What will happen to Iran after Khamenei's death? Analysis
Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in an operation by the United States and Israel. He was killed at his workplace in his residence. Khamenei has led the Islamic Republic for the past 36 years. Ayatollah Arafi became the acting supreme leader of the country. What will happen after the death of Ali Khamenei is in the Izvestia article.
Consolidating power
Khamenei's path to power began after the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Formally, the clergyman was supposed to remain out of politics, but the internal political struggle quickly pushed him to the center of the system. He rose from a preacher and a revolutionary figure to the country's president, and then became the supreme leader, concentrating in his hands decisive influence on the army, special services and key institutions of power.
• Khamenei has managed to build an extensive network of loyal elites. He had the right to veto any strategic decisions and personally determined who could hold important government posts. Under him, any attempts at political liberalization were severely suppressed.
In foreign policy, Khamenei has consistently pursued a confrontational line towards the West, primarily the United States and Israel. The war with Iraq in the 1980s reinforced his conviction that compromise was tantamount to weakness. Under him, Iran expanded its regional influence through allied factions in the Middle East and turned the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps into a key tool for projecting power outside the country.
• In Iran's internal life, Khamenei's rule was accompanied by regular crises. Mass protests — from the Green Movement in 2009 to the demonstrations after the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini at a police station, who was detained for wearing a hijab incorrectly, in 2022 — were suppressed by force, arrests and executions. At the same time, the leader rejected the ideas of political freedoms, considering them imposed from the outside, although sometimes he made tactical concessions to reduce tension in society.
• The nuclear program occupies a special place in his legacy. Khamenei publicly called atomic weapons contrary to Islam, but at the same time supported the development of uranium enrichment technologies and was skeptical of international agreements. His death has left Iran facing a difficult choice: either try to change course and initiate reforms, or maintain a rigid governance model, risking deepening internal divisions and international isolation.
After death
• The death of Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei was the result of a joint US and Israeli airstrike on Tehran on February 28. His murder immediately raised the question of how the top of power would be rebuilt.
• The Iranian state media called the incident a "martyrdom" and reported nationwide mourning for a period of 40 days, the first week with the shutdown of institutions. It was emphasized in the media that the late leader's course would not be revised, and his ideas, on the contrary, should receive a new continuation.
• At the same time, the country has lost other key figures. On the same day, the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Mohammad Pakpour, and the Secretary of the Defense Council, Ali Shamkhani, were killed. The "neutralization of the leadership" of Iran was previously publicly announced by US President Donald Trump, confirming that the purpose of the operation was precisely the highest level of the system.
• After the recognition of Khamenei's death, the authorities announced a temporary management model. Until the election of a new supreme leader, the country will be governed by a collective body with the participation of the President, the head of the judiciary and a representative of the Council of Guardians of the Constitution. Shiite theologian Alireza Arafi, who has long been called a possible successor to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has become a member of Iran's interim governing council, which is tasked with acting as the country's supreme leader.
Candidates to succeed Khamenei
• The formal selection of a successor should be carried out by the Assembly of Leadership Experts, a religious body of 88 theologians with the constitutional right to appoint the country's supreme leader.
• Although the basic law requires that this choice be made as quickly as possible, the situation is complicated by ongoing strikes and security issues. It is known that even during Khamenei's lifetime, reserve lists of candidates were being worked out in Iran in case of the death of the top leadership, but he did not publicly identify a specific heir.
• Several figures are mentioned among the possible successors of the Supreme leader. Mojtaba Khamenei, the 56-year-old son of Ali Khamenei, is considered an influential behind-the-scenes player and is closely associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Iran's acting supreme leader Alireza Arafi, deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts, member of the Guardian Council and head of the religious seminaries system, may also compete for power.
• Another contender is Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri. He represents the most conservative wing of the clergy, is known for his harsh anti-Western views and heads the Academy of Islamic Sciences in the city of Qom. Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ruhollah Khomeini, is considered less radical, but has no significant influence on the security forces and the ruling elite. Another figure is Hashem Hosseini Bushehri. He is the first deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts, a cleric close to Khamenei without noticeable independent political weight and close ties with the IRGC.
A role for the public
• Khamenei has been present in the daily lives of Iranians for decades. His portraits were placed in institutions, schools, on the streets, his speeches were regularly broadcast on television, and key events in the country were accompanied by his comments. He became a familiar and permanent figure, with whom statehood itself was associated. His sudden death is perceived in Iranian society as the end of an entire era.
• In addition, the grief in Iran is increasing due to the uncertainty of the future. Ali Khamenei was the last influential leader of a generation directly associated with the founders of the Islamic republic. His death marks the transition to a new stage, in which it is not yet clear who will be able to maintain the existing system of power and on what terms. For some, mourning is a personal respect for the long—term leader of the country, for others it is anxiety because of the unknown, for others it is following religious and state traditions. It was the combination of these factors that made the reaction to his death so widespread and nationwide.
Iran's Prospects
• There are traditionally two major currents within Iran: one is focused on compromises and deals with the West, the other is focused on resistance and tough protection of sovereignty. After the attacks by the United States and Israel, the positions of supporters of dialogue have sharply weakened, since the attack itself is perceived as proof of the impossibility of reliable agreements. In such a situation, Iran is forced to respond, otherwise it risks losing its independence, even if it is not interested in further escalation.
• At the same time, the West's expectations of massive pro-Western protests in Iran are not justified. Patriotic and anti-American sentiments dominate the streets, rather than calls for a change of power from the outside. Even those Iranians who advocate a freer private life and loosening of religious restrictions are not ready to support external pressure or the country's transformation into a dependent on the West. Society wants change, but not at the cost of losing sovereignty.
• The country's internal transformation is expected in the long term. Iran needs to modernize and gradually strengthen secular governance mechanisms, including the army, bureaucracy, and industry, without formally abandoning the ideals of the Islamic Revolution. Such a restructuring may eventually lead to a change in the balance of power and even a new constitution, but under conditions of external pressure and war, rapid and demonstrative reforms cannot be expected.
When writing the material, Izvestia interviewed:
political scientist Vasily Koltashov;
political scientist Alexei Yaroshenko.
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