Betting on the port: what will the rapprochement of Belarus with the United States lead to?

Donald Trump's special Envoy John Cole visited Minsk. Following a meeting with President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, he announced that Washington was lifting sanctions on the Belarusian financial system and producers and exporters of potash fertilizers. In general, there has been a significant warming in relations between the two countries in recent months. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

Cans of potassium

U.S. Special Envoy John Cole visited Minsk on March 19, where he met with Alexander Lukashenko. Following the talks, the head of the American delegation announced the lifting of another batch of sanctions. The Americans are removing restrictions from the Belarusian financial system — from Belinvestbank, the Development Bank and the Ministry of Finance. Thanks to this, Minsk will be able to store and transfer funds in dollars, and foreign trade operations will be simplified.

In addition, two major companies related to the extraction and sale of potash fertilizers, which are Minsk's main export product, are being removed from the black lists. At the same time, Cole stressed that formal decisions by American agencies to lift restrictions would follow almost immediately after his statements. "We learned how to do it quickly," he said.

Photo: IZVESTIA/Yulia Mayorova

The American envoy also said that the possibility of Lukashenko's visit to one of the upcoming summits of the Peace Council and personal contact between the two presidents are being considered, and preparations are underway for the Belarusian leader's trip to the United States. According to Cole, Trump constantly talks about his colleague and "speaks of him as a very good friend and respected world leader."

In response, Lukashenko pardoned 250 prisoners convicted under articles of "extremist orientation" on the same day. It is emphasized that each case was considered by a special commission under the leadership of the Prosecutor General of Belarus, taking into account appeals from mothers, wives and relatives of convicts. At the same time, Lukashenko himself stated that he does not consider those released to be political prisoners. According to him, there are no political articles in the country, so all those released are offenders.

In a triangle with Europe

I must say that the current round of negotiations was not fundamentally different from other similar meetings. The scenario in previous months was about the same: the United States lifted some of the sanctions, and the Belarusian authorities released a group of prisoners.

Like old friends: what Lukashenko will talk about with Trump's envoy

A possible topic for discussion will be the purchase of Belarusian petroleum products.

This time, however, the scale turned out to be more significant than before. For example, during Cole's first visit to Minsk in June last year, 14 people were released, 52 in September, 123 in December. Now we are talking about the largest party in recent years.

It is also interesting that those previously convicted under extremist articles were immediately sent from the country to Lithuania or Ukraine after being pardoned. Now the scenario has changed somewhat. According to the U.S. Embassy in Vilnius, 235 people remained in Belarus, while only 15 were transferred to the Baltic Republic.

Photo: RIA Novosti/Nina Padalko

At the same time, Minsk and Washington seem to have far-reaching plans. During the current talks, Alexander Lukashenko hinted that the restoration of flights between Belarus and the United States is also on the agenda. According to him, it's time for Cole to come visit directly, and not through friends, that is, through Lithuania. In addition, the restoration of the embassies is being discussed.

"We really discussed this issue at a meeting with President Lukashenko. Before our trip here, we held extensive consultations with the US State Department and other involved structures. Work in this direction is underway," Cole said.

The American envoy also said that he expects progress in the release of prisoners. According to him, Washington would like to achieve a pardon for all those convicted under extremist articles by the end of this year. In total, according to Cole, there are more than 1,000 such people, and to date, more than 500 people have been rescued during all rounds of negotiations.

Photo: RIA Novosti/Vitaly Timkiv

It is worth noting that the lifting of not only American but also European sanctions is important for Belarus. For example, the same potash fertilizers are now supplied to the world market through Russian ports, although the shortest route is through the Lithuanian Klaipeda. The lifting of American restrictions in this sense does not change anything, but it seems that Washington would like to resolve this issue as well.

It is known that during his visit to Vilnius on March 18, Cole talked not only with the official Lithuanian authorities, but also with opposition politicians who advocate pragmatic relations with Belarus. According to Lithuanian radio LRT, Trump's special envoy met with Seimas deputies Ignas Vegele and Rimas Jankunas, as well as European Parliamentarian Piatras Grazhulis.

Photo: RIA Novosti/Victor Tolochko

However, these are insignificant figures. The official authorities of Lithuania, starting from the head of the republic and ending with the Prime Minister and the Head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, continue to adhere to a hard line. Nevertheless, Cole expects to succeed in this direction as well.

"We are carrying out a humanitarian mission. We want relations between Belarus and Lithuania to improve," he said during his tour.

Potassium released: what does the partial lifting of US sanctions mean for Belarus?

Lithuania is considering resuming transit through its territory

Interestingly, Alexander Lukashenko, apparently, is not against a new detente. After Cole's departure, he said that in the coming days Minsk could start returning trucks that had been stuck in Belarus since last year to the Lithuanian side. At the same time, the price for storing heavy trucks and using special parking lots for trucking companies can be reduced.

Diplomatic success

Due to its foreign policy mistakes, the United States is extremely interested in improving relations with Russia and Belarus, emphasizes MGIMO Professor Kirill Koktysh, Doctor of Political Sciences. Because of the "adventure in the Middle East," they needed Russian oil, and some of the restrictions were lifted. The same situation applies to Belarus.

— The Trump administration quarreled with Canada, which was the main supplier of potash fertilizers, and now they are looking for a replacement, and in this regard they are establishing ties with Minsk. At the same time, they need to solve the issue urgently, the same potassium is needed for sowing. All this can only be welcomed, in such somewhat complicated conditions, the normalization of international relations is taking place," the expert explains.

Photo: TASS/Sergey Malgavko

In turn, Nikolai Mezhevich, head of the Center for Belarusian Studies at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, calls the incident a major diplomatic success for Minsk. Belarus, as he recalls, has been in international isolation for a longer time than Russia. And for Minsk, any correction of this state of affairs is a serious step forward.

— At the same time, I note that the Europeans do not synchronize with the Americans in this matter. The same Lithuanians categorically refuse to unblock the Klaipeda port. Why? Because they have been betting on confrontation for many years, changing something in this sense would be tantamount to admitting defeat, admitting the fallacy of the country's entire foreign policy course," the Izvestia interlocutor explains, suggesting that Belarusian potash fertilizers will continue to be exported through Russian Murmansk.