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- In a cold sweat: Trump's plans for Greenland are sending the Baltic States into a panic
In a cold sweat: Trump's plans for Greenland are sending the Baltic States into a panic
The Baltic states are deeply concerned about the intention expressed by US President Donald Trump to annex Greenland. The connection here is the most direct: the Balts are afraid that the United States, by forcibly taking Greenland away from Denmark, will thereby destroy NATO. Baltic experts warn that if it does not work out in peace about Greenland, this could lead to the end of not only NATO, but also the EU. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
American pressure
Since February 1, the United States has imposed 10 percent duties on Germany, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Great Britain, the Netherlands and Finland, which do not want to give Greenland to Washington. All this news is confusing the leadership of the European Union.: no one there wants a conflict with the United States and does not understand how to counteract them. "China and Russia probably have a real holiday. They are the ones who benefit from disagreements between allies. If Greenland's security is under threat, we can resolve this issue within NATO," laments former Estonian Prime Minister Kaya Kallas, who now heads EU diplomacy. According to Callas, a "tariff war" could make the EU and the United States poorer and undermine their economic situation.
Former Lithuanian Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius, who is now the European Commissioner for Defense, voiced a gloomy forecast: if the United States takes Greenland away from Denmark by force, this will lead to the collapse of NATO, as it turns out that one member of the alliance attacked another. Kubilius desperately implores: "The United States administration probably understands this well too." Therefore, as the European Commissioner hopes, Washington will nevertheless refrain from using force. Andrius Kubilius appeals to American supporters of a "rational approach and common sense", trying to prove to them that the United States should never take Greenland by force. This reaction of the Baltic states Kallas and Kubilius is no coincidence: it was the Baltic countries that took the situation around Greenland particularly acutely.
As a result, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda agreed to the extent that he began to distribute the sovereignty of Greenland, which did not belong to him. "I understand the geopolitical philosophy of the United States, but all this can be done and implemented with the good will of Denmark and Greenland, without any changes in status. Therefore, I believe that the issues of military bases, economic projects and mining can be resolved based on the principle of the participation of all these countries," Nauseda shared his valuable advice. And Lithuanian Prime Minister Inga Ruginene calls on EU countries to maintain continuous contact with Washington, engage in dialogue with it and convince it not to take drastic steps that could shake "common Western unity." By comparison, Lithuania recently strongly rejected Italian Prime Minister Giorgi Meloni's proposal to resume high-level dialogue with Russia. Lithuania's ambassador to the European Union, Nerijus Alexejunas, said that Moscow did not deserve to be talked to: in any case, Vilnius is resolutely against this.
Fear, doubt and hesitation
There are calls in the Baltics not to anger Donald Trump — and then, perhaps, it will be possible to come to an amicable agreement. For example, Inese Vaidere, a member of the European Parliament from Latvia, believes that the EU countries made an "unforgivable" mistake at the time when, during Trump's first term, they did not listen to his demands for a sharp increase in military spending. Now, according to Widere, the EU countries in general, and the Balts in particular, need to "carefully assess who we criticize, what we do." In general, she hopes that Trump will still refrain from taking Greenland away from the Danes - and if he is very lucky, he may be able to set the United States against Russia and China to the maximum. This option, in Widere's opinion, would be the best outcome, literally a gift.
At the same time, as political analyst Maxim Reva noted in a conversation with Izvestia, the countries of the region have to choose between two "big brothers" — Washington and Brussels - against their will. "For a long time, the Balts were perceived as the "pet lapdogs" of the United States in the European Union. However, the Baltic countries are more tied to the structures of the American Democratic Party, which has now been removed from power, and the Balts have always been afraid and disliked by Donald Trump. Now, some ideologues in the Baltic States — but quietly, in a low voice — have begun to compare Trump's plans for Greenland with what they call the "Soviet occupation of the Baltic states in 1940." And that's why voices began to be heard there that since it is no longer possible to rely on the United States, it is necessary to build "our own, European, NATO" and, accordingly, a "European army," Reva notes.
Indeed, one of the signs of the still timid anti-American "willfulness" of the Baltic countries can be considered Estonia's willingness to send a small number of its military personnel to participate in military exercises planned by the European Union in Greenland. Currently, it is planned that Arctic Endurance maneuvers will be held on the Arctic island under the auspices of Denmark with the participation of Germany, France, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Great Britain and the Netherlands. "Latvia has also expressed its willingness to join this process. Perhaps we will send a liaison officer there, and then we will see how it will look in practice. Planning exercises is not a quick process," Estonian Defense Minister Pevkur said last weekend. The head of the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry, Kastutis Budris, also announced his readiness to consider the possibility of Lithuania participating in these exercises.
It is also noteworthy that some Baltic politicians have started talking about the United States with a harshness that has never been seen before in these countries. So, speaking in the Estonian parliament with his first speech in 2026, MP Alexander Chaplygin warned that the European Union was rapidly losing its sovereignty. "It all started with a humiliating trade agreement with Washington. Duties on European goods, an obligation to buy American oil and gas, and to invest in the US economy. This is not an agreement, but a capitulation. Europe is turning into an economic appendage of the United States. Now it's Greenland. The United States has made claims to the territory that historically belongs to Denmark, a state of the European Union. What do we hear from the Estonian government and from Brussels? Timid wishes to respect international law at least a little. Will that stop Trump?" asks Chaplygin rhetorically.
"Excessive dependence" on the United States is no longer satisfactory
Alexander Chaplygin believes that the Americans are no longer interested in Europe in its current form. "In the near future, Trump will try to subjugate all American states, including Greenland and Canada, to the influence of the United States. The United States will not have the resources for Europe. The whole of Europe is now becoming a so-called gray zone, which anyone can claim if they have sufficient strength to do so. And here we are talking not only about Russia, but also about China, which has long been trying to establish control over Europe with the help of economic instruments and "soft power". NATO as an instrument of deterrence is losing its role, as the hegemon is now solving its problems. And the fact that Denmark (Greenland) is a part of NATO does not bother the hegemon," the Estonian politician states.
According to Chaplygin, this situation could end very badly for the European Union — with the complete collapse of this organization. "The Greenland story proves that the EU is unable to protect the interests of its member states," the Estonian parliamentarian emphasizes. In the end, in his opinion, it is possible that the largest EU member states will come to the conclusion that "the European Union will need to be dissolved: the interests of Brussels too openly contradict the national interests of the member states of the union." And this point of view is beginning to resound in the Baltic region more and more often. However, there are also optimists who express the hope that the EU and NATO will be able to be preserved even in the event of a quarrel with America.
Some of the boldest politicians are already calling for "learning to live without America" and "building the European Union as a self—sufficient and independent player" - this, they say, is now the key to survival. "Excessive dependence on the United States, whether economic, political or military, makes partners and allies vulnerable to blackmail. And if someone like Donald Trump turns up in the White House, this opportunity will certainly be used. Although we still strive for constructive relations with the United States, over-reliance on them certainly poses a security risk," said Sven Mikser, a member of the European Parliament and former Estonian defense minister.
This point of view was warmly supported by another member of the European Parliament from Estonia, Urmas Paet. He is confident that the events around Greenland demonstrate the need for a permanent presence of EU military personnel in the Arctic. Also, in his opinion, it is necessary to "rapidly develop cooperation in the field of defense and security within the European Union" — and independently of the Americans to build their own, "European, army." He also expressed confidence that after Donald Trump warned about the imposition of duties against a number of EU countries, the trade agreement concluded last summer between the EU and the United States would not be approved by the European Parliament.
Recently, former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Antanas Valenis and current senior Lithuanian Foreign Ministry official Eitvydas Bajarunas, referring to decisions allegedly already taken on the sidelines of the European Commission, voiced the most likely solution to the Greenland issue. According to them, this will be a "hybrid option" — "when Trump indirectly declares this territory his own, but without using military force." From these omissions, it can be concluded that the EU is considering the possibility of sacrificing Greenland in the name of the notorious "unity of NATO." Otherwise, as Valenis and Bayarunas unanimously admit, the forcible seizure of the island will immediately lead to the irreversible collapse of the alliance.
Maxim Reva tells Izvestia that the fear of the Balts in this case is more than understandable. "The Baltic states are like those canaries in the mine, sensing earlier than others how the factor of disagreement in the ranks of NATO can turn out. They have built their entire foreign and domestic policy on a single vector - fierce hatred of Russia, terrible Russophobia, hopes for the collapse of the Russian Federation and the harsh suppression of their own Russian—speaking communities. And all their Russophobic detachment was built on the fact of their membership in NATO. The Balts were confident that the alliance's "security umbrella" was protecting them from Russia. And now, when, as it seems to them, the alliance is falling apart through Trump's efforts, they are seized with terrible panic at the prospect of remaining one-on-one with Russia. Hence the frantic tossing and searching for a way out: from proposals to "feed" Greenland to Trump, as long as it was somehow "decently" arranged, to the wishes to build a "European NATO," says the expert.
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