We need our own hero: how to stop the extinction of small towns
VTsIOM analysts have published a report on the state of small towns. The situation in most of these settlements is not rosy yet: hundreds of small and single-industry towns in Russia may eventually disappear from the map due to the active outflow of population, the document says. Analysts described how to deal with the problem using the example of Rzhev in the Tver region, emphasizing, however, that "all unhappy cities are unhappy in their own way." Izvestia investigated whether this is really the case, whether Russian small towns have a future and where to look for it.
What is stated in the report
The report is dedicated to small and medium-sized cities. Up to 50 thousand people live in small towns, there are more than 800 of them throughout the country. Up to 100 thousand people live in average cities, and there are more than 150 of them. According to the report, the middle ones are in the greatest danger, because their initial potential was calculated "not only for the local population to live here happily, but also for the agglomeration to become a local center of attraction for young people from smaller towns and rural settlements." But now "big" small towns themselves need to be revived."
"Hundreds of small and single-industry towns in Russia may eventually disappear from the map of Russia due to the active outflow of population. Young people are leaving the city, the older generation is inevitably declining, new residents are not coming, and the total number of households is decreasing from year to year," the report says.
There is no single reason for this, even the earnings of people in small towns are important, but not the main thing. The report concludes that the "overwhelming" atmosphere in a small town consists of several factors: insufficient infrastructure, limited career and educational opportunities, and a lack of meaning.
"The best future of a small town begins with the architecture of social change. It is based on the figure of the main actor of changes in the territory.: who is most interested in change, who is ready to take responsibility for the territory and go through a long and difficult path?" — VTsIOM analysts say.
Such actors can be a mayor, a corporation, federal authorities, and a community of local residents focused on the development of the city. They can "build a new identity of the city or expand and complement an existing one," build new points of attraction, develop events, tourism, industry, and so on.
VTSIOM Consulting experts chose the city of Rzhev for the analysis. Now it is formally an average city with a population of just over 52 thousand inhabitants, although in 1992 it was more than 70 thousand. It was destroyed during the Great Patriotic War, so it went through a trajectory change earlier than other small and single—industry towns - it just had to start life from scratch.
How cities die
VTsIOM analysts have identified several stages of the "dying" of cities that had a prosperous past. They should have a "breaking point" — for Rzhev, this is the destruction of the war, for the city of Kizel in the Perm Region, this is the decline and gradual cessation of coal mining. Then comes the stage of "blurring the picture of a positive future, loss of meaning." Opportunities are being reduced in the city: enterprises, universities, schools, and clubs are closing. The outflow of young residents begins, followed by the older ones, followed by adult children.
Population decline can be rapid. In the case of Apatites in the Murmansk Region, from 88,000 in 1989 to 48,000 in 2024.
Although the problems are different everywhere, in general, their presence is typical for most small towns. Thus, research by the VTsIOM analytical center shows that in such settlements there is significantly less optimism among young people: if 53% of people aged 18-24 look positively at the future in millionaires, then 38% in medium—sized cities, and 33% in small towns.
ESG Alliance and Reksoft Consulting also conducted their study of the situation with the outflow from cities in 2025. Its results were presented in November (available in Izvestia).
Ivan Champurov, manager of the practice "State and Social Initiatives" at Reksoft Consulting, noted that regardless of the scale of the city, the attractiveness factors for its residents are about the same.: These are decent wages, affordable cost of living, high-quality medicine, comfortable housing and a favorable environment.
But in small towns, the available "advanced urban services" are rated worse. These include the rhythm of the big city, the diversity of cultural life, the aesthetic appeal of the urban environment, and the variety of shopping malls, bars, and restaurants.
Are small towns really dying out
Alexander Puzanov, Director General of the Institute of Urban Economics Foundation, notes that it is not entirely correct to interpret the report as indicating the threat of the "disappearance of small towns." Rather, it is a question of medium-sized cities losing their potential as interregional centers and turning into "ordinary" small towns with a population of less than 50 thousand inhabitants.
— Actually, small towns lost about 6% of their population, or about 1 million people, between the last population censuses in 2010 and 2021. At the same time, the population has grown in every fifth small town, and a number of cities that have lost their population cannot be classified as depressed. The concept of "extinction" can only be applied to a very small number of small towns," the source told Izvestia.
According to him, the percentage of developing small towns is not so small, they are usually localized in certain territories: within the borders of large agglomerations, on coastal territories, etc.
Artemiy Pozanenko, an expert at the Khamovniki Foundation for the Support of Social Research, also believes that "almost none of the small towns will completely disappear in the foreseeable future." However, depopulation continues, he stressed.
"Even tourist centers like Suzdal and Pereslavl—Zalessky are still showing population decline, although I believe that sooner or later they will enter the growth stage," he told Izvestia. — It seems to me that the outflow potential is gradually decreasing.
According to him, there are several reasons for this: the gap in earnings between regions and the center is narrowing, infrastructure for life is being created in small towns, and it is often more accessible — you can send a child to kindergarten without waiting in line, go to a half-empty parking lot or a swimming pool. And the improvement and creation of the urban environment "was undertaken almost everywhere." According to Artemy Pozanenko's observations, some people from small towns began to return there.
Arseniy Kiselyov, an urbanist and commercial director of the MAF Novalur plant, also notes that the increasingly popular concept of "slow life" in Russia provides opportunities for the growth of such cities — but, again, mainly those settlements located within a radius of up to 30 km from large urban centers.
"But there are also cities that have already declined below critical levels over the years of depopulation and are unlikely to recover without some kind of external influence," adds Artemy Pozanenko.
Ivan Champurov emphasizes that the decreasing population dynamics in itself does not mean "movement towards extinction."
— In many cases, this is a sign that the city has not yet reached the demographic and functional optimum within the current settlement system. Small towns are indeed reducing their population, but in medium and large ones, the rate of decline has been higher since 2018. According to Rosstat, from 2018 to 2024, the population of small towns decreased by 0.7%, medium—sized towns by 4.8%, and large towns by 1.9%. Only large, major cities and those with millions show growth," he noted.
Who saves cities
Positive changes are possible, experts are sure. To do this, a small town must have someone who will take responsibility for its future. It's not necessarily a person. VTSIOM analysts identify four models of social change.
Oil pumps in Kogalym city
The first is the "territory of presence", when a large enterprise assumes responsibility for the fate of the city. There are many such examples: Kogalym, in which Lukoil plays a major role, Tobolsk, which is developing with the participation of Sibur, etc.
The second is the "modern cluster". In this situation, the fate of the city is interfered with by the federal government or agencies that are responsible for the implementation of a city-specific profile.
The third model is the "locomotive man", when a small town owes much of its development to an active person, more often to the mayor.
The fourth is the "civic initiative", when the city leads a community of caring citizens forward.
Ivan Champurov believes that more stable territories are cities where large companies operate.
— Among such cities, the "20 to 80" formula is evident: in a sample of about 100 small and medium-sized cities, about 20% show signs of growth. In the full population of small towns, this proportion is probably lower. But it is incorrect to say that 80% of these cities will gradually die," he said.
Vladimir Yamshchikov, the founder of the Terinomika project, notes that the company does not always allow a single-industry town to develop: there are examples when the company does not cope with this task. However, the settlement does not die by itself.: it fades away when it stops interacting, creating meaning, and giving people a reason to stay.
— The share of cities in the stage of active development is about 20-25%. And these are the places where it was possible to launch live processes: not one—time grants, but stable ties between residents, businesses and the administration," the Izvestia interlocutor noted. — In my practice, such cities are recognized immediately: there are local leaders here who gather people around real tasks, from street improvement to tourist routes. The problem of the others is the lack of such "inner energy".
Of the models proposed by VTsIOM, he calls the most stable civil initiative, but "with moderation from the head or business."
— When residents take on microinitiatives, the city comes alive. The head here does not act as a dictator, but as a facilitator: he creates a space for dialogue, removes barriers," said Vladimir Yamshchikov.
Artemy Pozanenko notes that active citizens are not a very common story and it is usually associated with small towns that have a significant heritage. And paradoxically, the activists are newcomers who preserve culture, while the locals do not need it: apparently, you need to go through a large city to start appreciating a small one.
He considers the creation of a cluster in the city to be the most sustainable model: an industrial park, for example. In such situations, small towns may be granted the status of Territories of Advanced Socio‑Economic Development (TOCER, TOP) or special economic zones (SEZs) with tax benefits and simplified administrative procedures. Moreover, the Ministry of Economic Development proposed to change support for single-industry towns in 2025, recognizing it as not very sustainable, and focus on small and medium-sized businesses.
The appearance of one leader can also work. This happened in Uglich when Eleonora Sheremetyeva became the mayor of the city, says Yuri Shchegolkov, director of the Foundation for the Development of Small Historical Towns.
— In the 2000s, the factory there, their city-forming enterprise, which made watches, was closed. And there were only tourists who sailed on motor ships and went to the federal museum. They ate on the ship, lived on the ship, and the income from museum tickets went to the federal budget. The residents of Uglich could only catch these tourists between the marina and the federal museum. The city received nothing. And then a strategy for the development of tourism in the city was adopted. In 10 years, 300,000 tourists who spend nothing have turned into almost 1 million tourists who come to the city, stay in hotels, pay for a restaurant, gasoline, etc., he said.
According to him, Uglich now has many private museums, a dozen and a half hotels, and it is a modern city where a young man from Moscow, accustomed to comfort, feels at home. However, unfortunately, there are not many such cases, Yuri Shchegolkov admits.
Alexander Puzanov notes that all models can work under certain conditions. But it is always important that local communities and elites are not passive consumers of initiatives and resources coming from outside.
What does the state do?
Experts remind that the country has adopted a Strategy for spatial development and the formation of a network of anchor settlements until 2030. These are places that become centers for providing social, administrative, and economic services to neighboring territories. There are 2,160 localities on the list of NPOs, ranging from the largest cities to large rural settlements. They receive priority support to create high-quality infrastructure.
— At the same time, not all small towns are included in the list of stronghold settlements, and it is not yet known how this will affect their development, — said Artemiy Pozanenko. — And in the context of the municipal reform, they began to talk about the possible unification of districts and districts, as a result of which the former small district centers will become new united municipalities. This can hit the smallest cities with fewer than 10,000 people.
Yuri Shchegolkov considers initiative budgeting programs to be more effective when the Ministry of Finance allocates federal funds to specific city initiatives. In such situations, local residents ask for a park, collect at least 3-5% of the required amount for this, and receive the rest of the funding, carefully monitoring its spending.
"It's better than just developing an urban environment, because the community is involved in this story," he observes.
Nevertheless, in his opinion, the measures taken so far are not enough. It's not just about money: the crisis of small towns is systemic, and it's very difficult to solve it with financial investments alone.
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