Costly refueling: fuel crisis may push the United States to end the war
Iran's blocking of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a spike in fuel prices in the United States, Europe and Asia. Up to 30% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supplies went through this transport artery. The fuel crisis could undermine Donald Trump's rating ahead of congressional elections and push him to end the war with Iran, experts say. Another factor that may influence the White House's decision is the discontent of the Persian Gulf countries. The situation has also led to increased demand for Russian energy resources in Asia. About how the consequences of the war in the Middle East are being overcome in the world, see the Izvestia article.
Rising gasoline prices will hit Trump's rating
After the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, energy prices skyrocketed. Almost immediately after the outbreak of hostilities, Tehran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, through which up to 30% of the world's supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and oil went. As a result, the price of Brent crude futures for May delivery on the ICE exchange exceeded $86 per barrel for the first time since July 2024. Its current price reaches $ 90, despite the fact that immediately before the conflict it was trading at $ 72-73. The Financial Times previously wrote that in the future prices could rise to $ 100 per barrel.
Washington buys oil from Kuwait and Iraq from the Middle East. The average price per gallon (3.79 liters) of gasoline in the country jumped by 11 cents to $3.11. In some regions, fuel prices have risen by 26 cents in a week. Some American media outlets cite motorists who already regret voting for Donald Trump in the election.
— In America, the higher the prices at gas stations, the lower the ratings of the current president. For example, in 2022, when gasoline cost about $5 per gallon, Joe Biden's ratings dropped below 30%. Therefore, a long fuel crisis can hit Trump very hard," American scholar Malek Dudakov told Izvestia.
According to a CNN/SSRS poll, in February, Trump's approval rating was 36% and disapproval was 63%. Experts do not rule out that as a result of the midterm congressional elections in November 2026, Republicans may lose their majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives.
To stabilize the situation, the United States may release crude oil from the emergency oil reserve, said the country's Minister of Homeland Security, Doug Bergam.
At the same time, the United States is under pressure from the UAE and Qatar, which are suffering heavy losses due to the fact that they cannot send their energy resources. According to Bloomberg, they are calling on Washington to end the war. Along with rising gasoline prices, this factor may motivate Trump to curtail the operation against Iran in the coming weeks, Dudakov concluded.
The dissatisfaction of the electorate with rising gasoline prices is a very sensitive topic in the context of the upcoming congressional elections, said Lev Sokolshchik, a researcher at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics. At the same time, he acknowledged that there are other factors that, on the contrary, may deter the president from curtailing the operation: the Israeli lobby and the ambitions of Trump himself, who seeks to change the ruling regime in Iran.
The fuel crisis in Europe
The blocking of the Strait of Hormuz will hit hardest those regions that do not produce oil themselves and buy it mainly from the Middle East. First of all, these are European countries that are abandoning Russian energy resources. According to estimates by Rystad Energy, gasoline prices in Europe have increased by an average of 27% since February 27. At the same time, in the UK, they increased by 93% in seven days and reached £1.51 (about $1.84) per liter, Sky News reported.
In Germany, some fuels cost more than €2 per liter, despite the fact that prices fluctuated around €1.74–1.78 before the crisis. The country's Economy Minister, Katharina Reiche, announced the launch of an antitrust investigation due to the sharp rise in gasoline prices. She promised to check whether the situation on the market is being used for selfish purposes.
In Poland, Ai-95 gasoline can now be bought on average for 6.6 zlotys (about $ 1.77), that is, $ 0.1 more expensive than before the start of the US and Israeli attacks on Iran, the portal claims. Dziennik.pl . The cost of diesel fuel per day has risen to 7 zlotys (about $1.9) per 1 liter. Polish refineries owned by the Orlen concern operate mainly on raw materials supplied from Saudi Arabia: Warsaw receives 60% of oil imports under a contract with Saudi Aramco.
The price increase also affected the Baltic States. According to the Lithuanian Energy Agency (LEA), average gasoline and diesel fuel prices increased by 0.9% and 1.6%, respectively, during the week. According to experts, European prices are very sensitive to events taking place in the world, so the price increase will continue until the war in the Middle East ends.
Demand for Russian oil is growing in Asia
However, Asian countries were the main consumers of energy resources through the Strait of Hormuz. Before the war, they received about 20 million barrels of oil per day, which is about 85% of the total flow through the strait, Alexander Korolev, deputy director of the Central Research Institute of Higher School of Economics, explained to Izvestia.
— Japan, South Korea, India and China will suffer the most, — the expert notes.
Gasoline prices have already started to rise in all Asian countries. Nevertheless, the situation cannot be called critical, since every state has strategic oil reserves in such a case. According to Energy monitor, in Japan they will last for 254 days, in South Korea — for 208 days, in China — for 200 days, in India — for 74 days. For a shorter period of time — in Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam.
In Vietnam, the authorities are managing to control the situation despite rising prices, Maria Shcherbenko, a junior researcher at the Center for Vietnam and ASEAN Studies at the Institute of China and Modern Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia. Even before the conflict broke out, PV GAS managed to sign contracts for the supply of two large shipments of LNG from Qatar, and taking into account domestic reserves, this should be enough to meet the country's energy needs until the end of April.
The authorities have set up a working group to quickly respond to the events and search for LNG and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) exporters who can replace Middle Eastern suppliers, since about 70% of all external supplies come from this region.
— Now the Vietnamese authorities plan to temporarily increase domestic production, prioritize redirecting oil produced in Vietnam to refineries, and limit energy exports, — the expert specified.
The Philippines, where the Middle East accounts for up to 95% of oil imports, and Thailand are in a much more vulnerable position. That is why queues of those who want to buy fuel in reserve have appeared at the gas stations of the Thai resort of Phuket.
At the same time, Indonesia and Malaysia's imports are more diversified, and their own production is more serious, which partly mitigates the impact of the crisis, Maria Shcherbenko summed up.
In the current situation, demand for Russian oil has increased markedly in Asian countries, which, as a rule, is sold at a discount. Competition for energy resources from the Russian Federation between countries can theoretically reduce the discount, Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund and an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia.
But despite the information appearing on the market about the increase in the value of Urals, it should be understood that often public information about quotations does not correspond to the actual conditions of sales and budget revenues, said Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Reliable Partner Association. According to him, as part of the circumvention of sanctions restrictions, Russian exporters are using discounts unknown to the market, so in fact some oil shipments may still be sold below the level of $ 60, depending on the supply basis.
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