The economist spoke about the consequences of Macron's recognition of the EU's dependence on US gas

The shift in Europe's dependence on the energy sector from Russia to the United States, which is now the main supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to the European Union (EU), indicates a change in the market model. With such changes, Russia will remain a strong export player due to the reorientation of supplies to other destinations, Evgeny Shatov, a partner at Capital Lab, told Izvestia on February 10.

According to him, the shift in Europe's dependence on American LNG can be seen as a change in the market model: from long-term supplies via pipeline routes to a more flexible one, where price, logistics and geopolitics are key factors.

"[French President Emmanuel] Macron actually recognized this reality: the United States has become a key supplier of LNG to the EU, with a share of about 60% appearing in public estimates. The impact on the energy market is manifested primarily in the growing role of global LNG prices and competition with Asia," said Shatov.

He noted that the LNG market is a global auction. So, if Asia pays more at a particular moment, then a significant part of the gas supplies will go there. Thus, Europe is currently becoming more sensitive to changes in China, Japan and Korea.

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In addition, as the expert notes, Europe's strategic vulnerability will now also be political. When one key supplier dominates, there is a risk of using energy as a pressure tool, Shatov said.

According to the expert, for Russia, the shift in dependence on American LNG primarily means that it is impossible to return to its former role as Europe's main gas supplier in the coming years.

"Europe has invested in LNG terminals and restructured procurement chains, and according to statistics, the United States has already become the dominant source of LNG for the EU. However, there is another factor: the more Europe relies on LNG, the more it lives according to the logic of the global market. And in the global market, Russia remains a strong export player in the LNG market as a result of the reorientation of supplies to other directions, as well as through indirect effects on prices," he added.

At the same time, according to the expert, in 2026-2030, Russia will accelerate the strategy of the "eastern pivot" and LNG, because the European market has been lost for a long time.

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"The main conclusion for Europe is that dependence on the United States is qualitatively safer than dependence on Russia in the current geopolitical environment, but the price will be higher due to a more market-based and less stable supply model, in which seasonality in winter and Asian demand begin to dictate conditions again," he said.

In addition, he noted that the European market is almost closed for Russia, but the global gas situation remains a factor in revenue growth, provided that the Russian Federation can scale alternative routes and LNG supply chains.

On February 10, Macron acknowledged that Europe's dependence on the energy sector has shifted from Russia to the United States, which is now the main supplier of LNG to the EU. According to the politician, the United States currently imports about 60% of its gas to the European Union.

As reported on February 7, imports of Russian LNG to the European Union in January reached a record high amid the EU's decision to impose a complete ban on Russian gas supplies from 2027. According to analysts, in January 2025, Russian LNG supplies to the EU amounted to 2.05 billion cubic meters. At the same time, imports from the United States and Trinidad and Tobago increased from the American direction.

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