The expert named the reasons for the rise in oil to $ 112 per barrel.

The decline in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has led to a sharp rise in oil prices and a reduction in global supply. Denis Astafyev, an entrepreneur, fund manager and founder of the SharesPro fintech platform, told Izvestia on March 19.

"The Strait of Hormuz absorbs about 20% of the world's seaborne oil. When no more than five vessels per day began to pass through it instead of the norm of 138, the market reacted instantly," the expert noted.

According to him, against this background, global oil production in March may decrease by about 8 million barrels per day. As a result, Brent quotes exceeded $112 per barrel, which was a reaction to the shortage of supply. Since the end of February, oil prices have risen by almost 58%.

Astafyev stressed that for Russia, the current situation has become a temporary support for the budget after a weak start to the year. In January, oil and gas revenues of the federal budget decreased to 393 billion rubles, the lowest level since 2020. At the same time, the budget for 2026 was calculated based on the price of $59 per barrel of Urals and the exchange rate of 92.2 rubles per dollar, but the actual figures at the beginning of the year did not correspond to these parameters.

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The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is already affecting the price of gasoline and increasing demand for Russian oil.

"Now, for the first time since the beginning of the year, the price of Russian oil has exceeded the budget target, and analysts estimate a potential increase in revenue of 1-1.5 trillion rubles, while maintaining current quotations until the end of March. At the same time, the growth in oil revenues is partially offset by the relatively strong ruble, and the budget is designed for a much weaker exchange rate.",

The expert added that for importing countries, rising oil prices mean increased inflationary pressures. Since oil is traded in dollars, the weakening of national currencies increases the cost of imports beyond the growth of the quotations themselves. The International Energy Agency has already lowered its forecast for global oil consumption growth in 2026 by 210,000 barrels per day.

At the same time, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), after the normalization of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, the price of Brent may fall below $ 80 in the third quarter of 2026. Astafyev believes that the current price increase is largely due to the "fear premium" rather than a long-term change in the balance of supply and demand.

The price of Brent crude oil for delivery in May 2026 on the London ICE exchange was $112 per barrel, according to trading data. The growth was 8.21%.

Kirill Dmitriev, Special Representative of Russian President Vladimir Putin for investment and economic cooperation with foreign countries, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), said if the United States starts withdrawing troops from the Strait of Hormuz, the price of oil will rise to $200 per barrel.

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