Which countries are involved in the war in the Middle East. Analysis
The war between Iran, Israel and the United States may involve many participants. Proxies operate for Iran, including Hezbollah, the Houthis, Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (banned in Russia), which Israel has already attacked. In the near future, the countries of Europe will determine the format of their participation. It is difficult for the Arab states themselves to choose sides: Iran's attacks on their territories damage infrastructure and reputation, and open support for Israel can lead to accusations of betrayal of Muslim neighbors. Who was involved in the war and on whose side — in the material of Izvestia.
Who is fighting with whom
• In just a few days, more than a dozen countries have been involved in the rapidly developing conflict in the Middle East. Despite the fact that we are talking about a global confrontation between the United States and Iran, Tehran is attacking all its neighbors with American military bases on their territory. Explosions were heard in the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and Jordan. There were missile launches by Iran towards Cyprus, where the British Air Force base is located. Tel Aviv has actively attacked Iran and Lebanon, with numerous strikes targeting Israel itself.
• On Monday, statements by European leaders about their readiness to enter into conflict if necessary began to appear. Thus, the interests of Great Britain were affected through Cyprus, and France, which has developed economic ties with Arab countries, declared its readiness to protect them from Iran.
• At the same time, the Gulf countries themselves, with the exception of Lebanon, are in no hurry to enter the conflict. Even the UAE, whose territory was more affected by the attacks than its neighbors, took a wait-and-see attitude. The Emirates became one of the main targets of the Iranian strikes due to the deployment of American Air Force and Navy facilities in the country, as well as the headquarters of the CIA. An additional role was played by the UAE's allied relations with the United States, as well as the long-standing territorial dispute with Iran over three islands in the Strait of Hormuz.
• The Gulf states face a difficult choice: respond to the attack or stay away. Many leaders in the region are calling for restraint. Qatar warned that a direct conflict with Iran would be dangerous and weaken both sides. The choice is really difficult: if they do nothing, their reputation will suffer; if they enter the war, they will be considered allies of Israel.
• Most likely, they will try to act on their own through the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to show independence. The main threat is attacks on the oil infrastructure. The loss of these resources will complicate life in the region and affect the global economy. In addition, the strikes may damage the reputation of countries as a safe place for investment and tourism.
Iran's "Proxy"
• Iran has created a network of armed groups known as the "Axis of Resistance" to expand its influence in the region without resorting to the direct involvement of regular troops. These formations receive weapons, financing and training from Tehran. Through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, they coordinate their actions against common opponents. Such groups are called "proxy forces" of Iran, which means that through them Iran takes not direct, but indirect part in conflicts.
• Such proxies include Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in Lebanon and Gaza and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (banned in Russia) in Gaza, Shiite militias in Iraq and proxies in Syria. All of them are capable of missile and artillery strikes, as well as sabotage at sea and on rival territories.
• Escalation continues on the Israel—Lebanon track. Hezbollah has fired rockets and drones at northern Israel. The IDF responded with strikes in southern Lebanon, destroying the organization's headquarters and infrastructure, resulting in the deaths of dozens of people.
Hezbollah remains one of Iran's most powerful proxies, with tens of thousands of missiles and drones, as well as its own fighters and reservists. It can launch massive strikes against Israel and conduct ground operations on the country's northern borders, overloading air defense systems. However, recent losses, the elimination of commanders and the fall of strategic bases in Syria have weakened its capabilities and disrupted logistical supply routes from Iran. This makes it difficult to restore their combat arsenal.
• The Lebanese Government has banned Hezbollah's armed activities throughout the country in order to regain control of the force and strengthen institutions. For a long time, Hezbollah combined military, political and social functions, which gave it great influence within the country. The ban on Hezbollah's armed activities allows Beirut to formally distance itself from the organization's military activities.
• The rest of Iran's groups remain highly combat-ready, receiving missiles, drones and training from Iran, which allows them to attack shipping lanes, infrastructure and rival territories, as well as conduct guerrilla and sabotage operations. At the same time, internal crises, the blockade, humanitarian problems and losses among fighters reduce their effectiveness, and Syrian proxies face the destruction of networks and reduced funding after the resignation of former President Bashar al-Assad.
• All these groups form a decentralized system capable of conducting hybrid warfare, enhancing Iran's strategic depth. However, many of them are at significant risk of destruction or disintegration in a large-scale conflict.
The European side
• Europe is suddenly embroiled in a rapidly developing conflict in the Middle East. Moreover, the involvement of EU countries against the background of Iran's attacks on their military installations in the Middle East will gradually increase. However, Europe itself does not yet have a unified position on the American strategy towards Iran (we wrote about other European disagreements here).
• The leaders of Germany, France and the United Kingdom issued a joint warning to Iran about the possible use of military force in the event of continued missile attacks on their allies in the Middle East, stressing that Tehran's attacks are excessive. At the same time, they plan to cooperate with the United States to coordinate retaliatory steps and strengthen security against the background of the escalation of the conflict.
• However, not everyone agrees with this assessment. For example, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez condemned the actions of the United States and Israel against Iran, stressing that criticism of the regime does not mean support for military intervention. He called for immediate de-escalation, respect for international law and the early resumption of diplomatic dialogue, while appealing to other European States to follow suit. Spain confirmed its words by banning the US military from using bases in Spanish territories for strikes against Iran.
• At the same time, the expert community believes that the current conflict is Iran's direct confrontation not only with the United States, but also with Europe, which has long sought to weaken and eliminate Tehran as an independent player. The topic of nuclear weapons is used as a pretext, and the real goal is to break the political and ideological system of a country that does not obey Western influence and supports forces opposed to Israel.
When writing the material, Izvestia interviewed:
- orientalist Mais Kurbanov;
- Andrey Baklanov, Professor at the Faculty of World Economics and World Politics at the National Research University Higher School of Economics;
- military columnist Dmitry Kornev.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
