Commercial wine: how Trump's new tariffs affect the global economy
Economic uncertainty in the United States is increasing dramatically: as early as 2026, the volume of US exports and imports will begin to decrease, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. The catalyst for this process, economists call the recent decision of the country's Supreme Court, which declared illegal the previously introduced nationwide tariffs — the authority left in force only duties on supplies of steel, aluminum, lumber and cars. In response, Donald Trump announced the introduction of duties of 15% for all countries of the world starting from February 24. Izvestia investigated how these actions could affect the American economy, world trade, and Russian oil supplies.
What tariffs were affected by the decision of the US Supreme Court
In response to universal duties of 15%, some countries, even those close to the United States, will begin to reduce trade with the United States, impose their own tariffs or move to regional blocs. This could finally split the global market into currency trading zones, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe.
On Friday, February 20, the US Supreme Court declared illegal the nationwide tariffs imposed by Donald Trump in 2025 against most countries. The decision affected the vast majority of measures, including "reciprocal" duties against a number of countries — on goods from China, Canada and Mexico, as well as against India due to purchases of Russian oil, said financial adviser and founder Rodin.Capital Alexey Rodin.
For the first time in his second term, the American leader applied tariff measures against China, Mexico and Canada last February, citing drug trafficking from these regions. The next tariffs were announced in April — Trump announced the imposition of duties ranging from 10 to 50% on goods from almost every country in the world. At the time, he called the trade deficit (when more is imported than exported) an "extraordinary and unusual threat" to the United States.
However, the Supreme Court of the country recognized that the law does not give the president the authority to tax imports, the power belongs to Congress. At the same time, the decision did not affect industry tariffs on steel, aluminum, lumber, and automobiles.
At the same time, the court did not specify whether the US administration should reimburse companies for the costs due to tariffs. As Bloomberg notes, if the court obliges the White House to return the money, the amount could reach $170 billion.
This arrangement does not mean that trade restrictions will be automatically reset: alternative legal instruments are still available to the Trump administration to impose or maintain tariffs, although they may be less flexible and more difficult to implement compared to the previously used mechanism, said Adam Abdulatipov, senior analyst at BCS World Investments. According to him, the speed and efficiency of decision-making may potentially decrease, but the strategic course will not necessarily change.
As Izvestia has already written, Washington may take measures against countries with "unfair" trade practices, as it did in the case of China. There is also another tool that allows you to quickly raise duties to 15% for 150 days with a trade deficit.
Donald Trump called the verdict of the court a disgrace and promised to use a backup plan. And later, he increased the import duties imposed in 2025 on goods from all countries, first to 10%, and then to 15%. According to the White House, the measure will take effect on February 24 and will be valid for 150 days.
Politically, the American leader has found a loophole: now, arguing for his decision, he can say that the court's ruling has created a budget hole, and revenues can be attracted to the country through new tariffs, said Andrei Glushkin, a member of the Council of the MRO Delovaya Rossiya.
How will the court's decision affect the White House administration
Economic uncertainty in the United States has intensified after the Supreme Court's decision to cancel some of the tariffs. American companies do not understand which goods and from which countries will be taxed and at what rates. This complicates planning for supplies, investments, and hiring.
In addition, the actions of the Supreme Court and subsequent statements by the White House have damaged his reputation both inside and outside the United States. A statement on the immediate replacement of the canceled duties with new ones may consolidate the image of the current administration as a structure that ignores the traditional separation of powers for the United States.
Even the seemingly monolithic Republican camp was affected by the split: some congressmen, including Jeff Hurd, openly voted with the Democrats for a resolution condemning the duties. Other party members of the US president simply refrain from commenting, tacitly supporting the highest court.
Involvement in the internal political conflict over tariffs may deprive the ruling party of its chances to hold a majority in Congress in the midterm elections this fall: if negative sentiments grow, Republican candidates will prefer to distance themselves from the president and his initiatives.
In addition, recent events have seriously weakened the administration's position in negotiations with trading partners, who prefer to wait for the results of the midterm elections. For example, India postponed its delegation's visit to Washington to finalize a trade deal, Bloomberg claims. The European Union has also reportedly decided to freeze the approval of the previously concluded agreement.
How new duties can change global trade
While the global economy has adapted to the tariff wars and, in practice, has largely offset their theoretical negative effect, the political consequences of tariff fluctuations have begun to come to the fore, said Egor Toropov, an American analyst at the National Research University Higher School of Economics. This naturally leads to an aggravation of relations between the United States and other leading economies of the world.
"The Supreme Court's cancellation of the legal basis for imposing tariffs bypassing Congress, which has been in effect for the entire second term of Trump, is a favorable reason for rhetorical escalation of economic diplomacy in order to achieve the best starting positions in new US trade negotiations with the EU, India and China," the political scientist noted.
The introduction of new import duties will primarily hit the traditional American allies — the UK and the EU. High tariffs sharply reduce the competitiveness of European exports, which leads to a reduction in supplies, especially in such important sectors as mechanical engineering, pharmaceuticals and aviation, Alisa Kazelko, CEO of LATAM Consulting Group and a member of the Russian Export Control Association, told Izvestia.
— A new round of trade wars will hit the US allies more than their "rivals", for example, the economies of the BRICS countries. China, which has tremendous experience in economic confrontation with the United States, is likely to resort to retaliatory measures in the form of reducing exports of rare earth metals that are critical for the United States for the development of electronics, the expert emphasized.
Beijing has publicly called on Washington to abandon unilateral duties. "There are no winners in the trade war, and protectionism leads to nothing," the Chinese Ministry of Trade warned. India, unlike China, does not have a strong lever of pressure on the American economy, so it will limit itself to diversifying economic ties, Alisa Kazelko believes. New Delhi is already moving closer to Beijing, distancing itself from Washington.
"In the trade war started by Trump, he himself may become the loser — the allies are rapidly moving away from the United States, and the rivals are gaining strength," the expert concluded.
Since last summer, Washington has been demanding that New Delhi stop buying Russian oil. Despite statements by American officials that India has allegedly already committed to stop buying black gold from the Russian Federation, national companies continue to fulfill contracts. In this context, the confusion over the legality of US duties will give the Indian authorities another opportunity to pursue their economic interests.
Do Trump's tariffs affect Russian oil supplies
Now the new duties of 15% apply to all countries of the world — India and China automatically fall under them. However, the US administration can grant individual exceptions, for example, to cancel tariffs if buyers of Russian oil reduce their supply volumes or abandon them altogether, believes Andrey Glushkin from Delovaya Rossiya.
Nevertheless, Russia will continue to sell oil to India and China, although the terms of supply will change so that refineries in other countries will not fall under the new restrictive measures of the United States, says Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global.
In the coming months, the trend towards fragmentation of the global economy will continue. Individual countries, in particular China, can further reduce the volume of American exports and imports, strengthening the gap between the largest economies, she is sure.
The United States is destroying the last remnants of WTO rules with its new duties, Andrei Glushkin said. If the States used to put pressure on points, now they are introducing a general barrier. In his opinion, this will eventually provoke a chain reaction: the EU and China will begin to impose their "flat taxes" in response or move into regional blocs, finally splitting the global market into currency and trade zones.
In this case, global growth should not be expected to accelerate: in 2026, the global economy will show moderate dynamics in the range of 2.5–2.7%. At the same time, protectionism will increase, including in countries that are traditionally closely linked to the American market, such as the European Union, Natalia Milchakova said.
"The foreign exchange market will also remain under pressure from structural factors," she said. — The dollar will continue to weaken, and after the resumption of Fed rate cuts (at the end of January, the regulator lowered the rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.5—3.75%), the rate of its decline against major reserve currencies may accelerate.
For the ruble, this means staying at the same level: it is not worth waiting for a sharp weakening in the near future. At the same time, geopolitics, especially the situation around Iran, will remain a key factor in the oil market. In the baseline scenario, Brent will trade in the range of $63-73 per barrel in March. And if the dialogue between the United States and Iran continues in a negotiated format, the quotes, the expert expects, will gravitate towards the lower limit of this corridor.
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