Quietly: why the growth rate of household incomes has slowed down in Russia
In 2025, household incomes continued to grow in both nominal and real terms. However, the pace of this growth turned out to be more moderate than in 2024. This is evidenced by the data contained in the report "Regional Economy: comments of the Central Bank of Russia", presented by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. This situation was mainly facilitated by a decrease in wage growth due to a decrease in labor market tensions. The slowdown in the growth of real incomes of the population is an expected stage of cooling after the previously high rates, experts say. This is a consequence of the normalization of the economy after the shock period, and not a sign of a crisis, they emphasize. Whether the incomes of the population will continue to grow is in the Izvestia article.
The point of growth
The Central Bank presented the report "Regional Economy: comments of the Central Bank of Russia". Among other things, the document analyzes the incomes of the Russian population. Their growth rates in 2025 remained significant, although they slowed down compared to 2024. In real terms, in the third quarter of this year, Russians' incomes increased by 6.3% year-on-year. For comparison, growth was 9.9% in the second quarter and 8.3% in the first quarter.
Analysts attribute the observed slowdown in income growth to the dynamics of the largest component — salaries. The rate of increase decreased in the context of easing labor market tensions, reaching 14.3% in the third quarter of 2025 after 18.5% in the second quarter. In real terms, salaries increased by 4.5% in nine months compared to 9% a year earlier.
Among the leading regions in terms of annual wage growth are the Moscow, Voronezh, Leningrad and Kaliningrad Regions, the Trans—Baikal, Kamchatka and Altai Territories, the Republic of Crimea and the Republic of Tatarstan.
Business surveys show that wage growth will continue to slow down. In 2025, more than 83% of companies surveyed by the Central Bank plan to index salaries. And in 2026, the share of such enterprises will be only 76%.
At the same time, in the total income structure for the first nine months of this year, the share of social benefits increased (+21.9% year-on-year in the third quarter) and income from business activities (an increase of 27.8%). Meanwhile, the share of income from property remained unchanged, while the share of other income decreased.
The regulator recorded the largest increase in per capita nominal incomes in the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, Krasnodar Territory, Orenburg Region, the republics of Udmurtia and Karelia.
"Over the past three years, there has been a significant increase in wages and business income in these regions, and in the sectoral context, in many of the leading regions in terms of income dynamics, the largest wage increases were observed in real estate transactions, administrative activities, construction, information and communications," the Central Bank explained in the report.
The editorial board of Izvestia sent a request to the Bank of Russia. No response has been received at the time of publication.
The course towards normalization
The slowdown in the growth of real incomes of the population is an expected stage of cooling after the previously high rates, says Dmitry Fetisov, co-founder of the Family Capital financial solutions agency, an independent financial adviser.
In the third quarter, in particular, there was a quantitative decrease in wage indexation (due to a decrease in labor market tensions). At the same time, inflation remains at a high level, the expert clarifies.
In many ways, the slowdown in income growth is due to a decrease in business activity, which results in a drop in demand for labor resources, says Ekaterina Kosareva, managing partner of the VMT Consult analytical agency. In particular, the cooling in the housing market has begun to affect the well-being of Russians.
— Fewer new square meters means lower demand for the services of construction and repair companies, building materials, furniture manufacturing and installation services, and household goods, which also affects the manufacturing sector and the incomes of people employed in them. There is nothing to grow incomes from in the absence of positive dynamics for orders and purchases," the Izvestia interlocutor is convinced. The multiplier effect of this, she expects, will be observed in the next two years.
A decrease in business activity is also reflected in the suspension and completion of investment projects, adds Kosareva.
— Companies are eager to finish what they started, but they are in no hurry to start a new one, including due to the tight monetary policy of the Bank of Russia and low profitability. As a result, there is a decrease in demand for labor," she points out.
In general, however, the slowdown in real income growth is a consequence of the normalization of the economy after the shock period, and not a sign of a crisis, emphasizes Yuri Mirzoev, CEO of Mitra National Law Company.
— The acute phase of the shortage of personnel is over, the pressure on salaries has eased. Companies, especially in the consumer sector, optimize costs after active hiring, the expert explains.
Arithmetic mean
The largest increase in household income is observed in the Central Federal District, which is due to the high concentration of business in the IT sector, Ekaterina Kosareva points out. A similar trend is observed in the Southern Federal District, which is explained by the boom in the development of light industry, as well as high employment in the tourism sector.
— The map of regional dynamics of the average monthly nominal salary indicates an increase of 15-20% in regions with a resource orientation (gold and coal mining) and the effect of budgetary infrastructure projects. Industrial and densely populated regions of the European part of the country demonstrate average (or below average) rates of 5-10%, — Dmitry Fetisov draws attention.
In nominal terms, the dynamics of wages remains positive — the average earnings in organizations in September increased by 13.1% year-on-year, reaching 96 thousand rubles. At the same time, in 12 regions the average salary already exceeds 100 thousand rubles, the expert notes.
— In the Moscow region, the average salary is about 115 thousand rubles. While Krasnodar ranks 54th in the ranking of 100 Russian cities in terms of salaries, they pay an average of 82.2 thousand rubles. The level for the Southern Federal District as a whole will be even lower," adds Kosareva.
The industry gap in wage growth remains, but the dynamics have changed over the year, says Fetisov. The traditional leaders in terms of wages — finance, IT, and mining — are showing moderate growth (5-10% YoY).
— At the same time, the highest rates of salary growth are shown by the areas of the hotel business and catering (about 22%), construction (about 21%), as well as the electric power sector (about 18%), — the Izvestia interlocutor lists.
Salary dynamics also differ depending on positions, says Mikhail Merkulov, PhD in Law, Director of the KSK Group Organizational Development Practice.
— Top managers of stagnating industries (construction, manufacturing, metalworking) maintain current income levels without growth and indexation. Reduced top managers cannot be employed for more than six months and accept salaries of 20-30% less," the expert says.
According to the results of the year, working specialties and engineering and technical workers received an average increase of 15-20%, he adds.
— In the field of banking services, the reduction of employee income is realized by optimizing bonus payments with the justification of not achieving annual and quarterly KPIs. The salary part remains unchanged, the staffing is being optimized, and the bonus part is being reduced," the specialist reports.
At the same time, salaries in the field of information technology are decreasing, Merkulov clarifies. We are mainly talking about junior employees with low qualifications who are being replaced by artificial intelligence.
Untapped potential
In the future, the income growth of Russians will continue, but it will turn out to be even more moderate, Dmitry Fetisov believes.
"The main risks of such dynamics are inflationary pressure and a high key interest rate," he points out.
According to Yuri Mirzoev, the income growth potential in 2026 will be associated with increased labor productivity and diversification of regional economies, as well as a reduction in the key interest rate. However, in the medium term, dependence on commodity markets and fiscal policy will remain.
— Raw material regions will retain their leadership, while regions that depend on domestic consumer demand and government orders may face stagnation. Higher taxes may restrain consumer activity, the expert believes.
The dynamics of salaries for highly qualified professions in all areas will grow on average above the inflationary level, as competition for such specialists intensifies, Ekaterina Kosareva predicts. Salaries will also rise in the construction industry, where the need for employees is increasing due to stricter migration laws, and in the field of domestic tourism.
For employers, the situation will continue to deteriorate until the end of the active phase of the special military operation and the stabilization of export-import settlements, predicts Mikhail Merkulov. Double-digit real inflation will remain in the horizon of 2026. How will the trend towards optimizing personnel costs continue?
— It will be implemented through automation, robotization and reductions with the redistribution of the functions of the dismissed to the remaining employees, — the interlocutor of Izvestia expects.
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