How Europe can respond to Trump's tariffs. Analysis

In response to the demonstration military exercises that eight European powers held in Greenland to demonstrate their disagreement with American claims to the island, the United States threatened the EU with new duties. The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, stated that the world has completely changed and the EU needs to review its security strategy. How Europe can defend its interests in front of the United States and what its chances are is in Izvestia's forecast.

What the EU has done

• The presence of NATO military forces has become a "Schelling trap," according to Western analysts. Thomas Schelling, a Nobel laureate in economics and one of the authors of the US nuclear strategy, is known for the idea of deploying American troops in weakened West Berlin during the Cold War: the death of the US military in the event of a clash with the USSR would be a reason for a nuclear war. By analogy with this situation, the US invasion of the territory supported by NATO countries could also provoke a serious crisis. As a result, the United States has replaced military threats with economic pressure.

• In response to Trump's statements about his intention to get Greenland in one way or another, Europe suspended a trade deal with the United States, which led to a collapse in markets and a record increase in gold as the safest asset against the background of unreliable national currencies and treasury securities, above $4,800 per ounce (about what an increase in the gold exchange rate means for an investor, we wrote here). The agreement provided for a reduction in duties on most European goods exported to the United States from 30% to 15% in exchange for major EU investments in the United States and increased exports of goods from the United States to Europe.

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• One of the measures already announced is the imposition of duties on American goods in the amount of €93 billion (approximately $109 billion). In fact, these are retaliatory EU duties that were announced with the start of Trump's trade wars in 2025 and suspended until February 6, 2026 due to the conclusion of a trade deal with the United States. France has stated its readiness to apply this measure against imports from the United States, but most European countries have not expressed such an intention, while Germany has stated that retaliatory measures should primarily protect the country's interests, including preserving exports.

What else can the EU do?

• To counter the trade war, the European Union has a tool that was developed in 2023, but has never been used before. In particular, it provides for a number of retaliatory economic sanctions against attempts by third countries to put pressure on the European Union or a state within it, forcing it to make a certain choice or threatening barriers to trade or investment — this is how the new duties announced by Trump can be interpreted. The EU may restrict access to its markets for American companies, revoke intellectual property rights, stop contributions to international unions and organizations, and impose sanctions on individual citizens and businesses.

• The EU is also considering the possibility of abandoning US digital products in order to ensure information security. On January 21, the President of the European Parliament's Economic Council called for the development of a "strategic plan to abandon digital and payment instruments owned by foreign countries." At the same time, the foreign press notes that the EU is significantly inferior to China and the United States in the development of AI and digital services.

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• Europe could pursue new alliances with other major players to expand markets, strengthen economic ties, and ensure its own energy security by choosing an alternative to expensive American energy resources. The European Commission has announced economic diversification, but with Russia and China heavily demonized, there are few opportunities for Europeans to choose partners. The EU has concluded trade agreements with Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay, and is also planning to sign a trade agreement with India.

• The possibility of selling US Treasury bonds to weaken the dollar is being actively discussed in the press. The "sell America" campaign is not happening on the market for the first time, but it is unlikely to lead to a significant result for the United States, since Europe is not a major holder of American debt securities: Japan ($1.2 trillion), Great Britain ($877.9 billion) and China ($688.7 billion) are in the top three, and bondholders The speakers are mainly private investors and corporations.

Risks for the EU

• To impose sanctions against the United States, it will be necessary to make a decision at the European Union level, and it has been difficult to achieve unity among the member states lately. There are no strong enough politicians left in Europe who, like Charles de Gaulle, could defend national sovereignty and make independent political decisions.

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• After abandoning Russian gas and oil, the EU depends on the supply of American liquefied natural gas. In addition, the EU depends on the United States in the military sphere. The Europeans may not have enough of their own weapons and army, given that their resources have been diverted to help Kiev and the continuation of the conflict in Ukraine.

• The termination of membership in international organizations and their support fully coincides with the course of the United States, which is curtailing its participation in international structures. And if the United States completely refuses to support Ukraine, this will lead to the collapse of the EU, since so far all the promises of European leaders to Kiev have been made with the expectation of US participation. On its own, the EU will not be able to continue supporting Ukraine, and the collapse of the "Ukrainian project" may provoke a negative reaction within Europe.

• The EU is forced to make a "choice without a choice." The fact that von der Leyen did not immediately respond to the US threats against the countries conducting military exercises in Greenland led to discontent within the EU. Some European officials point out that the tactic of making trade concessions to the United States instead of opposing Trump does not change the American position in any way and does not benefit Europe. Trump's ultimatum has brought the EU and the United States to the brink of economic war, and how the union will overcome this situation will be of existential importance to it.

• According to experts, the situational trade war between the EU and the United States over Greenland will last no more than a week, after which the Europeans will have to make concessions. But Europe can prolong this confrontation, which creates a general negative background, until the end of 2026 in the hope that the midterm elections in the United States will lead to the loss of control of the Republican Party over Congress, and then Trump will no longer be free to take any action, including against European countries.

During the preparation of the material, Izvestia interviewed:

• political scientist Vladimir Shapovalov;
• political scientist Yuri Svetov.