Gas to peace: what to expect from the second stage of the Trump plan
The second stage of the US peace plan to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has started in the Gaza Strip. It involves the disarmament of Hamas and the creation of a technocratic Palestinian authority in the region. It will be headed by Ali Shaat, a native of the sector. The prospects for stabilizing the situation in the region are described in the Izvestia article.
A new stage
"Today, on behalf of the President [of the United States Donald] We are announcing the start of the second phase of the president's 20—point plan to end the conflict in Gaza, move from a cease-fire to demilitarization, technocratic governance and reconstruction," Steve Witkoff, special envoy to the US President, wrote on his Facebook page.
He also called on Hamas to return the body of the last hostage, otherwise members of the group will face "serious consequences." It's about Gwili's Wound. According to the Israel Defense Forces, he died in combat on October 7, 2023. He was 24 years old at the time.
In total, as part of the first phase of the Trump plan, all living hostages were released, as well as the remains of 27 of the 28 victims were returned. Witkoff also recalled that "historic" humanitarian aid had been delivered to the sector, and thanked Egypt, Turkey and Qatar for their mediation efforts.
Now the interim administration, the National Committee for the Management of Gaza (NCAG), should take over the management of the region. It will consist of 15 people, and the committee will be headed by Ali Shaath, a native of Khan Yunis and former Minister of Planning of Palestine. The Arabic newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat reports that he comes from a well-known Palestinian family and a large clan in the sector associated with the Fatah movement. Shaath currently resides in the West Bank of the Jordan River.
Hamas has previously stated that it is ready to transfer its responsibilities to a technocratic administration. According to the plan of the American side, the new body will focus on restoring the region's infrastructure, delivering humanitarian aid and coordinating the work of international organizations.
The administration's activities will be supervised by the "Peace Council" under the leadership of the President of the United States. Other members of this structure have not yet been announced, but it is known that Bulgarian diplomat Nikolai Mladenov is being considered as a candidate for the post of Chairman of the Executive Committee. The first meeting may take place on the sidelines of the Davos forum on January 19.
A truce on paper
A significant part of the Gaza Strip is still under the control of the Israeli army. She will be able to leave the region as the International Stabilization Force is deployed. However, neither the timing of their appearance nor the actual powers have yet been determined.
In this situation, the implementation of the second phase of the American leader's plan risks encountering serious difficulties. First of all, this concerns the process of disarming Hamas, said RIAC expert Anton Mardasov.
— In reality, it is not clear how this technocratic committee, which has no clear structure, can contribute to the disarmament of Hamas and replace its administrative bodies. Moreover, for Hamas itself, giving up control may be beneficial: the movement relieves itself of responsibility for the territory, while maintaining control over the situation, the expert notes.
According to him, despite the recent rapprochement between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas, the rivalry between Fatah and Hamas persists.
"Hamas is trying to impose a strengthening of Fatah, but in fact, the situation will not change much — the group will continue to control the situation on the ground, albeit in a more shadowy version," the Izvestia interlocutor emphasizes.
At the same time, political scientist Ilgar Velizade admits that the committee's work can be effective, but only in terms of humanitarian issues — water supply, health, education.
"In this sense, the demand for technocrats is obvious, and such a government is theoretically possible," the expert notes. — But who exactly will make up this technocratic government and what it will look like is an open question. It is quite possible that we will talk not so much about politicians as about managerial personnel, relatively speaking, managers who are able to take responsibility for specific areas of economic life in Gaza.
What's next
The settlement in Gaza under the auspices of the United States resembles the situation in Lebanon, Anton Mardasov tells Izvestia. In Beirut, Washington also plays the role of "good cop," while Israel plays the role of "bad cop."
— But in reality, the situation is not changing: the IDF is not going anywhere, Hezbollah is not disarming. In fact, the United States acts as a biased mediator, while Israel resolves issues everywhere without Washington's interference," the analyst stressed.
The further we go, the more clearly it seems that all the deals concluded by the Trump administration are in the nature of interim decisions, Kamran Hasanov, Doctor of political Sciences at the University of Salzburg, notes in a conversation with Izvestia. The US president creates the appearance of political activity: meetings, statements, memoranda. But all this does not eliminate the root causes of the conflict.
— It will be problematic to resolve the conflict in the Middle East. Israel and Hamas are in a state of deep, almost pathological mutual hatred. Moreover, Israel today feels its superiority, especially against the background of pressure on Iran, and is not ready to make concessions," Hasanov emphasizes.
Formally, the prospects for a settlement remain, but there is still no clear plan for a way out of the conflict, Velizade also adds. Despite diplomatic efforts, military force remains the key factor: under severe pressure, the parties are more likely to adapt to the prevailing reality than to make a political compromise.
"We are not talking about resolving the causes of the confrontation," he said. — Therefore, there is no reason to expect a full-fledged settlement of the Middle East conflict. Although the situation itself is likely to remain within the projected framework.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
