Dubai shock: deliveries of cars from the UAE to Russia stopped
The import of cars from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to Russia has been suspended indefinitely, Izvestia found out. The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and related disruptions in the supply of cars may affect a relatively small part of consumers, but in general it will not have a significant impact on the Russian car market, experts say. At the same time, Russian automakers are not abandoning their plans for the Middle Eastern markets. The details are in the Izvestia article.
Middle East stopcock
Against the background of a sharp escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, major importers have officially suspended the provision of services for the delivery of cars from the UAE. Irina Frank, CEO of Frank Auto, told Izvestia about this. Currently, no one undertakes to predict the timing of the resumption of car deliveries from this country, she noted. According to her, the problem lies not so much in the shelling of the United Arab Emirates, as in serious logistical difficulties.
— Almost all shipments from the UAE went through Iran: by sea to the port of Bandar Abbas, then by car carriers to the north, and then by ferries to Astrakhan or Makhachkala. Now, against the background of military operations and the disruption of communication with Iran, this route has been completely stopped. Suppliers cannot receive information about the batches of cars that were already on the way," Irina Frank told Izvestia.
The market has taken a wait-and-see attitude, she noted. Many companies that were just planning to take up this area abandoned their plans, considering the risks to be "off the scale." Importers, who previously actively delivered cars from Dubai, are now forced to restructure logistics, trying to redirect flows, for example, to Novorossiysk, bypassing Iran, but this comes with new risks and rising costs, said CEO Frank Auto.
The East is a small matter
Against the background of the total volume of imports of both new and used cars into our country, the share of cars imported from the UAE is very small. Thus, according to the data of the analytical agency Autostat, a total of 1.2 million cars were delivered to Russia from other countries last year. At the same time, according to estimates by Sergey Tselikov, CEO of Autostat, 10.2 thousand cars arrived from the Emirates. Thus, in the structure of car imports to the Russian car market, models imported from the UAE account for less than 1%. Last month, 335 cars arrived in Russia from this country, said the general director of Autostat.
Against the background of the total import volume of 1.2 million units, the import figures from the Emirates are a drop in the bucket, Irina Frank agrees. However, compared to the year before last, this trend has tripled, she emphasizes. This statement is also damaged by Sergei Tselikov's calculations.
— For niche and premium models, this has been a critically important and growing channel. The Toyota Land Cruiser Prado, Toyota Harrier, Nissan Note, Mitsubishi Outlander and Dodge Ram were the absolute hits in the model range. Thus, fans of Japanese SUVs and American pickup trucks were under attack: for these cars, the Emirates were the main "window" to the Russian market, Irina Frank noted.
The UAE is far from the main channel in the supply of cars for alternative imports, although it is quite significant for a number of models such as Toyota and Mitsubishi pickups, says Anton Shaparin, vice president of the National Automobile Union. At the same time, a fairly large number of components, assemblies and spare parts were imported to Russia through the Emirates, he notes.
— For example, a significant proportion of the so-called "contract" engines for Japanese car models came from the UAE. The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and, as a result, disruption of logistics chains may lead to disruptions in the supply of such engines and higher prices for them, Anton Shaparin told Izvestia.
Difficulties "in the moment"
The suspension of supplies from the Emirates in the coming months threatens a shortage of specific models that have no direct analogues among mass-market Chinese brands, Irina Frank believes. According to her, prices for RAM, Toyota Land Cruiser Prado and Harrier, which have already been brought and are in warehouses, are likely to go up.
"For the average consumer, this is an unpleasant signal: the choice in the secondary market in the niche of strong Japanese and American SUVs will narrow, and their prices will rise," she believes.
Maxim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of Za Rulem magazine, is not inclined to dramatize the impact of the escalated situation in the Middle East on the Russian automotive market.
— The situation is certainly unpleasant, but far from critical. Of course, at the moment, those who ordered a car from the Emirates will suffer first of all. Someone is likely to face a rise in price caused by the supplier's search for alternative ways, while others risk being left without a car altogether.: It is simply impossible to predict the development of events here. However, in a global sense, the suspension of supplies will not have a significant impact on the Russian market: the volume of imports of cars from this country is too small, Maxim Kadakov believes.
Igor Morzharetto, partner of Autostat, agrees with him. The channel from the Emirates was primarily focused on expensive premium and luxury models, he notes.
— Last year's changes in the rules for calculating recycling have already cut off a significant number of such machines — it has become simply unprofitable to import them, even when registering as individuals. Therefore, as a result, the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East will not have much effect on our car market," he believes.
The plans are unchanged
Some time ago, a number of Iranian automakers, in particular, Iran Khodro and Saipa, announced their desire to enter the Russian market. Even the prospects of producing cars from Iran to Russia were discussed. The current conflict finally puts an end to these plans, Igor Morzharetto is sure.
— It became clear a couple of years ago that the Iranian automakers had not taken any action against Russia except for loud statements. If they didn't do it in a relatively quiet time, they won't do it now," he told Izvestia.
But domestic automakers that already supply or only intend to supply their models to the markets of the Middle East do not plan to change their plans. In particular, AvtoVAZ, which opened a dealership in Dubai last year and began selling a number of Lada models in the UAE, told Izvestia that the current situation had not affected the supply of cars to this country.
— Cars are imported to the Emirates in lots, not daily, so the current situation does not affect the work in any way, — noted AvtoVAZ.
The Ulyanovsk Automobile Plant does not intend to abandon the Middle Eastern markets either.
— The company considers the Middle East as one of its export destinations only in the long term. Despite the dramatically changed situation in the region, we continue to work out plans for market development, hoping for an early resolution of the conflict," a representative of UAZ told Izvestia.
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