led to a strengthening of Washington's negotiating positions, the expert noted.
Thus, Trump continues his harsh rhetoric against the background of the unfinished military campaign. He failed to achieve his goals: to deprive Iran of the opportunity to strike at its neighbors, dismantle its nuclear program, and weaken the regime to internal collapse.
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