Experts have predicted a difficult scenario for new buildings in 2026

The new building market in Russia in 2026 faces a difficult scenario. This forecast was made by analysts of the real estate aggregator RedCat in a conversation with Izvestia on February 9.

According to the results of the second half of 2025, the country recorded a significant increase in demand for family mortgages — an increase of a record 130% (Sberbank's indicator). But this will be followed by a big drop.

RedCat analysts identify several reasons for such rapid growth: the expectation of changes in the terms of preferential mortgages, developer promotions with discounts of up to 30%, low interest rates of less than 6% without increasing the cost of housing. Also, rising rental prices stimulate the purchase of real estate. For a buyer of an apartment for 15 million rubles, the monthly payment will be about 72 thousand rubles, which is comparable or even lower than renting a similar two-room apartment in the capital.

"Banks have been tightening requirements for participants in family mortgage programs since February 1. According to them, the spouses must be co-borrowers, permanent registration of parents and children is required, and the child must have SNILS. This rule can become a serious obstacle for a part of the population with a negative credit history or who had previously used the program on their own," Elena Kudryavtseva, head of the mortgage department at RedCat, explained to Izvestia.

According to the rules of most banks, a child must be registered at the place of residence of one of the parents, and this parent becomes the main borrower. This practice makes transactions more difficult, especially if the child does not have a permanent residence permit.

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Prices on the "primary" and "secondary" markets will continue to rise, and demand will depend on mortgage rates.

According to statistics published by the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MIA), in the first quarter of 2025, almost a third of children under the age of three were not enrolled. Many families who have already applied for a mortgage face problems with the bank when agreeing on equity participation agreements.

Another important obstacle is the exclusion of foreign citizens and participants in military mortgages from the list of co-borrowers.

Despite a common misconception, military personnel who have NIS (Accumulative Mortgage System) certificates may be exempt from the obligation to act as co-borrowers. Thus, each case is considered individually by the bank, which avoids unjustified refusals.

At the same time, changes in the rules for granting preferential mortgages and differentiated rates depending on the number of children will help maintain stability and increase demand, but decisions on these changes have not yet been made.

RedCat experts predict a difficult scenario for 2026, associated with new rules that could potentially reduce the attractiveness of buying for a significant proportion of the population. To restore positive dynamics, it will require a significant reduction in loan rates to an acceptable level of 12-15% per annum, which will expand the range of market participants and ensure a stable influx of customers.

The decision of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in the coming months will determine the prospects for further development of housing lending and the construction industry as a whole. The industry continues to wait for new regulatory steps that can have an impact on the availability of housing loans and the development of the real estate sector.

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Mikhail Golovnin, Director of the Institute of Economics (IE) of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said on February 3 that regulating mortgage interest rates could make lending more affordable for Russian residents. The expert added that the policy of subsidizing rates in certain groups of regions of the Russian Federation can also be implemented at the federal level. He also noted that the possibilities of the budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation are limited by regional preferential programs and do not allow them to be subsidized.

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