The Central Bank stated that there was no risk of a sharp fall in the ruble

A change in the cut-off price for oil within the framework of the budget rule will not cause a sharp weakening of the ruble. Kirill Tremasov, Advisor to the Chairman of the Bank of Russia, said this on February 28 at the Cbonds & Smart-Lab PRO Bonds 2.0 conference.

He recalled that the strengthening of the ruble last year was largely due to changes in the parameters of the budget rule. Now the reverse process will put some pressure on the exchange rate. The adviser to the head of the Central Bank also noted that the consensus forecasts of analysts look adequate and do not imply a collapse of the national currency.

"Now the movement is in the opposite direction, it is clear that this will have a weakening effect on the ruble exchange rate, but this impact is not dramatic," TASS quoted him as saying.

Tremasov said that the parameters could change the trajectory of the rate in 2026. The strength of this influence will be clarified later, and the details will be announced at the March meeting.

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Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on February 25 that the Russian government was considering tightening the budget rule in terms of cut-off prices. According to him, the main parameters for clarifying the rule have already been prepared.

Alexander Schneiderman, head of Alfa-Forex's customer support and Sales department, said on February 20 that the ruble retains the potential to strengthen to 72-74 per dollar while maintaining current dynamics in the oil and foreign exchange markets. According to the expert, the ruble is further supported by tight monetary policy, the tax period and the moderately positive oil market conditions.

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