Global prices for coffee and cocoa are declining. What does this mean?

Cocoa futures fell by 70 percent, forcing Ghana to cut payments to farmers by 30% and review the entire producer support system. Coffee futures also fell significantly compared to last year, losing 29.51% of their value. Why there is a decrease in prices in the markets and how this will affect the cost of coffee and chocolate in retail — in the material of Izvestia.

Falling cocoa prices

• In early 2026, cocoa bean futures fell below $4,000 per tonne for the first time since November 2023, breaking a two-year uptrend. Cocoa prices reached a historical maximum at the end of 2024, exceeding $12,000 per ton. But even after futures on the markets have fallen by 70%, cocoa prices remain too high, which puts pressure on demand.

• The reason for the fall in prices was the expected large harvest and a decrease in demand for cocoa beans. Chocolate manufacturers who bought cocoa at high prices immediately raised the price tag for their products and made changes to the recipe in order to reduce the content of expensive raw materials. At the end of 2025, the cocoa processing rate in Europe decreased by about 3% compared to the same period of the previous year, the largest decrease in the last 11 years. Consumption growth is not expected in either Europe or Asia yet — it is not profitable for manufacturers to change the formulation again for the sake of market conditions.

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• In December, Ivory Coast's warehouses were overwhelmed due to low demand, and cocoa producers in Ivory Coast and Ghana turned to the government for help amid falling prices. Due to the increased supply in the markets, the futures price has crept down. To contain the fall in value, Ivory Coast, the largest cocoa exporter— intends to suspend purchases of a new crop of cocoa beans, as the regulator is trying to sell them at a price higher than the futures price.

What affected the cost of coffee

• Coffee futures also fell significantly compared to last year, losing 29.51% of their value. On February 9, they fell to a six-month low amid expectations of a record arabica harvest in Brazil due to favorable weather conditions. In 2026, arabica production is projected to grow by 23.2%, and robusta by 6.3%.

• The growth of coffee exports from Vietnam also put pressure on prices. In January 2026, robusta shipments to the foreign market increased by 38.3% year-on-year, despite the fact that Vietnam increased coffee exports by 17.5% a year earlier. The increased supply of robusta on the market from Vietnam and Indonesia is shifting investor interest in favor of this type of coffee and putting additional pressure on the price of Arabica.

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What caused the price increase and what is the situation in the world?

• The cancellation of duties imposed by US President Donald Trump in April 2025 also exerted pressure on the futures price. Tariffs on coffee imports from Brazil (more than 50%), Colombia (10%) and Vietnam (20%) led to a 21% increase in the price of the drink for American consumers, and producers were forced to rebuild logistics chains: Brazilian coffee exports to the United States decreased by 46%. On November 14, 2025, Trump signed a decree on the removal of duties on a number of goods, including fruits, beef and coffee, however, the effects of tariffs may still be felt on the market.

• Despite the marked decline, coffee futures have started to strengthen in the market in recent months amid declining sales by Brazil. In December, the country reduced exports of Arabica by 18.4% and robusta by 61% year—on-year. The decline in exports was influenced by the strengthening of the real, which reduced the income of exporters. In addition, manufacturers are increasingly choosing to sell green and roasted coffee themselves, thereby reducing the number of intermediaries.

What does this mean?

• The coffee and cocoa market remains volatile, as it is highly dependent on external factors: the harvest is affected by climate change and the reduction of productive trees — due to low yields and low incomes, coffee and cocoa producers have not replaced plantings for several years. At the same time, the sharp decline in the futures rate — in fact, the expected value of contracts — shows that speculation in the market has reached its limit: the expected increase in the cost of coffee and cocoa has come down to a decrease in demand and the search for substitutes for raw materials.

• Lower cocoa prices are unlikely to affect the cost of chocolate in the next six months. It is assumed that chocolate producers will spend all this time on cocoa beans purchased at high prices. At the same time, there was a slight decrease in the cost of chocolate in Russia at the beginning of the year, but this is more likely the effect of the strengthening of the ruble.

• The cost of coffee on world markets is also decreasing due to the correction — the 2025 price included geopolitical risks, many of which did not materialize. The price of grain will depend on the harvests that are harvested before the end of September. The cost of a cup of coffee in Russia will be affected not only by the situation on world markets, but also by the exchange rate of the national currency, since coffee beans are supplied from abroad. Pressure on the price, as in the case of cocoa, may be exerted by a decrease in demand and the search for affordable substitutes.

During the preparation of the material, Izvestia interviewed:

• Vasily Koltashov, an economist and head of the Center for Political Economy Studies.