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Standing peacefully: what to expect from a new round of negotiations between Russia, the United States and Ukraine
Moscow, Washington and Kiev have made some progress in resolving the Ukrainian conflict at the Abu Dhabi talks, analysts interviewed by Izvestia believe. The next round of dialogue in the UAE is scheduled for this week. The first meeting of the parties was productive, although no specific agreements were officially announced. In the meantime, the main result is the resumption of direct negotiations between Moscow and Kiev, the last round of which took place six months ago in Istanbul. However, against this background, the Ukrainian Armed Forces' attacks on Russian regions have intensified, and their goal is either another disruption of the negotiation process or the inclusion of European representatives in it, the Russian Foreign Ministry told Izvestia.
The results of the negotiations on Ukraine in the UAE
A new meeting of the delegations of the Russian Federation, the United States and Ukraine may take place in Abu Dhabi as early as next week, a number of media outlets reported, citing their own sources. In the meantime, the negotiators are returning to their capitals to report to the leadership and receive new instructions. There are no official results yet — all participants only call the conversation "constructive" and "productive." However, it can already be said that the main outcome of the meetings in the UAE is the launch of the Russia—USA–Ukraine trilateral format. Earlier, American President Donald Trump spoke about the need for such a negotiation scheme.
— Everything went as well as possible. We're happy with the way things are right now," one U.S. official told reporters.
US President Donald Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff at the 56th Annual World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, January 22
The negotiation process on the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine intensified last week. The American delegation, led by Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and entrepreneur Jared Kushner, first met with Russian negotiators led by Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, and then visited Moscow. There, representatives of the United States, including Witkoff, Kushner and Commissioner of the Federal Procurement Service of the United States Joshua Grunbaum, were received by Vladimir Putin. This meeting lasted about four hours.
The world saw the results the next day, when negotiations of the trilateral security working group with the participation of Russia, the United States and Ukraine began in Abu Dhabi. They lasted for two days— on January 23 and 24. On the first day, the meeting lasted about four hours, on the second — about three, and the discussions were held behind closed doors from the press. According to the Associated Press sources, the participants worked both at a common table and in separate groups, and Russian and English were used for communication.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, Special Envoy of the President of the United States Stephen Witkoff and son-in-law of the President of the United States Jared Kushner during a meeting in Moscow, January 22
Judging by the composition of the delegations, the main issue was the topic of security and the situation on the ground. The Russian delegation included representatives of the Ministry of Defense, headed by Admiral Igor Kostyukov, Chief of the General Staff's Main Directorate. Kyiv was represented by Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Rustem Umerov, Head of the Office of the President Kirill Budanov, head of the Servant of the People faction David Arakhamia and Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Andrei Gnatov. The American negotiating group included Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, Commissioner of the US Federal Procurement Service Joshua Grunbaum and Commander of the NATO Joint Armed Forces in Europe Alexus Grinkevich.
A meeting of the Russia-USA bilateral group headed by Kirill Dmitriev and Steve Witkoff was also announced. Among other things, the parties intended to discuss Russian assets frozen in the United States.
According to the Axios portal, the parties discussed issues related to the territories and control of the Zaporizhia NPP, as well as possible de-escalation measures. The negotiating teams also discussed several documents on a peaceful settlement at once. It is not specified which ones, but earlier Moscow and Kiev exchanged memoranda with the terms of the ceasefire, and the United States prepared four 39-point agreements.
The first assessments indicate that there is some progress in the negotiations. The willingness of the delegations to work behind closed doors, without provocations and leaks to the media is also important, Oleg Karpovich, Vice Rector of the Diplomatic Academy, told Izvestia.
— The composition of the delegations indicates that significant attention is being paid to both military and economic tracks. There is a deep expert study of the most important issues, which cannot but inspire us with cautious optimism," the expert believes.
The meeting of the heads of delegations participating in the trilateral negotiations between the United States, Russia and Ukraine, organized by the UAE, at the Al-Shati Palace in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, on January 23
One of the Axios interlocutors said that we are "close to meeting" Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zelensky. The Kremlin has repeatedly stressed that such a meeting "should be well prepared so that it can finalize the developments that must first be implemented at the expert level." By the way, in September last year, the Russian president already invited the Ukrainian leader to come to Moscow for talks, to which Zelensky refused.
Who is trying to disrupt the negotiation process
Earlier, the Financial Times newspaper wrote that the American and Ukrainian delegations at the talks in the UAE want to offer Russia a so—called energy truce - guarantees to stop attacks on energy infrastructure. This approach is due to the fact that the collapse of the rear will inevitably lead to the collapse of the front, which Washington and Brussels clearly do not want to allow, Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies, said in an interview with Izvestia.
— This proposal does not give much to Russia, it is not new and has already been discussed before. Moreover, stopping attacks on energy infrastructure is clearly more beneficial for Kiev than for Moscow. For Ukraine, this is the time to restore and stabilize the rear," the expert believes.
Meloyan notes that the strategies of both Moscow and Kiev remain the same: the continuation of hostilities amid the intensification of the diplomatic track. Everyone sees this as an opportunity to strengthen their negotiating positions, but the situation at the front shows that Kiev is responsible for the disproportionate damage, especially against the background of the systematic destruction of the Ukrainian energy system.
Meanwhile, on the evening of January 24, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a massive Himars MLRS attack on Belgorod. According to the governor of the region, over the past day, 35 settlements in eight municipalities of the region have come under attack from Ukraine. 53 shells were fired and 64 UAV attacks were recorded, of which 31 were shot down and suppressed. The polyclinic building in Kakhovka in the Kherson region was also attacked.
Therefore, it is not a fact that Kiev eventually wants to reach specific agreements. The new attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Russian regions are the result of coordinated actions by Ukraine and Europe, which are trying to disrupt the negotiations in the UAE or to get European representatives to participate in them, Rodion Miroshnik, Ambassador—at-large of the Russian Foreign Ministry for crimes of the Kiev regime, told Izvestia.
— Ukraine is currently in the custody of the European Union and the countries that belong to the Ramstein group. Therefore, such actions are unlikely to have occurred without coordination. Both the Eurotroika and London are seeking to find any options for either ending these negotiations because they are not interested in direct relations between Russia and Washington, or involving representatives of the European Union there to participate as full-fledged players. Therefore, I think that these are coordinated actions between Ukraine and Europe, and they are aimed precisely at preventing a result in the form of a settlement of the conflict," the diplomat stressed.
According to Miroshnik, over the past day, Kiev militants have carried out a number of targeted attacks on medical targets — ambulances and institutions. At the same time, drones were used, that is, it was manual control, the search for specific objects that are related to the medical field, which enjoys international immunity in terms of the Geneva Conventions and international humanitarian law.
— There was frankly an attempt to demonstrate by actions unwillingness or unwillingness to fulfill any agreements. That is, "no matter what we agree on, we will not fulfill it." This is what the Ukrainian side tried to demonstrate," the Ambassador—at-large of the Russian Foreign Ministry believes.
The main stumbling block remains the territorial issue. Russia insists on the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the occupied territory of Donbass. The Ukrainian leadership refuses such a scenario, and the United States is developing intermediate options. Moreover, there is progress on many other topics: last summer, large-scale exchanges of prisoners and bodies of the dead took place, and there is progress on economic issues. Therefore, the next round of negotiations in Abu Dhabi is likely to be devoted specifically to the issue of territories.
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