War in the Shadows: how the conflict in Afghanistan will affect Russia's allies
The major conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan has been overshadowed by the Iranian war. The acute phase of the confrontation between Kabul and Islamabad lasts almost a month, with hundreds of casualties on both sides. This is very worrying for the countries of Central Asia, the main danger for them is the activation of Islamists who have settled in the north of Afghanistan. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
What happened
The main reason for the current conflict is the border dispute. Kabul does not recognize the so-called Durand Line, which divides Afghanistan and Pakistan. It was drawn by the British during their rule in British India, it does not take into account the ethnic characteristics of the region, including dividing the multimillion-strong Pashtun people into two countries.
This issue has not been raised for a long time. A civil war raged in Afghanistan for several decades, and Pakistan was focused on its confrontation with India. In recent years, however, the topic has come to the fore again. Islamabad's expulsion of numerous Afghan refugees and Kabul's criticism of the Pakistani authorities, whom the Taliban consider too secular, also added fuel to the fire.
Major conflicts have already broken out between the two countries in recent years. In 2024, Pakistan repeatedly shelled Afghan territory. In October 2025, the fighting lasted ten days. Then Islamabad conducted massive bombardments of Afghan border towns, and Kabul responded by attacking the posts of Pakistani border guards. The data on the victims varied from the sides, but it was definitely about dozens of dead.
Then came the period of a short truce, which was marked by several major terrorist attacks in Pakistan. In early February of this year, a terrorist exploded at the entrance to a mosque in Islamabad, killing 32 people. In the middle of the month, a suicide bomber entered a border checkpoint in Bajaur district, and an explosion occurred near a police station in Bannu city. In Islamabad, all these incidents were linked to the activities of the Pakistani Taliban (the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan group is recognized as a terrorist group and banned in Russia).
As a result, fierce fighting broke out between the two countries at the end of February. According to numerous reports, clashes are taking place along the entire line of contact. We are talking about full-fledged battles, in which hundreds of servicemen have already died. At the same time, neither side intrudes deeply into the enemy's territory, the penetration is a maximum of 10-15 km.
Pakistan also uses its advantage in aviation and launches massive strikes against the largest Afghan cities. On the night of March 15, the residence of Taliban leader Emir Khaibatullah Akhundzada was bombed in Kandahar. It was reported that he himself died, although there was no official confirmation of this information. In addition, on the night of March 17, the Pakistani Air Force struck targets in Kabul, the number of victims was more than 400 people.
The Afghans are trying to compensate for the lack of aviation by using drones, and Taliban drones have even reached Islamabad. Kabul has another serious trump card up its sleeve — the Pakistani Taliban, which has enough forces to stage major sabotage. There is a lot of talk, for example, about a possible attack on the Pakistani border city of Peshawar.
What will be the consequences
There is no talk of any truce yet, Pakistan, apparently, intends to solve all the accumulated problems. In Islamabad, during the current conflict, the Afghan authorities were called militants, warlords and illegitimate bandits. Pakistan's Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif declared an open war because Kabul "has gathered terrorists from all over the world."
Pakistan's Foreign Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif
I must say that Pakistan has experience of a change of power in Afghanistan. In the 1980s, Islamabad supported the Mujahideen, who eventually occupied Kabul after the withdrawal of Soviet troops. In addition, the Pakistanis helped the Taliban when they fought the Americans, and as a result, in 2021, they also completely occupied the territory of Afghanistan. It cannot be ruled out that the same scenario is being prepared now.
In these circumstances, what is happening is being closely monitored in Central Asia. The countries of the region have recently noticeably changed their attitude towards the Taliban. After 2021, the Central Asian capitals preferred not to notice the changes that had taken place, did not recognize the new Afghan authorities, and practically had no contact with them. Recently, however, the prevailing view has been that the Taliban have come to power in Kabul for a long time, so we need to somehow negotiate with them and establish relations.
Uzbekistan was the headliner in this process. Tashkent and Kabul exchanged ambassadors, increased bilateral trade, began to exchange representative delegations, and began talking about the construction of the Trans-Afghan Railway.
Turkmenistan has started construction of the TAPI pipeline (Turkmenistan – Afghanistan – Pakistan – India), which will allow Ashgabat to transport gas to South Asia. Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan have removed the Taliban from their lists of banned organizations. Even the most intransigent Tajikistan has begun to contact Afghanistan on border security issues.
If the war between Afghanistan and Pakistan drags on, and the situation in the territory controlled by the Taliban becomes destabilized, then the whole current concept will go to waste. Obviously, major infrastructure projects like the Trans-Afghan Railway and TAPI will be put on hold, and bilateral contacts will be minimized. There will be no talk of any investments in Afghanistan.
In addition, the prospect of a humanitarian catastrophe is quite real. Afghanistan has no access to the sea, the country's border with Pakistan has been closed since the end of last year, and border crossings on the border with Iran have also been operating intermittently since the beginning of the war in the Middle East. Food prices have already increased significantly in Kabul, and while trends continue, the country is facing famine, which will lead to new waves of migration and rampant banditry.
Finally, destabilization in Afghanistan may threaten the security of Central Asia. Recently, even without a new war, the situation on the border has become extremely alarming. Since last fall, clashes on the line of contact between Tajikistan and Afghanistan have been taking place almost monthly. Traditionally, they are accompanied by shootouts in which the attackers suffer losses, but there are also deaths among the border guards.
Now the problems may worsen even more. Presumably, numerous extremist groups of radical Islamists have found refuge in the northern provinces of Afghanistan. Now they are conditionally controlled by the Taliban, but in case of destabilization in the country, they can start acting according to their own plan. There are many people from Central Asian countries in their ranks who may try to return home.
What the experts say
Pakistan's strategy in the current conflict is quite understandable, emphasizes Andrei Serenko, a political scientist and expert on Central Asian countries. It is based on the fact that the Taliban currently have limited arsenals of weapons and ammunition.
— Basically, this is what the Americans left behind after their flight in 2021. Over the past time, the Taliban have sold something, spent something. And now the Pakistanis are trying to make sure that the Afghans spend all their leftovers in moderate-intensity battles. If this happens, they will remain virtually unarmed, because they simply have nowhere to buy new ammunition," the expert notes.
Islamabad may already be negotiating with the potential Afghan opposition to start operating inside the country, he admits.
— Pakistanis have a rich experience of the change of power in Afghanistan. I think they are preparing some such scenario now. I wouldn't be surprised if in three or four months, when the Taliban's arsenals are depleted, some kind of force will appear in the country that will fight the central authorities. It is quite possible that we are now witnessing the preparatory part of this plan," the political scientist explains.
The current situation will seriously affect the countries of Central Asia, Serenko predicts. According to him, the region will abandon the view that there is no alternative to the Taliban, and all major projects will be put on pause. The main issue will be security.
— The fact is that the numerous jihadist rabble that has settled in Afghanistan has not been idle in recent years. The militants accumulated strength and trained. What will they do in conditions of instability? They may get involved in a new Afghan civil war, or they may try to attack the countries of Central Asia, in which case Russia will not be able to stay away, the expert believes.
In turn, orientalist Azhdar Kurtov advises not to exaggerate the existing threats. He recalls that the conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan has been going on for more than a hundred years, because no government in Kabul recognized the Durand line, which caused periodic clashes.
— The current skirmishes, of course, are bigger than the previous ones, but they are not fundamentally different from them. In addition, there is no reason to believe that any of the parties will win an unconditional victory," the Izvestia interlocutor explains.
But even in this case, the consequences for the Central Asian countries will still be serious, the expert is sure. The war calls into question the implementation of major infrastructure projects, including the transportation of Turkmen gas, the transfer of electricity from Tajikistan and the construction of a high-speed railway.
— Investors were already very cautious about all these ideas, now they will have even more doubts. Plus, there is a threat of activation of militants who have settled in Afghanistan. Many of these people are from Central Asian countries and have gained combat experience in Syria. Under certain conditions, they may try to move to their homeland, although this is still more of a speculative assumption," Kurtov emphasizes.
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