Goal number one: Why Israel considers Turkey the next threat after Iran
Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has sharply criticized Turkey and its President Recep Erdogan. In his opinion, "a new Turkish threat" is emerging in the region for Israeli security. Ankara may join the military pact between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, and then a center of power will appear, whose influence will not be limited to the Middle East region, the politician believes. Details of the growing tension between Israel and Turkey can be found in the Izvestia article.
The New Iran
"Turkey is the new Iran. Erdogan is a sophisticated, dangerous politician who seeks to encircle Israel. We can no longer turn a blind eye to this," former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said at a conference of American-Jewish organizations in Jerusalem.
In his opinion, the Republic of Turkey is becoming a strategic threat to Israel as Ankara expands its regional influence.
"While high-ranking officials in Jerusalem are receiving money from Qatar, the Turks and Qataris are strengthening their positions in Syria, and now, with Israel's consent, also in Gaza. A new axis of evil is being created along the lines of the Iranian one, based on the Muslim Brotherhood (a terrorist organization banned in Russia)," the expert said.
Bennett added that Israel should recognize what he called Ankara's strategic ambitions and respond accordingly. The former head of government noted that the Turkish Republic is also trying to set Saudi Arabia against Israel. Thus, in his opinion, Turkey is trying to create a "hostile Sunni axis, which will include nuclear-armed Pakistan."
Bennett is confident that threats emanate from Tehran and Ankara, which Israel has to confront at the same time. As a solution to the problem, he suggests that politicians consider their activities as "strategic challenges requiring coordinated responses."
The former prime Minister did not miss the opportunity to criticize the current Israeli authorities. He accused them of the fact that the country is in a "deep split," stressing that "those responsible for past crises should not remain in power."
"Three decades have passed since Benjamin Netanyahu came to power. The greatest catastrophe in the history of Israel occurred during his reign. A leader should know when it's time to leave with dignity," the politician stressed.
The Triple Alliance
The former Israeli Prime Minister is referring to the emerging Turkey–Saudi Arabia–Pakistan axis. In early January, there were reports that Ankara was considering joining a defense alliance with Islamabad and Riyadh. Individually, each of the parties has a fairly close relationship with each other.
Military cooperation between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia began in 1967 after the signing of the defense protocol. Since 1982, the parties have been conducting joint military maneuvers, and since the mid-1990s they have included naval exercises. 70,000 Pakistani soldiers serve in the armed forces of the kingdom.
Last September, relations between Riyadh and Islamabad reached a new level. They signed an agreement on mutual defense. The document mentions an obligation that copies article 5 of the NATO treaty — "any aggression against any of the countries will be considered as aggression against both."
Relations between Turkey and Pakistan are even warmer. Pakistani media have repeatedly noted that President Erdogan, who visits the country, "comes to his home." The Turks did not forget that even before the republic appeared, in 1919, when, after the defeat in the First World War, the Ottoman Empire could disappear from the political map of the world, the Muslims of British India opposed its partition and the intervention of Western countries, as well as for the preservation of the power of the Ottoman caliph.
In 1947, when Pakistan gained independence, the Turks were the first to establish diplomatic relations with the country. Since then, despite the crises and military coups in both countries, the parties have been closely friends. Their good relations are fueled by active military cooperation.
Ankara has upgraded Islamabad-owned F-16 fighter jets, transferred military drone manufacturing technologies to it, and is also building a military corvette for the Pakistani Navy.
Meanwhile, Pakistan would like to participate in the Turkish fifth-generation fighter KAAN program.
From rivals to friends
Relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia, which considered Ankara its main rival for influence over Sunni Muslims in the world, warmed in 2015. The countries questioned the reliability of the US partnership, feeling the need to establish their own military-political cooperation.
With Riyadh's money, Ankara began to purchase weapons, which were then supplied to its allies in the Free Syrian Army, and Saudi planes based at the Turkish Incirlik airbase bombed the positions of ISIS militants (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation).
Cooperation continued in Somalia, Sudan and Yemen. At the very beginning of this year, the first ever joint meeting of Saudi and Turkish naval officers was held in the Turkish capital.
And in early February, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited the kingdom, where he agreed on cooperation between the two countries in the field of defense industry. In particular, according to the head of state, an agreement on joint investments in the KAAN fighter project can be signed at any time.
Saudi officials greet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his wife Emine Erdogan upon their arrival in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on February 3.
As part of the deal, Saudi Arabia may receive from Ankara from 20 to 50 combat aircraft. In addition, joint production and technology transfer are expected from Turkey, which fits into Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's Vision 2030 program, according to which 50% of the kingdom's defense spending should be directed to locally produced products.
It is believed that each of the three countries could make a tangible contribution to a potential alliance: Pakistan — nuclear weapons, missiles and large human resources, Saudi Arabia — money, and Turkey — armed forces with combat experience and a developed military-industrial complex.
Who wants to compete with Israel
In an interview with Izvestia, Alina Sbitneva, a researcher at the Department of the Near and Post-Soviet East at the INION RAS, noted that the situation in the Middle East poses a danger not only to Turkey and the entire region, but, in the case of worst-case scenarios, to the global community as a whole.
— In this way, Israel is trying to remind Ankara that it must bear full responsibility for its words. And since it calls itself a long—established regional center of power and even claims a supra-regional level of development, it should be aware of who it is dealing with in the field of big politics," the Turkologist emphasized.
The political scientist added that Ankara would no longer be able to "make loud statements and always get away with it."
— By the way, there is a very interesting statement by Bennett that Turkey is the new Iran. I would like to draw your attention to the fact that the initial claims against Iran were, for the most part, about its nuclear program. And what exactly Bennett meant here is an open question," the expert said.
The specialist explained that Turkey and Israel have not had exemplary relations for a long time, and all previous attempts to reconcile have also failed.
— This ideological and value gap is too big, and the idea of the regional order is very different, there are more than enough nodes of contradictions there. Israel is not happy with Turkey's policy in Syria, and even more so with its flirtations with Gaza, the analyst believes.
Sbitneva believes that Turkey still needs to be given its due — so far its actions there have been limited to harsh, sometimes overly harsh statements and, in fact, humanitarian aid. Although Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and others periodically declare Turkey's readiness to send its contingent there, including military personnel, to resolve the situation, they are not doing this yet, because they understand what the appearance of the Turkish military there could be fraught with.
— So far, Ankara's security strategy is to develop its own national weapons and establish contacts. Turkey is indeed forming cross-regional ties bypassing the United States, which in theory could play into Ankara's hands in the event of a peak confrontation or military aggression," the interlocutor is sure.
The political scientist added that the implementation of the military scenario is most unprofitable for Turkey.
— It does not matter whether it is a direct clash with Israel or a change in the situation in neighboring Iran, it will in any case greatly shake Turkey. And Ankara would like to compete with Israel last of all," the expert summed up.
The risk for Russia
Elena Panina, director of the RUSSTRAT Institute of International Political and Economic Strategies, believes that if the Turkey—Saudi Arabia–Pakistan axis were formed, a new pole of power would appear.
"The emergence of a trilateral alliance would be a signal to everyone at once, and above all to the United States, since the creation of such a bloc would ensure the erosion of the American monopoly on the role of a "security guarantor" in the Middle East. And here we cannot talk about a "mini-NATO", where there is only one leading force. If everything works out for the three capitals, then a very stable structure will arise in which each side contributes to the deal what the other two lack," the political scientist is sure.
In her opinion, a trilateral pact would dramatically accelerate many geopolitical processes in the region.
"It is clear that Israel's position will deteriorate. This is also why Washington will have to strengthen its presence in the region. For the UAE, this is generally a matter of status: if a new security center is being formed, then the Emirates will not stand aside. Rather, a competition of unions will begin, in which everyone builds a network of partners," the political scientist believes.
The expert added that the union would pose a potential threat to India and even to China.
"Besides, it will seriously affect the interests of Russia. A military pact with money, technology and nuclear weapons, besides operating on the concept of Islamic solidarity, would become a very powerful magnet for the countries of Central Asia and North Africa, which, at a minimum, would mean replacing the military competencies of the Russian Federation with Turkish ones," the analyst is sure.
Panina believes that this "will entail a loss of competitiveness where Russia is strong: short-range air defense, ammunition, cheap shock weapons, modernization of the Soviet legacy."
"And most importantly, in this case, Russia risks losing not so much the market as control over what can be bought "without the West." Because Turkey will offer it technologically not always worse, often cheaper, and diplomatically — in many ways "thinner". Thus, it is worth taking the potential "triple pact" very seriously," the political scientist concluded.
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