Vienna weight: Russia, China and Iran are trying to prevent a US strike
Moscow, Beijing and Tehran are coordinating their actions to prevent an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. The Troika's diplomats have already brought to the IAEA the need for a political and diplomatic settlement of the nuclear dossier, Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia's permanent representative to international organizations in Vienna, told Izvestia. This is happening against the background of media reports about the readiness of the United States to strike Iran. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump gave Tehran 10-15 days to reach an agreement. The failure of negotiations threatens the region with the largest US attack in the last 20 years and a sharp jump in oil prices.
Trump gave Iran no more than 15 days
The situation in the Middle East is teetering on the brink of a full-scale clash. While the Pentagon is deploying a second strike group to the shores of Iran, Moscow, Beijing and Tehran have intensified cooperation in the Vienna format. The main task is to prevent an uncontrolled escalation before the deadline set by Donald Trump for the Iranian leadership to "think" has expired.
On February 18, the Permanent Representatives of Russia, China and Iran held a meeting in Vienna with the Director General of the IAEA, Rafael Grossi.
— Special emphasis was placed on the need for an exclusively political and diplomatic settlement of all existing problems in this context. This kind of cooperation between the diplomatic missions of the three countries will continue here," Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia's permanent representative to International organizations in Vienna, told Izvestia.
Refueling an F-22 fighter jet in the air
The activation of the "Vienna troika" is taking place against the background of alarming reports. American and Western media are reporting a large-scale increase in the American military presence in the Middle East. The second US aircraft carrier strike group is due to arrive in the region in the coming days, and by the end of the week, according to press estimates, these forces may be brought to full combat readiness.
On February 19, Donald Trump set a deadline in his usual harsh manner: Tehran has 10 to 15 days to reach an agreement on a new version of the nuclear deal.
CNN sources claim that the US administration has already received reports on the readiness of the armed forces for a possible operation after a significant strengthening of the fleet and aviation in the region. The Wall Street Journal writes about the formation of the largest US air group since the invasion of Iraq.
The aircraft carrier Gerald Ford in the Mediterranean
According to monitoring sources, the aircraft carrier Gerald Ford has already been deployed in the Mediterranean Sea. If the American command decides to move closer to the Persian Gulf and link up with the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln, the transition will take another 5-7 days. There are several dozen F/A-18 and F-35 carrier-based fighters on board the ship. At the same time, the United States is building up its aviation group in the region: 36 F-16 fighters from Italy, Germany and the United States, as well as 12 F-22 fighters, are being deployed. Dozens of tanker planes, strategic reconnaissance drones and long-range radar detection aircraft have already been sent to the region. An additional battery of THAAD missile defense systems has been delivered to Israel.
The American president, according to ABC TV channel, considered various scenarios of strikes on Iran — from targeted to large-scale bombing of government, military and nuclear facilities. At the same time, according to media sources, the White House is discussing arguments both in favor of military intervention and against it.
Launcher ABOUT THAAD
The current escalation is a direct result of the failure of negotiations last summer. In June 2025, the United States attacked Iran's nuclear centers. Tehran responded on June 23 with Operation Blagovest Pobedy, attacking the American Al-Udeid base in Qatar with ballistic missiles. After that, the Iranian authorities announced the suspension of uranium enrichment, but the real state of the nuclear program is still controversial.
Where the US military is most vulnerable
Tehran warns of its readiness for a harsh response. Iran's Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Amir Saeed Iravani, sent a letter to Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stating that in the event of military aggression, all bases and facilities of hostile forces in the region will be considered legitimate targets. The Iranian military has also publicly stated the possibility of attacks on Israeli targets and American bases and ships.
According to Western analysts, there are now between 30,000 and 40,000 American troops stationed in the region, stationed at a network of air bases and naval facilities from Turkey and Iraq to the Persian Gulf countries. One of the most vulnerable points is in Syria, where there are less than a thousand American troops. According to media reports, the Pentagon is gradually withdrawing its contingent.
The launch of an Iranian ballistic missile during an exercise
The diplomatic track does not meet the expectations of the parties. The talks between the United States and Iran, mediated by Oman, which took place on February 17 in Geneva, brought only partial progress: the parties agreed on the basic principles of a future agreement, but key differences on sanctions, missile program and regional policy remain. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi spoke about significant progress compared to the first round.
Tehran is also trying to boost Washington's interest in reaching an agreement. According to Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister for Economic Diplomacy, Hamid Ghanbari, the talks touch on "sensitive economic sectors," including energy, natural resources and the purchase of civil aviation equipment.
According to media reports, at the talks in Switzerland, Iran offered the United States joint investments in the oil and gas sector and the purchase of American aircraft, hoping to ease the sanctions regime and unlock foreign assets. At the same time, CBS sources note that the special envoy of the US President, Steve Witkoff, was recommended to conduct parallel diplomatic tracks, separating the discussion of the nuclear program from other issues, including missile development and the activities of armed groups allied to Tehran.
Economic impact of the strike
Orientalist Leonid Tsukanov believes that the risks of escalation have increased significantly in recent weeks, as the Geneva talks did not yield a breakthrough on key issues such as Iran's missile program and regional influence. An additional factor remains Israel's position. The media reports on an unprecedented level of secrecy surrounding contacts with Washington and the postponement of a meeting of the military cabinet on February 22, which may indicate an agreement on the final targets of the attack.
Yuri Mavashev, a lecturer at the Department of World Politics and World Economy at the RANEPA Institute of Management, is confident that the current tension is "the highest possible." According to him, the United States and Israel "have already taken a swing", warning the allies about the need to evacuate citizens from areas of potential conflict, and the Israeli emergency services are on high alert.
— The future fate of Iran depends on how successful the Chinese megaproject on the reconstruction of the world "One Belt— One Road" will be. Washington and Israel are promoting an alternative agenda: they want to revive the India–Middle East–Europe economic corridor," he said.
Against this background, the Vienna format of cooperation between Russia, China and Iran is gaining special importance as one of the few existing mechanisms aimed at curbing escalation.
For Russia, Iran's stability is not only of military-political, but also of strategic economic importance, primarily in the context of the North—South transport corridor and infrastructure projects being implemented in the country. Moscow is involved in the construction of the Bushehr nuclear power plant, as well as in the development of logistics infrastructure that should connect Russia with the markets of the Middle East and South Asia. If diplomacy fails in the coming weeks, these projects may be threatened by a new round of military escalation.
The markets are already responding to rising tensions. On the morning of February 20, oil prices went up after the statements of the US president, it follows from the trading data.
An additional risk factor is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. According to the International Energy Agency, about 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products per day pass through it, accounting for almost 20% of global oil trade and more than 30% of liquefied natural gas supplies. This topic has already been raised in Tehran after last year's attacks on Iranian facilities — as a result, the Parliament of the Islamic Republic voted for the possibility of its closure. The implementation of such a scenario can lead to an instant oil shock: prices can soar to $ 250-300 per barrel, which is fraught with global inflation and the collapse of financial markets.
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