What is the essence of political reforms in Kazakhstan? Analysis

Kazakhstan is completing the transition from a model with a dominant presidential government. The constitutional provisions being developed form a new architecture of the political system, where the key elements are the weighty role of parliament and the responsibility of the government while maintaining a strong presidential institution. What is the essence of these changes and why they occur is in the Izvestia material.

How will the Constitution change

• A special commission was established on January 21 to prepare amendments to the Constitution of Kazakhastan. A preliminary draft of the basic law was published on January 31.

• The new draft constitution reduces the number of articles from 98 to 95, creates a unicameral kurultai with 145 deputies, a new advisory body of the Halyk Kenes and restores the post of Vice President. The procedures for appointing judges and heads of government are also being changed, restrictions on protests are being introduced, the supremacy of the Constitution is being consolidated, and the Ombudsman and the legal profession are receiving constitutional status.

• The new constitution proposes to focus on the development of the economy and infrastructure. The government should prepare a growth strategy, reduce inflation, and modernize oil refining.

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• The country will also focus on solving systemic problems in animal husbandry, as well as on the sustainable development of the petrochemical sector. In addition, tasks have been set for digitalization through the QazTech platform, the creation of a center for the transformation of professions, the launch of a unified medical information system, and preparation for floods and droughts. Support for medium-sized businesses, the development of motor transport and the transformation of the city of Alatau into the center of a new investment cycle are also among the reform priorities. All amendments are proposed to be adopted through a national referendum.

• The expert community points out the shortcomings of the project. In particular, there are no guarantees of free medical care and legal aid, there are inconsistencies in the powers of the authorities and a lack of checks and balances. However, these issues will still be discussed before the draft is put to a referendum.

Course change

• President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev linked the amendments to the constitution with the logical continuation of the course of political modernization, which has been implemented in recent years. In particular, he recalled the constitutional changes of 2022 and noted that the current initiative actually raises the issue of a deep revision of the basic principles of government. According to him, this is not about point adjustments, but about rethinking the entire management system.

• The updated Basic Law is aimed at a more even distribution of powers, strengthening the mechanisms of checks and balances and increasing the stability of political institutions. Tokayev also noted that the idea of prioritizing the interests of citizens over the interests of the state has received a more applied expression in the project.

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Multifactorial influence

There are several reasons for the constitutional reform in Kazakhstan. The authorities talk about the need to update the political system and adapt it to new conditions, explaining this by the obsolescence of the current constitution. However, the transition to a unicameral parliament and the rhetoric about changing the "super-presidential" model to just a presidential one do not change the essence of the system of government, but only create the appearance of reforms.

• The second important motive is to demonstrate a foreign policy course towards democratic standards. Through the reform, signals are sent to international structures, including European ones, about their readiness to move towards the West. In particular, changes have been made regarding the use of the Russian language. In the new version of the Constitution, it will not be "equal", but "along" with Kazakh. Even such point-based language adjustments can be considered as symbolic gestures showing a certain distance from the previous vector and the desire to look more acceptable in the eyes of Western partners.

In addition, Tokayev's key hidden task is related to the future transit of power. The issue of the timing of the departure of the current president remains open, despite public statements about the lack of plans for their revision. If the parliament becomes manageable, Tokayev will potentially be able to initiate decisions beneficial to the current government, including scenarios for extending political influence. That is why the establishment of the vice-president institution and the restructuring of the entire government architecture will be beneficial.

• The declarations on democratization conceal a desire to consolidate control, ensure continuity, and keep power in the hands of a narrow circle. This approach is typical for the entire post-Soviet space, where the real motives for reforms often differ from public explanations.

Influence on the political system

• Currently, the key task for the current government remains to maintain and strengthen personal control over the political system. After Tokayev came to power, preparations began to change the rules of the game. The result was the 2022 referendum, which changed the parameters of the presidential term. Instead of two five-year plans, one seven-year period was introduced, which then made it possible to actually restart the countdown of powers through early elections.

• As a result of these decisions, Tokayev's term in office was extended until 2029. Now, several years before its completion, new steps are being taken aimed at consolidating influence through the future configuration of institutions. Strengthening the role of parliament is a possible foundation for the future, in which, after formally resigning from the presidential post, Tokayev can take a key position in another branch of government without violating his own constitutional restrictions.

• It is also possible that over time, the presidency will become more symbolic, and the real levers of government will be concentrated in parliament and the government, as is the case in some European countries. At the same time, there are changes in the legal and criminal sphere, oriented towards Western models, including the adoption of norms typical of American legal practice, for example, mandatory clarification of the rights of detainees.

• The main risks of constitutional changes may be a further concentration of power in a narrow circle of loyal individuals and a weakening of the real influence of citizens on decision-making. Formal democratic procedures may be maintained, but the distance between public participation and the actual governance of the country will grow. At the same time, it is not yet clear whether the parliament and the Cabinet are ready to immediately accept expanded powers.

When writing the material, Izvestia interviewed:

• Vladimir Lepekhin, Director General of the Institute for the Study of Development Problems of the Eurasian Economic Union EAEU;

• political scientist Alexei Yaroshenko.