Recruitment wave: Russia needs to attract 1.7 million people per year to the economy
Over a seven-year period, Russia will need to replace approximately 12.2 million specialists, and the annual need for an influx of personnel is estimated at about 1.7 million people, said Anton Kotyakov, head of the Ministry of Labor. At the same time, according to Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova, the employment rate among able-bodied citizens is now at record highs. Izvestia analyzed which industries are experiencing the most acute personnel shortage in the next seven years, as well as how the declared volume of replacement needs is distributed by region.
Government assistance
Over the next seven years, the most serious personnel shortage is expected in the manufacturing industry, the construction sector, transport and logistics, medicine and the social sphere, as well as in the IT industry and a number of service areas, Tatiana Tirskikh, Managing Director for Sovereign and Regional Expert RA, told Izvestia.
Already, employers in healthcare, construction, industry, logistics, services, and retail are reporting significant staff shortages. Even in areas that are traditionally considered attractive to applicants, such as information technology and financial services, many companies face a shortage of qualified specialists.
— It is necessary to increase the number of employees in about 40 regions of the Russian Federation, and it is to them that the bulk of the replacement needs will be distributed. The maximum burden from the shortage of personnel falls on Moscow, the Moscow, Rostov regions, Stavropol, Krasnodar, Perm Territories, Tatarstan and a number of other large industrial and fast—growing regions," she noted.
Some regions have already announced their own estimates of the need for personnel, the expert recalled. For example, in Bashkortostan, the annual replacement is estimated at 80-100 thousand people, and in the Perm Region over five years — about 590 thousand.
The government uses a set of measures to reduce the personnel gap, Tatiana Tirskikh noted. In particular, it is modernizing the education and retraining system, expanding targeted specialist training programs and practice-oriented training.
The growth of small and medium-sized companies is noticeably reflected in the increase in the number of employees, Alexander Isaevich, CEO of the SME Corporation, reminded Izvestia. This is especially evident in small settlements, where SMEs form a significant part of economic activity. The support of entrepreneurs helps not only to expand businesses and open additional jobs, but also to reduce the migration outflow of residents.
— To develop small and medium-sized businesses in single-industry towns and special economic zones, the SME Corporation, together with the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, recently launched a special preferential lending program. According to it, SMEs from 26 single—industry towns and 27 SEZs adjacent to them will receive 18.3 billion rubles by 2030," he said.
The interest rate on such loans varies from 6 to 10% per annum. The funds received can be used both to replenish working capital and for investments, Alexander Isaevich noted. Entrepreneurs from the manufacturing industry, tourism, logistics, science and technology, healthcare, sports and other key areas can apply for support.
According to him, a noticeable increase in employment is recorded among small technology companies that have received targeted government support measures and preferential financing from the SME Corporation and the Ministry of Economic Development. On average, one such company accounted for about 24 new jobs, which is about 2.5 times higher than in the MTK sector.
Labor prospects
With record employment in the country, acute shortages persist in certain sectors, especially in housing and communal services, agriculture, construction, industry, logistics, as well as in medicine and education, Sergei Grishunin, managing director of the NRA rating service, told Izvestia. The situation differs by region. The maximum number of vacancies is recorded in large agglomerations, while the most difficult situation is in industrially growing regions, in new territories and in the Far East, where the shortage of personnel is exacerbated by the outflow of population.
To solve the problem, he said, the state is launching the national Cadres project, strengthening the retraining of specialists, developing vocational education, regulating the recruitment of migrants and supporting internal labor mobility. Businesses are responding to staff shortages by increasing salaries in the most needy industries, developing corporate training, flexible forms of employment, and actively moving to automation to reduce dependence on manual labor.
"The current situation reflects a deep structural crisis related to the long—term orientation of the economy towards the raw materials sector," the expert believes. — The temporary decrease in tension in 2024 only shows the exhaustion of opportunities for extensive growth. In the medium term, the struggle for qualified workers will continue, and the key task will be not only to attract new employees, but also to optimally distribute personnel by profession and region.
The greatest shortage of personnel in Russia in the coming years is expected in the working professions of manufacturing, mechanical engineering, transport, construction, as well as in high-tech fields, education and medicine, Inna Litvinenko, a member of the Public Council at the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia. That is, in the areas that are least attractive to generations Z and Alpha.
"As compensation, the state can attract an older generation due to the achievements of medicine," the expert said. — And to form a collective mindset instead of the selfish approach typical of the majority of young people.
According to employer activity data for 2025, the most acute personnel shortage is observed in retail trade (over 1.3 million vacancies), Maria Ignatova, director, told Izvestia. hh.ru for research purposes. In second place is the IT sector, with a particularly high shortage of senior developers, DevOps and cyberspecialists.
According to her, the greatest demand for personnel until 2030 is observed in more than 30 regions, among the leaders are Moscow and the region, St. Petersburg, Tatarstan, Perm and Krasnodar Territories, while the strongest imbalance between the number of vacancies and applicants is typical for the Chukotka and Jewish Autonomous Regions, a number of central regions and Khabarovsk Territory.
Izvestia sent a request to the Ministry of Labor, but no response had been received at the time of publication.
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