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- Revenue support: The Ministry of Finance expects stability of the non-oil and gas sector in 2026
Revenue support: The Ministry of Finance expects stability of the non-oil and gas sector in 2026
The Russian Finance Ministry expects that the non-oil and gas part of the budget will be stable in 2026, Russian Deputy Finance Minister Vladimir Kolychev said. The ministry hopes that it will not be necessary to resort to additional borrowing in the market. Izvestia investigated which sources the Ministry of Finance expects to ensure stability, how they plan to be maintained, and which alternative instruments, in addition to market borrowing, remain with the Ministry of Finance in case of a shortage of income.
Changing the economy
In recent years, there has been a steady downward trend in the share of oil and gas revenues in the federal budget structure, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Economic Policy Artyom Kiryanov told Izvestia. This is a positive development against the background of unstable global markets, sanctions restrictions and external pressure on the Russian energy sector. Such a reorientation is a conscious and long-term strategy of the government, from which it is expected not to deviate further.
"The main sources of growth in non—oil and gas revenues are the manufacturing industry, as well as new and promising technologies, the development of which has serious expectations in the coming years," the deputy believes. — The stability of the budget for at least three quarters is ensured by non-oil and gas revenues, and this structure should be maintained in 2026 and beyond.
According to him, whitewashing the economy and increasing its transparency is also considered an important area. The government is preparing a comprehensive plan in this area that will affect both businesses and citizens.
"It is expected that the legalization of economic activity will lead to an increase in budget revenues and an expansion of social guarantees," the politician explained. — In general, the emphasis is on supporting key sectors that generate non-oil and gas revenues, including industry, agriculture, services and innovation, which is considered as the basis for budget sustainability and fulfillment of the state's social obligations.
Financial structure
The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation assumes in its forecasts that in 2026 the non-oil and gas part of the budget will be able to remain stable due to a combination of measures to increase revenues, stricter cost control and the use of reserves, Ekaterina Shveyeva, associate professor of the Department of Management and GMU at the Faculty of Economics and Management at MGUT Razumovsky, told Izvestia.
— The key focus is on the growth of non-oil and gas revenues: in the draft budget for 2026, they are estimated at 31.4 trillion rubles, which is 12.6% higher than in 2025. This increase is attributed to the whitewashing of the economy and changes in the tax system aimed at increasing collection," she said.
VAT plays a special role as the main source of non-oil and gas revenues of the federal budget, accounting for over 30% of revenues, Ekaterina Shveeva noted. The budget forecast for 2026-2028 considers an increase in the base VAT rate from 20% to 22%, which should significantly increase the revenue base, while maintaining preferential rates for socially important goods and medicines. Excise taxes on alcohol and tobacco, as well as customs duties on imports, also continue to make a significant contribution.
An additional factor in the growth of non-oil and gas revenues is an increase in corporate income tax revenues, which is considered not only as a source of budget replenishment, but also as an element of increasing the efficiency of the tax system and structural changes in the economy.
"In case of significant deviations of oil and gas revenues from forecasts, the accumulated reserves of the National Welfare Fund can be used," the expert noted. — As of March 1, 2025, the National Welfare Fund reached 11.88 trillion rubles. In 2026, it is planned to allocate 38.5 billion rubles from the National Welfare Fund to finance the federal budget deficit. Because the Ministry of Finance makes conservative estimates, taking into account possible risks.
The draft budget takes into account the dynamics of investments in fixed assets, which will decrease in 2026 and then grow at a slower pace than in previous years, she recalled. In general, the stability of the non-oil and gas part of the budget in 2026 will be ensured by the growth of key tax revenues, structural transformations in the Russian economy, improved tax administration and careful budget planning.
The growth of budget revenues is expected to be achieved primarily by increasing tax revenues, Anton Tabakh, chief economist of the Expert RA rating agency, confirmed to Izvestia. In particular, the increase in VAT, reduction of preferential treatment and strengthening tax discipline in the framework of the whitewashing of the economy. An additional factor may be a moderate weakening of the ruble, while income tax revenues are likely to remain low.
— The volume of borrowings in the OFZ market does not look unaffordable, plus new market entries in yuan are possible. The National Welfare Fund remains involved, as its growth due to the revaluation of investments in gold compensated for withdrawals from the fund in previous years, the expert said.
Non-oil and gas revenues of the federal budget in a broad economic sense depend on the volume of GDP, Dmitry Kulikov, senior director of the ACRA group of sovereign and regional ratings, told Izvestia. It is assumed that, relative to the scale of the economy, these revenues should remain relatively stable, despite the tax maneuvers carried out in recent years.
"If non—oil and gas revenues are still not collected due to unfavorable economic conditions, in addition to additional borrowings, there are still, for example, balances that are not included in the NWF," he said.
Earlier, the Ministry of Finance reported that at the beginning of the year, the federal budget may go into a noticeable deficit due to low oil prices and a reduction in oil and gas revenues. According to the ministry's estimates, in January, the shortfall in such revenues may amount to about 230 billion rubles.
In addition, expenses, primarily public procurement, are traditionally actively financed in the first months of the year. Because of this, the deficit looks especially large at the beginning of the year, and this year it may be stronger than usual. In January 2025, the budget deficit of the Russian Federation, according to preliminary estimates, reached 1.7 trillion rubles, or 0.8% of GDP. This immediately exceeded the planned annual deficit at that time, which amounted to 1.173 trillion rubles, or 0.5% of GDP.
At the same time, the Ministry of Finance, speaking about non-oil and gas revenues, noted that in 2025 they were higher than the level stipulated in the autumn budget amendments. The authorities consider this a positive signal and expect that this year such incomes will grow faster than planned, including due to measures to legalize the economy and changes in the tax system.
Izvestia sent a request to the Ministry of Finance, but no response had been received at the time of publication.
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