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The meaning of the points: why was it necessary to postpone the negotiations in Abu Dhabi
Negotiations on the Ukrainian settlement, originally scheduled for February 1, have been postponed for several days. They are expected to be held on February 4-5, although there is no official confirmation of the date. On the eve of the special representative of the President of the Russian Federation Kirill Dmitriev held consultations with the American side in the United States — it is quite possible that a pause was required to analyze the points raised at this meeting. The main issue for the participants in the negotiation process is still the territorial one. In Ukraine, meanwhile, the collapse in the energy sector continues, accompanied by blackouts and massive water supply shutdowns. You can read about how the situation is changing on the eve of the next round of negotiations in the Izvestia article.
Why have the negotiations on Ukraine been postponed
The next negotiations in Abu Dhabi were supposed to take place on February 1, but in the end they did not take place. The Ukrainian side claims that meetings are now expected on February 4-5.
Meanwhile, on January 31, in Florida, Kirill Dmitriev, the special representative of the President of the Russian Federation, held consultations with Steve Witkoff, the special envoy of the head of the United States, which both sides described as "productive." Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that the suspension of the process initiated in the UAE was necessary for an additional analysis of all the points raised during this meeting.
Kirill Dmitriev, Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation for Investment and Economic Cooperation with Foreign Countries, Head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), and Steve Witkoff, Special Envoy of the President of the United States.
According to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the key contradictions are now centered around the territorial issue, in particular, the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Donbass and control over the Zaporizhia NPP.
At the same time, the format of American participation in the future dialogue remains uncertain. Despite the activity of the negotiators in Florida, Secretary of State Marco Rubio insists that the main track should remain bilateral. The presence of White House delegates at the negotiating table is allowed, but their composition is likely to be updated — Steve Witkoff and Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, who played a very important role in it, may be removed from the process.
Security guarantees may become an important barrier to concluding a possible agreement. Kiev insists on a formula similar to the fifth article of the NATO Charter and the deployment of foreign troops on its territory. In Moscow, such a prospect is called categorically unacceptable: Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko bluntly stated that the presence of Western military personnel in Ukraine is unacceptable.
The situation is also complicated by the discussion about the format of the dialogue itself. Recently, Zelensky has been increasingly talking about the need for a direct meeting with Vladimir Putin, calling it a key condition for discussing borders. However, while the parties are exchanging proposals that look obviously unrealizable, Zelensky is invited to Moscow, and the Russian leader is invited to Kiev. Moreover, even the document itself, which the parties are supposed to discuss in Abu Dhabi, is only the first step in a long settlement process, as emphasized by the US Permanent Representative to NATO Matthew Whitaker.
— It's too early to talk about a real cessation of hostilities. The negotiating groups are working out only the elements related to body swaps and small truces in certain sectors of the front, such as in Zaporizhia or elsewhere. Perhaps the issue of the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Donetsk region, especially from the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, is being raised there," said military expert Andrei Klintsevich.
The general conditions are not yet conducive to concluding a peace agreement. Ukraine and the European Union believe that Russia should make concessions, political analyst Dmitry Solonnikov said in a conversation with Izvestia. According to him, the West is trying to expose Russia as a "weak side" that must agree to a direct ultimatum.
— Neither side will accept the conditions of the other. Until something fundamental happens in this situation, it is impossible to talk about progress," the expert added.
The situation in Ukraine is getting worse even without Russian strikes
Moscow has been observing a moratorium on strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities for several days, and it is still unclear whether it will last until February 4-5. Earlier, Russia agreed to suspend attacks for a week, from January 26 to February 1. Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that this was done at the personal request of Donald Trump.
However, even this pause did not ease the situation of the Ukrainian rear. Against the background of severe frosts, the humanitarian situation in the country is deteriorating day by day. The winter of 2025/26 has already been called the "hardest" for Ukraine. Thousands of houses were left without heating in Kiev after emergency shutdowns.
Moscow has repeatedly stressed that the destruction of infrastructure is retaliatory and aimed at degrading the military potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
— We initially believed that by destroying the energy system, we were depriving Ukraine of the opportunity to produce equipment and transport troops. It was a strategy that produced results in the demoralization of the Armed Forces of Ukraine," Dmitry Solonnikov explained.
Meanwhile, emergencies in the Ukrainian energy system occur without any external influence. On January 31, accidents in several areas were caused by a technical malfunction on the lines connecting Ukraine and Moldova: the automation went off, and the outages cascaded. This led to a metro stop in Kiev and interruptions in the water supply, which is critically tied to the pumps.
The problems will increase: according to media reports, the available energy generation in Ukraine is only 11 GW with a demand of 18 GW. The stability of the power grid itself remains a separate risk factor.
— The question is how much the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be able to resist, — said Solonnikov. — We understand that the half-life of the Ukrainian front is underway. We are waiting for it to collapse in one place or another and a broad offensive by the Russian Armed Forces may begin. Actually, this may be the end of the conflict.
At the same time, the situation inside Ukraine is unlikely to lead to a political explosion, the expert argues. There will be no regime change from the inside — you can't count on that, he concluded. Although, of course, corruption scandals in circles close to Zelensky still cause serious damage to the current authorities.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
