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- Sovereignty parade: The EU wanted independence from the United States in the military sphere
Sovereignty parade: The EU wanted independence from the United States in the military sphere
Speaking to politicians in Brussels, Arthur Mensch, head of the major global IT firm Mistral, said that AI technologies are no less important for the security of the state than nuclear weapons. He suggested that the European IT business introduce neural networks into the defense sector of the EU countries. Officials from the European Commission are currently developing a package of measures for the so-called technological sovereignty, so that Europe stops depending so much on American developments in the field of AI. Izvestia found out whether the EU will succeed in achieving independence from the United States in the field of military technology with the help of AI and what this may eventually lead to.
AI in the service of States
This week, Mensch spoke about how the European Union, in his opinion, can gain sovereignty in the defense sector. To do this, he believes, it is necessary to create "our own, European, AI, at least for the defense sector." Without this, the region risks problems with surveillance, economic decline, strategic frailty, and even the erosion of democratic freedoms. As the entrepreneur himself put it: "There is no artificial intelligence in the systems — there is, in fact, no army."
Mensch's plan looks like this: The European Union needs to assemble its own database of scientists who will work on creating AI, and generally unlock the potential of the common market, as well as introduce neural networks into the economy and build infrastructure for data processing.
The businessman believes that the current European computing centers for advanced technologies are already weak. If Brussels does manage to introduce neural networks into the defense industry, the European Union will reduce the gap with the United States and strengthen its security— both economically and militarily.
The Mistral company headed by Mensch, which created the French equivalent of ChatGPT, Le Chat, has long been known in the European IT field. She intends to become the leader of the local market. In March, the company signed three-year contracts with the French Ministry of Defense and the French Army: it is assumed that its technologies will be used to decrypt records, translate and help analyze documents. In addition, Mistral is going to open an "advanced data center" near Paris.
Consolidation is unlikely
The European Union is currently living under the Digital Decade program, adopted back in 2022. It is planned that its goals will be achieved by 2030. The European Commission reports every year on how things are progressing.
At the end of May, the EC plans to present a large package of measures on technological sovereignty. It is expected that it will be aimed at reducing dependence on foreign suppliers in critical areas such as cloud services and semiconductors. Part of this package may also be devoted to the development of data centers in Europe.
In order to protect the EU from foreign AI companies and spur the development of its own innovations, Mensch proposed introducing a tax for foreign suppliers who place or commission their models on the European market. The amount of tax may depend on the revenue of these companies. However, it is not yet clear whether this will be accepted at the EU level.
At the same time, it will not be easy to abandon American software. Finland, Sweden and Ireland are the most dependent on it. The French authorities are concerned about the situation, which at the end of January banned their officials from using American video communication services and transferred everyone to the domestic Visio platform.
In Europe itself, this initiative is viewed with suspicion. The German Ministry of Finance stressed that it is impossible to completely replace foreign services, and it is not necessary, since the development and implementation of their analogues may take 10 years, but will not pay off.
Vilnius stated that technologically "disconnecting" from the United States is unrealistic and does not meet the broad strategic interests of Europe. We need the unanimity of all national states and their willingness to give control of advanced technologies to supranational bodies. But given the euroscepticism in some countries, such consolidation looks unlikely.
Independence is impossible
At the same time, the EU recognizes the need for strategic autonomy from the United States. Threats to renegotiate transatlantic commitments are increasingly being heard from Washington.
According to experts, the path to independence from the United States in the military-technological sphere will take at least a decade and will require more than $1 trillion. In addition, according to The Financial Times, senior European generals bluntly call the idea of abruptly abandoning American technology unrealistic and dangerous.
They agree that in recent decades, Europe has become heavily digitally dependent on the United States. American corporations such as Palantir, Google and Lockheed Martin actually hold the "brains" of the European armies in their hands. So most EU platforms depend on American servers.
The European armed forces rely on US technology for communications, intelligence, data storage, as well as on satellites and United States command systems, so abandoning them is "unrealistic and useless" and could undermine security in the region.
In turn, former British Air Marshal Andrew Turner said that "a combat aircraft in Europe that is digitally independent of America is almost unthinkable," since everyone, whether Typhoons or Rafales, uses American communication or identification systems.
It's the same story with the navy: NATO ships are tied to the Aegis system, and satellite reconnaissance without images from the United States is losing its effectiveness.
Aware of its vulnerability, Europe is looking for asymmetric responses. According to the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, Brussels is secretly working on the issue of creating its own nuclear weapons capability. Officially, to contain Russia, but in reality, to break dependence on American nuclear forces stationed in Europe.
The SVR claims that countries such as Germany, Italy and Sweden have the expertise and technology to create nuclear weapons components. Experts believe that Germany is technically capable of obtaining weapons-grade plutonium in the laboratory within a month. If the EU acquires its own nuclear cudgel, it will not only change the balance of power in NATO, but will destroy the entire current architecture of global security.
At the same time, Europe faces the main obstacle — its own fragmentation. "The problem is not so much a shortage of resources, but rather national and industrial fragmentation," writes Politico.
The current situation poses serious risks for Moscow. An increase in the EU's military power is inevitable. Europe's combined defense budget already stands at about $560 billion per year. In 10 years, they aim to reach 80% of the Pentagon's level. This means that an enemy capable of conducting high-intensity military operations without regard for Washington may appear at the borders of the Russian Federation.
If the EU starts building its own air defense systems, this will inevitably require Russia to respond.
What do the experts think
In order to achieve independence from the United States in the field of military technology, the European Union needs to conquer Russia, says a researcher at the IMEMO Center for the Study of Strategic Planning. Primakov RAS Ilya Kramnik.
"Or find another unused source of cheap resources on the planet, and such a scenario is unlikely," he explained in an interview with Izvestia.
In turn, Alexander Ermakov, a junior researcher at the IMEMO Center for International Security of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes that in order for the EU to gain independence from the United States, it is necessary to rely on the development of various spheres.
— Their military-industrial complex has been built for 70 years in close relationship, and, of course, the European ones are dependent. This is all general talk about the independence of the EU from the United States, because in parallel, Europeans continue to purchase American weapons and even more components," the expert draws attention.
The EU's measures are aimed at "reducing the risk" in relations with the United States, and not at "decoupling" with them, implying a complete rupture of economic and strategic ties, said Elena Panina, director of the Institute of International Political and Economic Strategies.
"In general, such a limited autonomy of Europe does not threaten the United States. Moreover, it is in line with the current administration's plans to shift the war with Russia through Ukraine and responsibility for the European continent onto the European members of NATO. This is directly evidenced by the new US national security strategy," the political scientist believes.
At the same time, Europe's strong attachment to the American nuclear umbrella will remain in any case — France and the United Kingdom will not be able to replace it, and "no one will allow Germany to create nuclear weapons," she concludes.
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