The expert predicted a 20-50% drop in sales of new buildings in 2026.

A decline in sales in the new building market in 2026 is almost inevitable, but this will not lead to a significant drop in prices. Alexander Perevoznikov, head of Tymy.Realty, told Izvestia about this on March 5, commenting on the current situation in the primary housing market.

According to him, in 2026, a drop in sales in the primary market is almost inevitable, the only question is scale. Depending on the segment and region, the decrease can range from 20% in an optimistic scenario to 40-50% in a more pessimistic one.

"At the same time, this time, contrary to expectations, a drop in demand is unlikely to lead to a significant decrease in prices as a result of developers competing for a buyer. Many people simply do not have such an option," he said.

Perevoznikov also noted that the cost of construction continues to grow due to the rising cost of materials and labor, as well as the additional tax burden. Despite the surge in sales in late 2025 and early 2026, the profitability of most projects remains at the minimum acceptable level. Under these conditions, the market is more likely to compete with secondary housing, which offers more offers at attractive prices.

No demand: the number of real estate transactions in new buildings decreased in 33 regions

What is the reason and in which regions the decline was recorded?

According to the company's experts, a wait-and-see attitude for investors may not be the most effective strategy, as the market is changing rapidly. However, it is worth focusing not only on the cost per square meter, but on the characteristics of a particular project and additional features. Traditional investment schemes, such as buying at the excavation stage with the expectation of a significant price increase by the time of delivery, may not bring the expected returns in the current conditions.

"In the case of investments, it is important to evaluate a specific object, the amount, goals and timing of investments in order to understand what can be obtained from it in the future. For example, apartments in a good area of Moscow, recently commissioned, may be an advantageous option at the moment," Perevoznikov said.

As the expert noted, since preferential mortgage programs did not apply to this segment, prices here remain moderate. For several years, as long as investors who are not focused on long-term ownership are present on the market, it remains possible to purchase such facilities, renovate them, lease them out and then sell them at a profit. According to the expert, the most favorable conditions in 2026 will be for buyers who have their own funds without attracting debt financing.

Apartment spread: the price of new buildings has increased since the beginning of the year in all major cities

Most of all, the "square" rose in price in Moscow, Kazan, Perm, St. Petersburg and Yekaterinburg.

Head of the analytical center "Dom.On March 2, Mikhail Goldberg announced that this year the average price increase for Russian new buildings could be 10%. The specialist drew attention to the uneven dynamics of the real estate market by region. For example, in large cities like Moscow, housing prices are rising faster than the national average.

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