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- There are no more bets: deposit profitability has dropped to its lowest level in the last two years
There are no more bets: deposit profitability has dropped to its lowest level in the last two years
Average deposit rates in Russia have dropped significantly. The profitability of investments for up to three months decreased to the lowest level in the last two years. Deposits for six months and a year have also become less profitable. Experts believe that the easing of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia has led to this situation. Izvestia found out where it is more profitable to invest.
Minimizing the benefits
Average deposit rates in Russia have dropped to their lowest levels in the last two years. This is evidenced by the index of the financial marketplace "Finuslugi".
The average return on investments for up to three months in the 50 largest banks now stands at 14.2%, which is more than 1% less than the current key rate level. This figure is the lowest since December 2023.
Deposits for six months and a year have also become less profitable. Banks offer up to 13.87% for investments for six months. The average annual deposit rate is 12.75%. The last time such an indicator was recorded was in February 2024.
The current decrease in deposit rates has become a continuation of the easing of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia. At the February meeting of the board of directors, the regulator announced a reduction in the key rate by half a percent to 15.5%. The head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, allowed a further decrease in the indicator.
Key Strength
The key rate remains the basic guideline for the entire percentage curve, confirms Yaroslav Kabakov, Director of Strategy at Finam IC and lecturer at the Higher School of Business at the National Research University Higher School of Economics. Yields on deposits naturally went down, because the market began to put into quotes the passage of the peak of tight monetary policy after the key rate cut. The reaction to such signals by cutting deposit rates ahead of schedule is traditional for banks, agrees investment adviser to the registry of the Central Bank, founder of the online investment university "Financology" Yulia Kuznetsova.
— The average maximum deposit rate of the top 10 banks, according to the Central Bank, dropped to 14.49%, updating the minimum since December 2023. As of February 20, the indicator is already at 14.24% for three—month deposits and 14.27% for six-month deposits," says Denis Astafyev, entrepreneur, fund manager and founder of the SharesPro fintech platform.
This suggests that the financial market has actually already accepted a scenario in which the period of extremely harsh PREP is behind us, says Gayane Zamaleeva, an analyst at the financial marketplace <url>.
However, it is too early to say that the dynamics of the main indicators provides stability for consistent monetary policy easing, warns Mikhail Khachaturian, Associate Professor at the Department of Strategic and Innovative Development at the Financial University.
In the near future, the PREP will remain quite tight, predicts Inna Litvinenko, Candidate of Economics, Associate Professor of Economics and Management at the Russian State University of Social Technologies, recalling that the current reduction in the key rate is only half a percent.
"The regulator is not ready to sharply lower the refinancing rate, because this will increase purchasing power, which is undesirable while work continues to reduce inflation," the expert explains.
At the same time, the Central Bank itself points to the passage of the peak of the rigidity of the PREP and its further mitigation. The regulator's press service, in an interview with Izvestia, reported that the average key rate for 2026 is projected to fall within the range of 13.5–14.5%, with inflation slowing to 4.5–5.5% by the end of the year.
According to Zamaleeva, there are no fears of a sharp spike in inflation against the background of lower deposit rates. A decrease in deposit yields does not automatically translate into a consumer boom, she emphasizes.
— The main inflationary drivers today lie in the plane of the tax burden, rising business costs and logistics chains. The contribution factor is secondary here," the analyst points out.
Usually, lower interest rates on deposits provoke an additional increase in inflation, but in the current situation this is unlikely to happen, since purchasing power remains low, says Litvinenko.
— The buyer spends a lot on current expenses in conditions of uncertainty, increased prices and lower incomes. 40-80% of the population spends money on food, daily expenses and utility bills. It is unlikely that people will start actively spending money from their deposits after interest rates are lowered," the economist explains.
Meanwhile, returns on deposits remain in double digits, and the population's propensity to save remains in conditions of high uncertainty, which will not lead to a surge in consumer demand, Kuznetsova is convinced.
— The most likely scenario seems to be in which, on the one hand, the amount of money withdrawal from deposits will be very limited, and on the other hand, consumers will adhere to a rational model of behavior, that is, decisions on the purchase of certain goods and services will be made based on an assessment of the degree of their necessity, — Khachaturian expects.
If we look at the part of expenses that people spend on savings (the savings rate), then it is at a historically high level, according to the press service of the Central Bank. This contributes to the restrained dynamics of demand and further reduction of inflation, the regulator believes.
— It's also generally wrong to think that people are saving only to spend it as soon as rates go down. Savings are formed by people to ensure financial security and increase wealth, and not just for future daily consumption, the Central Bank emphasizes.
Room for maneuver
At the moment, the banking system has accumulated a record amount of public funds in the entire history of observations, Gayane Zamaleeva points out. The resource base of credit institutions now looks quite stable: in recent years, deposits have become a key savings tool for Russians.
— With weak demand for loans, there is no need to continue raising money at the highest possible interest rates. This can be conditionally called a situation of excessive liquidity," the analyst believes.
With cheaper funding, banks no longer need to aggressively compete for public money through increased interest rates, Yaroslav Kabakov believes. However, the current situation rather indicates more comfortable conditions for raising funds, rather than an excess of liquidity.
The central bank, meanwhile, predicts a structural liquidity deficit in the banking sector for this year in the range of 1.9 trillion to 3 trillion rubles, Denis Astafyev recalls. This leaves no room for banks to relax in the struggle for depositors' funds, he is convinced.
In such conditions, credit institutions are interested in maximizing the preservation and expansion of their portfolios, Mikhail Khachaturian believes.
"Most likely, this will be reflected in the fact that in the foreseeable future, in the spring—summer of 2026, banks will offer customers marketing programs for short-term deposits, in which rates will be slightly higher than both the indicators for daily offers and the key rate indicator," the economist expects.
Depending on expectations for the key rate and sometimes the need to raise funds for a certain period of time, deposit rates may be set by banks in a non-standard way, according to the press service of the Bank of Russia.
— For example, in December, short-term deposit rates were higher than the rates for terms of six months or more, which were below 15%. Banks prefer not to borrow for longer periods at high rates. To do this, they support increased rates on short deposits," the regulator says.
It should also be borne in mind that the cash accumulated by banks does not actually participate in turnover due to high loan rates, Inna Litvinenko clarifies. Businesses are not interested in loans on current terms, which is why the funds do not work in the classical sense of the banking mechanism.
"Businesses will step up their investment activities and start implementing development projects again only after the key interest rate is lowered to 10-12%," the Izvestia interlocutor predicts.
Change of course
Given the cycle of lowering the key rate, in order to lock in profitability for the long term, it makes sense to consider long-term deposits, the press service of Finuslug told Izvestia. Currently, the average annual deposit rate in the top 20 banks in terms of household funds is 12.79%, and for deposits for 1.5-3 years – 10.61—11.40%, according to the deposit index calculated by the marketplace.
The current moment looks advantageous for fixing these conditions, Gayane Zamaleeva believes. The average returns on deposits are likely to continue to decline further, and partial allocation of funds over a several-year horizon will allow for a relatively comfortable income level.
However, it is important to understand that in conditions of softening the PREP, long-term deposits acquire the character of investments aimed only at preserving available free financial resources, says Mikhail Khachaturian. The decision to open them may be dictated by the desire to keep funds at the level of current inflation, but not to increase capital.
You can open a deposit at the current rate if the task is to save up to 1.4 million rubles, since this amount falls under deposit insurance, says Inna Litvinenko. It is no longer worth investing more than this, she is convinced.
The decision to fix the yield on annual and longer deposits seems reasonable to Denis Astafyev. But in general, the reduction in rates signals the need to think about changing the savings strategy, he draws attention.
Yulia Kuznetsova sees the diversification of funds between deposits and bond instruments as a more balanced approach.
— In the current conditions, investments in the stock market can bring returns comparable to or even higher than the current key interest rate. In this regard, we can predict another round of growth in their popularity, similar to the situation observed during the pandemic," Khachaturian expects.
Astafyev sees money market funds as the most interesting alternative to deposits, since they follow the RUONIA index (now about 15.75%) and allow you to earn on a potential increase in overnight rates (short-term overnight deposit) even in the face of a general decline.
In turn, Yaroslav Kabakov predicts that the most noticeable interest among citizens will be federal loan bonds and corporate bonds of quasi-government companies, including foreign currency bonds.
"However, such instruments assume a different risk profile and volatility compared to guaranteed deposits," the expert warns.
Russians may also be attracted by investments in metal accounts or stocks, Litvinenko admits. But it is worth resorting to these tools if a person understands the issue or trusts his broker.
Finuslugi is already showing interest in investment products. In particular, the share of reinvested funds from deposits on the marketplace exceeded 3% in January. For comparison, in January 2025, this figure was 1.06%.
—First of all, money market instruments, bonds and mutual funds are popular with customers, demand will continue to grow against the background of easing the Central Bank's monetary policy," the press service of Finuslug emphasizes.
The ruble protects
But the probability of a massive outflow of funds from deposits in foreign currency remains quite low, says Yulia Kuznetsova. This is due to the fact that the difference in yields on ruble-denominated instruments remains significant, while currency risks persist.
As long as ruble-denominated instruments maintain double-digit returns, the incentive to dramatically change the structure of savings remains rather weak, explains Gayane Zamaleeva. An additional constraint is the current regulatory conditions.
In light of the existing restrictions on the turnover of foreign currency, the transfer of money stored in deposits into it is possible only to generate the amount of funds needed for foreign travel, Mikhail Khachaturian believes. In his opinion, even deposits in friendly currencies will not become a stable alternative to ruble savings or investments in the stock market.
"An increase in investments in foreign assets is also unlikely, both due to the difficulty of conducting monetary and financial transactions with friendly and neutral countries, and due to the narrow range of potential investors among individuals who are residents of the Russian Federation," the source believes.
Potentially, Russians may pay attention to currency, real estate or foreign assets, but such decisions depend not only on the level of interest rates, but primarily on exchange rate expectations, inflation and the risks of access to foreign infrastructure, says Yaroslav Kabakov.
At the same time, the ruble feels confident, and there are no devaluation expectations against the background of a stable balance of payments and high real rates, Denis Astafyev emphasizes.
— The main thing now is not to succumb to hype, but to carefully distribute savings between deposits and stock market instruments, — the expert urges.
The Bank of Russia also sees no risk of the population's funds flowing into foreign currency. The ruble exchange rate has significantly strengthened in 2025 due to tight monetary policy and remains fairly stable, according to the regulator's press service.
Deferred benefit
Despite the softening of the PREP, interest rates on loans and mortgages will not change in the foreseeable future, Mikhail Khachaturian is convinced. The current level of reduction in the key rate is already reflected in the current figures, he is confident.
A decrease in loan rates after a key change usually occurs with a lag, recalls Yulia Kuznetsova. Banks will carefully review the terms of mortgages and consumer loans, taking into account the risks of borrowers.
Over time, the rates on such loans will decrease, but this process is not proportional to the reduction in deposit rates due to the consideration of credit risks, the quality of portfolios and the competitive environment, Yaroslav Kabakov points out.
"Banks always optimize the cost of funds raised first and only then gradually adjust credit products,— explains Gayane Zamaleeva.
The average cost of consumer loans is decreasing at a slower pace than the profitability of savings and investment products, the press service of Finuslug confirms. The average full cost of a loan in the cash loans segment as of February 19, according to the marketplace, is 30.92% among the 20 largest banks in terms of retail loan portfolio (+0.02% relative to the level of the beginning of 2026). During the same period, deposit rates up to and including the year fell by 0.45–1.0%. In annual terms, the average interest rate on cash loans decreased by 3.2%, while the average deposit rates up to and including the year decreased by 6.8–7.5%.
At the same time, market rates on loans, including mortgages, have already begun to move down, Denis Astafyev draws attention.
— So far, mortgages remain expensive (the average market rate is about 20.5%), but the general trend has been set, — the expert believes.
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