Potassium released: what does the partial lifting of US sanctions mean for Belarus?
The United States has announced the lifting of sanctions on Belarusian potash fertilizers, which have been and remain Minsk's main export. Until 2020, potash was exported for sale through the Lithuanian port of Klaipeda, but now they say in Vilnius that no one has lifted European sanctions, and therefore they will not accept Belarusian products. Izvestia investigated the situation.
The route is set
U.S. Special Envoy John Cole visited Minsk on December 12-13. He met with Alexander Lukashenko for two days in a row. Following the talks, the American side announced the lifting of sanctions on Belarusian potash fertilizers. In response, the Belarusian leader pardoned 123 prisoners, including Maria Kolesnikova, Viktor Babariko and Ales Bialiatski.
The United States imposed sanctions against Belarus in 2021. Among the main reasons were the presidential elections, after which large-scale opposition protests began. An additional reason was the incident that occurred in May of the same year. At that time, a plane flying from Athens to Vilnius was forcibly landed at Minsk airport, and blogger Roman Protasevich was removed from his flight.
Those sanctions led to a serious restructuring of both the Belarusian foreign trade and the global fertilizer market. Before the restrictions were imposed, the republic sold 10-12 million tons of mineral additives per year worth about $2.4 billion (one fifth of the country's total exports). The products were shipped to more than 100 countries, and Minsk was one of the top three suppliers in the United States. The main transit route passed through the Lithuanian port of Klaipeda.
After the sanctions were imposed, Belarus was cut off from the American and European markets, and new options had to be found. The republic has increased shipments to China by rail across Russia. In addition, Russian ports have been actively used for exports to other countries. According to the Belarusian Ministry of Transport, Moscow provided the ally with a discount on logistics operations.
As a result, after some decline, a new growth began. In the first six months of 2025, 6 million tons of Belarusian potash fertilizers were transported through the Russian territory, which is 6% more than in the same period a year ago. Experts pointed out in this regard that the republic has regained its share in the global market, although it is still awaiting the lifting of sanctions in order to diversify supplies and reduce costs.
In a transit impasse
Lithuania, which was the main destination for fertilizers before the sanctions were imposed, also had a lot of problems. During the period 2020-2024, cargo turnover in the port of Klaipeda fell by about a third. Attempts to replace Belarusian and Russian goods by transshipment of Ukrainian grain or cargo from Central Asia were unsuccessful due to complex and expensive logistics and competition from other European harbors, primarily Polish ones.
For comparison, in 2020, the cargo turnover of the port of Klaipeda amounted to 48 million tons, in 2024 — 35.5 million tons. At the same time, the share of transit traffic decreased from 40% to 5% of the total volume. "If nothing changes in the political arena in the near future, then 38-39 million tons is the limit for us. Today, we have turned from a transit point into a terminal station," said Vitalijus Mushtukas, head of the Klasco freight company.
At the same time, relations between Belarus and Lithuania remain extremely tense. In October, Vilnius completely closed the border with the neighboring republic, citing alleged cases of cigarette smuggling using balloons and weather balloons. At the time, Prime Minister Inga Ruginene called what was happening a "hybrid attack" and threatened Minsk with new European sanctions.
In response, the Belarusian authorities imposed restrictions on the movement of Lithuanian trucks that were in the country at the time. About a thousand trucks ended up in special parking lots, Lithuanian carriers sounded the alarm, noting that losses for a week of such downtime amount to € 5 million. As a result, the authorities of the Baltic Republic opened the border, although this did not add to mutual understanding.
On December 9, Alexander Lukashenko said that the parties should establish a full-fledged dialogue, which Lithuania has been refusing for five years. "Give us back the 17 or 20 cars that you stole. Fire trucks that were supplied to Zimbabwe. Normalize the work of our sanatorium, where we treated Chernobyl children. They actually took away the sanatorium from the children. And return the money for the fact that we built a port there," he said.
Now, after the US decision to lift sanctions, Lithuania finds itself in an even more difficult situation. On the one hand, on December 10, a protest rally was held in Vilnius by its own carriers, who demanded that the government resolve the conflict. On the other hand, the country fears pressure from the United States to ease restrictions on the export of Belarusian fertilizers.
In such circumstances, the Foreign Minister of the Baltic Republic, Kestutis Budris, said that Vilnius was ready for dialogue with its neighbors at the level of ambassadors-at-large on the situation on the border. This is the first such statement in the last five years. So far, Lithuania has agreed only to technical consultations at the departmental level. At the same time, Presidential adviser Deivydas Matulenis said that in the future the republic would have to discuss the issue of lifting sanctions, although the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry officially stated that all restrictions remain in place.
What the experts say
Vsevolod Shimov, adviser to the president of the Russian Association of Baltic Studies, emphasizes that the European Union and the United States currently have fundamental differences on a variety of issues, including in relation to Belarus. According to him, this is the main difference between the current situation and the previous "thaws" between Minsk and the West.
— The European Union intends to continue the policy of sanctions pressure. Lithuania does express its willingness to negotiate, but we are talking about contraband balloons and the fate of Baltic trucks detained in Belarus. Formally, these issues have nothing to do with the transit of potassium through Klaipeda. Belarus cannot transport potash to the United States through Russian ports, because Russian ports themselves are under American sanctions. So the US decision to lift sanctions so far looks more symbolic," he explains.
Belarusian political analyst Alexei Dzermant also reminds that Lithuania and the European Union have their own sanctions that are not tied to American restrictions.
— After the US decision, there were also voices inside Lithuania in favor of lifting sanctions. Of course, this would be beneficial for Minsk, as the shortest route through Klaipeda is for us, but there are many political obstacles. Vilnius has always had an extremely unfriendly policy towards our country, so it is very, very early to make any predictions about normalization," he stressed.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
