U.S. pressure will worsen the crisis in Cuba, but it will not change its policy. And here's why

The United States has declared a state of emergency due to the alleged threat from Cuba. This gives American President Donald Trump the authority to impose duties on goods from countries that supply oil to the island nation. Cuba is currently experiencing a profound socio-economic and energy crisis due to a reduction in Venezuelan oil supplies. At the same time, Washington considers pressure on the island as an element of a strategy to oust competitors from the Western Hemisphere. In addition, the United States restricted Cubans from entering the country and threatened the island with a complete naval blockade. How all this can turn out for the island's population is in the Izvestia article.

Humanitarian crisis

• Cuba's economy is experiencing the most severe crisis in the 67 years since the revolution. The country is facing the actual destruction of the social support system, which for many years has been considered a pillar of the state. Massive power outages and skyrocketing food prices coincided with the cessation of oil supplies from Venezuela, an important external energy source for the island.

• Against this background, Cuba is experiencing an epidemiological crisis associated with the simultaneous spread of several infections: Oropush, dengue and chikungunya fever. This is compounded by the general collapse of the healthcare system and an acute shortage of resources. There is a shortage of about 70% of medicines in the country, so people self-medicate or buy drugs on the black market. Lack of nutrition also reduces the chances of recovery.

• Medicines are available mainly to those who have relatives abroad. Doctors and nurses are sick themselves, many institutions are closing, and over the past three years, about 70,000 employees have left the healthcare system, while more than 30,000 doctors have emigrated. The authorities explain the causes of the infectious outbreak by a combination of heat and rains. However, Cubans themselves point to mountains of garbage, interruptions in water supply and the impossibility of regular disinfection – and all three fever viruses are transmitted by mosquitoes.

Crisis in Cuba: the country is experiencing shortages of oil and electricity under pressure from the United States

Will alternative sources help the island?

The daily life of Cubans is rapidly becoming more complicated. There is no electricity in some regions for up to 14-20 hours a day, fuel shortages paralyze transport and garbage collection. The card-based food distribution system, through which rice, beans, sunflower oil, sugar and other basic products can be purchased at very low prices, is malfunctioning due to a shortage of goods. Queues for gasoline for several hours, and sometimes even days, have become commonplace in the country.

• Overall, economic indicators continue to deteriorate. By the end of the third quarter of 2025, GDP had decreased by more than 4%, inflation remained at 14%, and mandatory food supplies were not being met. After the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by the Americans and the strengthening of US control over the Venezuelan oil industry, Cuba received only 35 thousand barrels of oil at the end of 2025. This has hit industry, including the nickel sector, and worsened the energy crisis.

• Private sector stores, legalized in 2021, have become an important place to buy essential goods. However, shopping there is not available for most. So, a dozen eggs can cost more than the average pension in Cuba (about 3 thousand Cuban pesos or 9 thousand rubles). There are also shops where goods, mostly imported, are sold for dollars or using foreign bank cards, including MIR. At the same time, it is not possible to officially exchange pesos for dollars in the country or pay at such a store with a card that has an account in pesos: the conversion of local currency into American currency is not carried out in the country. Dollars can only be bought on the black market or, like most, if a relative from abroad sends them.

• As a result, about a third of the population lives on remittances from abroad, while most of the rest, primarily pensioners, have actually fallen below the poverty line. The crisis has already led to mass emigration. According to various estimates, from 1.4 to 2.75 million people have left the country since 2020. The expert community believes that Cuba's economy is currently in a state of "free fall."

The example is contagious: The United States is thinking about regime change in Cuba

Washington is discussing the possibility of a blockade of oil supplies to the island

• The United States has declared a state of emergency due to the alleged threat from Cuba, which gives the American president the authority to impose duties on goods from countries that supply oil to the island nation. The strengthening of US sanctions is aimed at provoking a social explosion and undermining the constitutional order of Cuba. At the same time, the tightening of the US migration policy initiated by Donald Trump deprives Cubans and other Latin Americans of the opportunity to legally leave, which only increases social tension and makes the situation even more dangerous for the region.

Energy and economic crisis

• Cuba is already facing a sharp shortage of oil: at the current consumption level, the available reserves of about 460,000 barrels will only last for about 2-3 weeks. Since the beginning of the year, the island has received only 84.9 thousand barrels, that is, about 3 thousand barrels per day, whereas in 2025 the average was about 37 thousand barrels per day. The situation is aggravated by the cessation of supplies from Venezuela, as well as irregular imports from Russia and Algeria. According to some reports, the last Russian shipment arrived in October 2025.

• Mexico promises to continue supplying oil to Cuba, but it is not yet clear whether Mexico City will be able to withstand the pressure from Washington, which has already threatened new tariff wars. In the absence of new supplies, the Cuban authorities will probably be forced to further tighten electricity rationing, against the background of regular outages.

• Cuba has been living under an embargo for decades, which was significantly tightened under the administration of Donald Trump, and pressure on Venezuela further complicated the situation. The island's economy is weakened, the country is considered high-risk for investment, and many projects are disrupted due to sanctions against banks and financial intermediaries.

• Venezuelan oil accounted for up to a third of supplies, and its loss amid sanctions led to acute fuel shortages and power outages. Oil purchases in Mexico, Russia or other countries are becoming more expensive due to logistics.

• In these circumstances, Cuba is betting on the diversification and development of renewable energy. Projects in the field of solar and wind generation are being implemented, and residents themselves are actively installing solar panels in an attempt to mitigate the effects of frequent power outages.

However, the possible complete naval blockade of Cuba, which the United States promises, will be an extremely severe blow to the country. The Cuban energy sector is already in crisis due to US sanctions, which have caused billions of dollars of damage to the economy over the past year alone. In total, Cuba has lost more than $150 billion over more than 60 years of American pressure. Own oil production covers only part of the needs, and the cessation of supplies from outside, including pressure on Venezuela and Mexico, can lead to a collapse of the energy sector and exacerbate the humanitarian situation, which is an open violation of international law.

Crowding out competitors

From Washington's point of view, Cuba is important as a geographically close and politically independent country. The United States also continues its policy of ousting competitors from the Western Hemisphere. In this case, the oil embargo is a political signal that tests Cuba's resilience and the international community's ability to contain the escalation of conflicts.

• First of all, Trump aims to oust China from Latin America and, in particular, from Cuba. Chinese companies such as PetroChina Great Wall Drilling Co. and Sinopec are involved in oil exploration and modernization of the Cuban energy sector. China is also helping with food. However, despite the close cooperation, China is disappointed by the slow pace of economic reforms in Cuba and the reluctance to switch to a market model.

• Beijing is likely to continue to act cautiously, based on its own long-term interests and a strategy of gradually increasing influence, avoiding open confrontation with the SCO. Russia can also provide support, as the island remains its traditional partner in Latin America.

What does this mean?

• Cuba is experiencing a deep humanitarian and social crisis in the form of high prices of food, severe shortages of gasoline, daily hours-long power outages, without which pumps do not pump water into homes, and the circulation of several fever viruses amid a total shortage of medicines. Against this background, the United States is further increasing pressure, threatening tariffs to those countries that still supply oil to Cuba.

• This tactic will worsen the suffering of the population, but will not change the political vector of the Cuban Government. At the same time, the military scenario of the "conquest" of Cuba is extremely unlikely, as is the "Venezuelan" one.

When writing the material, Izvestia interviewed:

• Candidate of Philosophical Sciences, specialist in the history of Latin America Alexander Kharlamenko;
• Boris Martynov, Professor at the MGIMO Department of International Relations and Foreign Policy.