Hotline: Kabul and Islamabad have moved to open war
The military escalation between Afghanistan and Pakistan has escalated into open hostilities along the Durand Line. Artillery and aviation were used. Against the background of the strikes, the Russian embassy in Islamabad informed Izvestia that it maintains, in cooperation with Pakistan, an appropriate security regime to respond to any threats. A protracted conflict poses risks to regional stability, and closed borders between countries exacerbate the economic losses of the parties. The escalation is also jeopardizing the strategic transport corridors linking Central Asia with Russia.
Military escalation between Afghanistan and Pakistan
The border between the two countries has once again witnessed a military escalation: on February 26, Afghanistan conducted a major operation against Pakistani troops along the Durand Line, responding to recent Islamabad airstrikes on its territory. As a result, Afghanistan claimed 55 dead Pakistani soldiers, the capture of two bases and 19 border posts. Pakistan, in turn, reported the destruction of 130 Afghan soldiers and about 80 pieces of equipment. Aviation and artillery were used on both sides, and there are wounded and civilian casualties.
The Durand Line is an almost undetected 2,640—kilometer demarcation line, drawn in 1893 to define the spheres of influence between the British Empire and Afghanistan. Kabul still does not officially recognize it as a border.
On February 27, fighting resumed. The Afghan Air Force hit Pakistani military bases in the areas of Abbottabad, Jamrud, Naushera and Faisalabad, while Pakistan attacked Paktia province. Afghan media also reported missile strikes on Kabul, as well as the provinces of Khost and Nangarhar. Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said that now his country and the Taliban government in Afghanistan are in a state of open armed confrontation. According to the Afghan Ariana News channel, a "nuclear facility" in Pakistan was also hit.
The Russian side asks both states to return to the negotiating table. "We call on our friendly Afghanistan and Pakistan to abandon dangerous confrontation and return to the negotiating table to resolve all differences through political and diplomatic means," Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said.
In addition, the Russian Embassy in Islamabad told Izvestia that, in cooperation with Pakistan, it maintains an appropriate security regime to respond promptly to any threats, including in light of recent events on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. "The embassy has not received any requests from the Pakistani side for assistance in ensuring security in the country, nor from Russian citizens in Pakistan," the diplomatic mission said. At the same time, the country's Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif is planning a visit to Moscow next week.
Relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan have historically been extremely complicated, Alexey Kupriyanov, head of the Indian Ocean Region Center, explained to Izvestia. The key factor is the Durand line. The new Taliban government is also in favor of redrawing the border. Pakistan, in turn, accuses the Afghan government of supporting the militants of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP, banned in the Russian Federation and recognized as a terrorist Pakistani movement) operating in northwestern Pakistan, the expert said.
— From the point of view of regional stability, the escalation affects not only South Asia, but also Central Asia. Afghanistan remains a key transit link between the two regions, and any destabilization directly jeopardizes infrastructure and transport projects. This is also important for Russia, as it affects the broader context of economic integration," said Omar Nessar, senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
The Trans-Afghan Railway project is one of the promising regional infrastructure initiatives. As Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk reported in May 2025, Russia and Uzbekistan are already conducting survey work in Afghanistan and jointly preparing a feasibility study for the project. It is planned to be completed by the beginning of 2026. The highway is supposed to connect Afghanistan with Pakistan, but the implementation of the project directly depends on the level of security in the region and, according to experts, will require at least five years of construction.
Clashes are undermining the economies of Afghanistan and Pakistan
The previous major escalation occurred on October 10-11, with intense clashes in the provinces of Kunar, Nangarhar and Helmand. Even then, the Afghan side announced a "retaliatory operation" in response to the latest strikes by the Pakistani Air Force. Later, the Afghan Taliban returned to their positions amid calls for a settlement from Saudi Arabia and Iran.
The current confrontation on the Pakistani-Afghan border poses a serious threat to regional security, Omar Nessar believes. The expert notes that the conflict is based on two systemic contradictions that fuel the entire chain of crises between Kabul and Islamabad. This is also a historical factor related to Afghanistan's non-recognition of the Durand Line and the so-called Pashtun issue that follows from it.
Against this background, the expert points out, other contradictions are also escalating — accusations of supporting the Pakistani Taliban, issues of control over the TTP, the expulsion of Afghan refugees from Pakistan and the growing tension around the Pashtun population. All this forms a complex and intractable conflict node.
The closure of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border amid the escalating conflict between the neighbors is increasingly hitting the economies of both countries. Trade has been virtually halted, supply chains have been severed, and losses — from exports of medicines to raw materials and manufactured goods — amount to hundreds of millions of dollars.
The suspension of trade has put particularly strong pressure on Afghanistan, whose exports and imports are directly dependent on Pakistan. With the return of Afghan refugees, rising inflation, declining international aid, and the effects of recent natural disasters, Afghanistan's demand for imports is growing.
Although the protracted "transit war" has already led to structural changes, Omar Nessar notes. Kabul began to actively diversify trade routes, increasing supplies through Iran — the ports of Chabahar and Bandar Abbas, as well as through Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. As a result, Afghanistan's dependence on Pakistan is gradually decreasing, which in the future may change the balance of economic ties in the region.
The losses of Pakistani companies are also significant: according to various estimates, it costs exporters about 50 billion rupees ($177 million) each month, while prolonged trade disruption threatens to permanently lose access to the Afghan and Central Asian markets. Before the border closure, bilateral trade was about $2 billion per year, making Afghanistan one of Pakistan's largest regional partners.
The blockade also disrupts seasonal supplies of vegetables and fruits, as well as exports of medicines, cement, meat and rice. Losses on medicines alone are estimated at $200 million. Disruption of trade opens the way for competitors: Iran, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan can occupy markets that Pakistan will lose for decades.
Islamabad, however, says the borders will remain closed until Kabul provides written guarantees to prevent attacks by the Pakistani Taliban, which Islamabad claims are operating from Afghan territory. They deny the charges.
The President of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Serhad Junaid Altaf, noted the serious consequences for business. "Not only industrialists are under attack, but also workers, transport and logistics chains, factories," he said.
Altaf also believes that the consequences of the border closure go beyond bilateral trade. Disruption of transit routes affects not only the economies of Pakistan and Afghanistan, but also trade with Central Asia and Russia, for which this region is considered an important transport artery.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
